Expires:201607252000;;437040
FPUS51 KBTV 250811
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
VTZ006-252000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
410 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S.
$$
Expires:201607251100;;442810
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 63 54 72 SE3 29.92R
MONTPELIER FAIR 56 54 93 CALM 30.00S
MORRISVILLE N/A 55 53 93 CALM 29.97R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 58 57 97 MISG 29.95S
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 56 55 98 CALM 29.99S VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 60 60 100 CALM 29.93S
RUTLAND* FAIR 63 58 83 SE8 29.96R
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 58 56 93 CALM 29.98R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 60 58 94 CALM 29.91S
NEWPORT* FAIR 57 56 97 S3 29.96R
BENNINGTON FAIR 62 58 86 CALM 29.94F
SUTTON* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 52 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A NW24 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 59 77 SE9 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 63 83 S13 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 66 61 82 S2 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;436739
FXUS61 KBTV 250809
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected today along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some of the storms may contain gusty winds...small hail...and heavy
downpours. Quieter weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with
maybe a few showers up near the Canadian Border both days. The above
normal temperatures will continue through midweek as well.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...Potential for strong to possibly severe
storms will exist across the area this afternoon and evening.
Today...convective debris clouds and or some convection is expected
to move across the North Country this morning. Moisture advection
will be taking place and this will be needed to raise dew points
into the 60 to 65 degree range. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures
also moving into the region will combine with clearing skies to
raise temperatures into the 80s to around 90. This should create
CAPE values in the 750-1500 J/kg range with the lower of this range
in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and the higher values of the
range over south central Vermont and the far southern portions of
the northern Adirondacks. Where this greater instability will
develop there will also be increasing flow aloft and this deep layer
shear should allow for storms to become organized and reach strong
to severe levels. Essentially this will be south of a line from
Ogdensburg to Middlebury to White River Junction. North of that line
the potential for strong storms will exist. Thus will maintain
enhanced wording in the forecast of gusty winds and small hail and
include heavy downpours as higher precipitable water values develop.
Potential for these stronger storms will exist between 18z and 03z.
The increasing deep layer shear this afternoon is the result of an
approaching shortwave trough moving into the eastern Great Lakes
late in the day. Dynamic support will be increasing with the trough
and upper diffluence in advance of the trough suggests synoptic
scale lift will be sufficient to have the showers and storms be
fairly widespread in nature. Thus like the idea of likely
precipitation chances just about everywhere this afternoon and into
the first half of the night.
Tonight...as mentioned above any potential threat for stronger
storms will exist until about midnight but precipitation will be
ending from west to east as the evening wears on. No precipitation
is expected after midnight. Clouds and low level moisture will
linger tonight and this will help to keep low temperatures in the
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...Fairly tranquil mid-summer weather
expected for the period. On Tuesday we'll see some daytime heating
cumulus develop across the region (a little more so over the
higher terrain). Can't rule out a lingering sprinkle/light shower
across the higher terrain of northeast Vermont due to slightly
deeper moisture and the relative nearness of the upper trough.
We'll still be an overall west/northwest flow aloft, so the
airmass will continue to be warm as we remain on the far fringes
of the massive heat across the center of the country. 925mb
temperatures Tuesday will generally be in the range of 18C (north)
to 21C (south). This would support high temperatures in the 80s
everywhere, and perhaps pushing 90F in some of the southern
valleys. Decent amount of boundary layer mixing, so by afternoon
we should tap into some slightly stronger winds up at 4000-5000ft.
We should see some gusts in the 20-25mph range in spots.
Clear and calm Tuesday night. High pressure at the surface and weak
ridging aloft will ensure a clear night. Looks like we'll have
patchy fog develop in those typical areas across the 'Dacks and
Eastern Vermont as overnight lows are expected to drop below the
crossover temperature (dewpoint value midday Tuesday). Lows across
the region will range from the 50s to lower 60s.
Wednesday should be a very warm to hot summer day. With the
continued westerly flow aloft, a little bit more of that heat off to
our west will advect in. Guidance is pretty solid in showing 925mb
temperatures of 23-24C. This suggests high temperatures in lower
elevations will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For whatever
reason, the suite of guidance we can look at had a number of members
that only indicated mid-80s for highs, so I ignored all but the
warmest guidance. There will be a weak front lurking north of the
US/Canada border that should spark a few t-storms up there. We'll
stay dry for the day. That front may ooze a bit south during the
evening, so a rogue t-storm along the border is a possibility
Wednesday night. Have kept PoPs only in the 15-25% range however.
Should be a relatively warm night with most of us seeing
temperatures only bottoming out in the 60s. A little muggy as
well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...00z guidance suite in okay agreement
Thursday and Friday, but then start to diverge rapidly for the
weekend and even more so early next week. The 00z GFS has made the
biggest changes from earlier runs, while the ECMWF has been more
consistent, so perhaps that is a signal that the GFS solution is
not as robust? At this point, not too sure, so as typical, kept
with a model blend for the forecast. Some specifics:
Thursday/Friday: Looks like some height falls across the northeast
US as an upper trough settles in across eastern Canada. Models also
show moisture pooling into the region from the west and southwest.
So can't rule out a few showers. Doesn't look like a lot of
instability, so t-storms might be limited (but don't hold me to
that). With the slight lowering of heights, temperatures aloft will
also cool down a bit. Looking more like 925mb temperatures of 18-20C
Thursday which would support low-mid 80s for highs and then even a
bit cooler Friday. Went with the model blend for PoPs, so I've got
a good amount of 20-30% chance of showers both days. Could be that
one of those days ends up totally dry, but too much variability in
the models to have high enough confidence in that.
Saturday/Sunday: As we go into the weekend, the ECMWF swings a
shortwave through on Saturday night and then parks it just to our
northeast, keeping us in slight troughiness into early next week. At
face value that would mean showers/t-storms over the weekend and
then slightly cooler than normal temperatures. The GFS on the other
hand, departs from previous runs, and does not have that shortwave
any more. In fact by early next week it is building the heat wave
ridge north and east across the Great Lakes and into the northeast.
Not sure if I buy that right now. So the forecast features a blend
that turns out to be pretty much a climatological normal forecast.
Highs in the 70s to lower 80s with a chance of showers. Don't
cancel outdoor plans at this point, as that weekend forecast is
bound to change between now and then as we gain clarity.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions will exist through much of
the period. However...between 18z and 03z we are expecting
scattered showers and thunderstorms to move east across the area
resulting in brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty
winds and moderate to severe turbulence. At this time the
locations likely to see these lower flight categories are
KSLK...KPBG...KBTV...KMPV...and KRUT. Light winds this morning
becoming south and southwest this afternoon at speeds in the 5 to
15 knot range.
Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...
06z Tue - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR under high pressure. Isolated
showers possible Wed/Thu afternoons.
00z Fri - 00z Sat: Increasing chances for widespread MVFR showers
and isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
The threat for thunderstorms will exist this afternoon into early
evening across Lake Champlain. Storms will move west to east
across the lake and as has been the case with the last three
weather events...any storms will have the potential to produce
gusty winds...small hail...heavy downpours...and frequent
lightning. Boaters should keep an eye on the sky this afternoon
and evening and have a plan in place to seek safe harbor at the
first sign of threatening weather. Stay tuned to our latest
forecasts and any lake thunderstorm advisory that gets issued.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff
MARINE...Evenson
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