Expires:202004222000;;006669
FPUS51 KBTV 220702
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020
VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
300 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020
.TODAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Snow
accumulation a dusting to 1 inch possible. Blustery with highs in
the mid 30s. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph,
increasing to 45 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers
until midnight, then clear after midnight. Blustery with lows
around 18. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
Chance of snow 20 percent.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Gusts up to 30 mph in the morning.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and
variable winds.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Northeast winds
around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain and snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in
the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows around
30. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
$$
Expires:202004221100;;016038
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 22 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 28 11 48 W13G26 29.62R WCI 17
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 24 10 55 NW17G26 29.58R WCI 11
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 24 14 65 NW10G18 29.57R WCI 14
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 25 19 78 MISG 29.52R
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 22 15 73 SW21G33 29.53R WCI 7
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 27 13 54 W5 29.62R WCI 22
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 27 12 53 W14G21 29.62R WCI 16
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 29 12 49 W22G36 29.59R WCI 15
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 27 15 61 W8G24 29.62R WCI 19
NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 22 16 78 W14 29.53R WCI 9
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 28 13 53 SW7 29.66R WCI 21
LAKE EDEN* N/A 23 N/A N/A SW8 N/A WCI 14
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 12 N/A N/A N45G59 N/A WCI -13
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 30 19 64 W26G37 N/A WCI 16
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 30 18 59 NW23 N/A WCI 17
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 30 18 59 NW5 N/A WCI 25
$$
Expires:No;;007453
FXUS61 KBTV 220717
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cold conditions are expected today as Canadian
high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures moderate on
Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, though largely remain on
the cool side of normal. Highest precipitation chances occur
Friday across southern counties, and across the entire area by
Sunday into Monday of nex week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 303 AM EDT Wednesday...A blustery, cold and rather
unpleasant day by late April standards remains on track for
today as large upper cyclonic gyre and associated surface
reflection across the Canadian Maritimes pulls slowly away. A
tight p-grad on the back side of this system will keep robust
west/northwest flow intact through the daylight hours when area-
wide gusts should average from 20 to 30 mph in most spots. 925
hPa temperatures average from -1 to -3C supporting unseasonably
chilly highs only in the 30s to around 40. Lingering low level
moisture embedded in the aforementioned cyclonic flow aloft will
interact with terrain keeping scattered flurry/snow shower
activity going through the day in the northern mountains. Here,
light accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch will be
possible at elevation. Elsewhere, variable clouds are expected
with some scattered sunshine with perhaps a stray flurry here
and there.
Blustery flow gradually relaxes by tonight as a narrow shortwave
ridge axis builds eastward from the Great Lakes. Any evening
northern mountain flurries end with skies trending mostly clear in
all areas overnight. Low temperatures remain unseasonably cold, near
record levels in fact if you believe the guidance. I did end up
keeping values some 3-6 degrees above MOS numbers given the time of
year, lack of snow cover and at least some lingering gradient winds
of 4 to 8 mph. However, my forecast values still threaten or eclipse
climo records at most sites. See climate section below for more
info.
By Thursday the aforementioned shortwave ridge crests atop the area
with sunny to mostly sunny skies for the majority of the day under
light to modest westerly flow. Some high clouds may begin to
encroach into southern/southwestern counties toward the end of the
day but dry weather is expected as highs moderate into the mid 40s
to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Wednesday...A cool evening for Thursday with clouds
increasing from the south. A compact 500hPa shortwave will lift from
the Ohio River Valley and into southern New England with an
attendant surface low off the Delmarva heading towards Long Island,
NY. A mid-level deformation axis should set up north and east of the
upper shortwave associated with the warm conveyor belt. Isentropic
ascent should produce a wide area of precipitation where this
deformation axis stretches out. There continues to be discrepancies
as to the location of this axis and how far north precipitation
extends beyond this axis. The overall trend looks to be somewhat
further north, so have nudged PoPs up along Rutland and Windsor
Counties while maintaining a gradient that keeps precipitation out
of the forecast near the International Border.
Based on the antecedent dry air in place, it looks like most areas
will wet-bulb near to below freezing as precipitation gets underway.
It may take some time before it reaches the surface, but once it
does, precipitation should fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. With
this and the low-level dry air advecting in from north winds,
overall precipitation, and thus, snow amounts, will be light.
Temperatures will then begin to warm during the day on Friday,
leading to a transition to rain. The 500hPa shortwave remains
progressive, so precipitation will be waning by evening. Forecast
highs are in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with the warmer
temperatures near the International Border, where less precipitation
and cloud cover is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Wednesday...Shortwave ridging aloft will give us a
reprieve with an appreciated warm up for the weekend. Highs on
Saturday should be in the 50s across the region with partly cloudy
skies. On Sunday, surface high pressure to our north and another
shortwave lifting towards New England from the Ohio River Valley
will begin to establish a baroclinic zone, and we will be on the
northern half. Easterly flow along this developing warm front will
bring cool, maritime air into the region. Late Sunday morning and
into the afternoon, precipitation will begin to lift into our
region. Good diffluence aloft and a better moisture profile should
allow much of our region to see rain for this system. Precipitation
will begin to shift east as the shortwave trundles eastwards
overnight into Monday morning.
We sit under a recycled continental polar airmass for a few days,
but model trends have been drier for the start of next week. So at
least it should not be as cloudy and dreary as it was looking
yesterday. It still may take some time for temperatures to moderate
and we still likely remain near to below normal, as we remain under
the influence of a longwave trough throughout the extended. The next
system looks poised to impact the region towards the mid to late
portion of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly SCT/BKN VFR through the TAF
forecast cycle. Intermittent/scattered shsn with brief MVFR
conds possible through 12Z. Exception at KSLK where MVFR/occnl
IFR shsn to persist on and off through 12Z before also trending
VFR in the 14-16Z time frame. Most problematic will be continued
gusty west to northwest winds from 10-18 kt and gusts from 20-30
kts through 00Z Thursday before gradual abatement is expected.
This will create occnl mechanical turbulence on approaches
and/or departures.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Chance RA, Likely SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record minimum temperatures(F) for selected sites and year of
occurrence for Thursday, April 23.
Burlington, VT.........23/1930
Montpelier, VT.........21/1988
Massena, NY............25/2018
Plattsburgh, NY........24/1994
Saranac Lake, NY.......10/1933
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...JMG
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