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| Date: | Wed, 7 Sep 2016 06:50:01 -0400 |
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Expires:201609072000;;061909
FPUS51 KBTV 070805
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
VTZ006-072000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
403 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HUMID WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
$$
Expires:201609071100;;067730
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 65 60 84 SE3 30.08R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 62 61 96 SE3 30.16S
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 61 59 93 CALM 30.12R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 61 59 93 MISG 30.11R
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 60 60 97 CALM 30.15R VSB 3/4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 66 66 100 SE5 30.09S
RUTLAND* CLEAR 65 62 90 CALM 30.11R
SPRINGFIELD FOG 59 58 96 CALM 30.11R VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* FAIR 62 61 97 SE3 30.06S
NEWPORT* FAIR 60 59 96 CALM 30.13R
ISLAND POND* N/A 61 N/A N/A E3 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A W15 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 64 83 SE12 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 66 88 S18 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 64 88 S5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;063983
FXUS61 KBTV 070845
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
445 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be over the
north country through tonight. A weak cold front will approach fro
the Great lakes late Thursday and Thursday night. This frontal
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. A weak ridge of high
pressure will be over the north country on Friday. The next chance
for showers will be late Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 435 AM EDT Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure at the
surface and aloft will remain over the north country through
tonight. Expecting mostly sunny skies today, with some partly
sunny skies over eastern Vermont, as satellite loop showing some
low clouds approaching southeast Vermont at this time. Some patchy
fog around early this morning, but not as much as yesterday
morning. Any fog will burn off by mid morning. expecting highs to
be mainly in the 80s today.
Tonight, expecting increasing high clouds from frontal system over
the Great Lakes tonight. A rather humid night for early September,
with lows mainly in the 60s tonight. Given increasing clouds
tonight have held off on any mention of fog at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...
It looks very warm (85-90) and humid (dewpoints mid 60s to
lower 70s) on Thursday with a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms between 20Z-04Z with a pre-frontal trof and a cold
front. Thunderstorms could be locally strong producing gusty
winds and heavy downpours. Also southwest winds could gust over
30 mph in the St. Lawrence Valley.
On Thu GFS/NAM still differ greatly on moisture and instability
with 500-1000 J/kg CAPE on the GFS and an axis of up to 1500 J/kg
MUCAPE on the NAM. The highest CAPE looks like it will be during
max heating and located from BTV westward with a maximum in the
St. Lawrence valley where dew points will make it into the lower
70s. CAPE profiles are of the tall narrow character with weak
lapse rates mainly less than 5 C/km leading to weak but tall
updrafts. 0-6km shear increases to 25 to 35 knots perhaps as high
as 40 kts in the far north suggesting a chance of severe with a
pre-frontal trough especially nrn NY. Also of note is plume of
precipitable water of 2+" (NAM shows upwards of 2.5" in showers
and storms) and warm cloud depths up to 4.5+ km which suggest any
storms could produce locally downpours. 850 temps continue warm
around 17C so highs again well into the 80s on Thu and near 90
still possible but will depend on cloud cover.
A cold front will follow late Thu night with continued chance of
showers and storms diminishing to perhaps some lingering
mountain showers by midnight. Lows mild and mainly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...
Models continue in good agreement and run to run consistency
leading to decent confidence in the long term forecast.
Main weather features are a warm front on Saturday followed by
a cold front Sat night/early Sunday with more showers and storms.
After the frontal passage cooler and less humid air will
arrive Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the
region.
Looks like clearing and drier Friday with some high clouds
around as surface high and upper level ridging. Highs Friday
somewhere in the 70s to lower 80s with 850 temps near 13-14C.
A strong upper level trough and frontal system approach with
showers and slight chance of thunder with a warm front on Sat.
Then a cold front early Sunday morning. Some clearing is possible
by later on Sunday with cooler temperatures. High generally in
the 70s to near 80 with clouds and chance of showers. Temps could
be tricky however with the warm front passing through on Sat and
cold advection on Sunday.
By Monday a northwest flow of cooler and much less humid Canadian
air will bring temps in the 70s with 850 temps around 10C.
A bit milder by Tue as flow begins to back around to southwest
and 850 temps recover back to 11-13C with highs in the 70s to
lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period, as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft
remains over the region. Some areas of fog and mist possible in
the valleys with local pockets of MVFR/IFR possible until 12Z
Wednesday.
Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... Surface trough approaching
from the west will bring a chance for showers Thursday afternoon,
including a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Gradient flow is
briefly strong from the SW ahead of the trough. SW gusts to
25-30kts are possible at MSS/SLK with the stronger gradient flow,
and also potentially with any shower activity. A Stronger frontal
system Saturday night into Sunday will bring more widespread
shower activity with MVFR conditions and intervals of IFR
possible. Wind gusts in excess of 25KT again possible BTV-MSS- SLK
Saturday night into Sunday, mainly in strong southerly flow in
advance of the frontal boundary.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Banacos/WGH
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