SKIVT-L Archives

November 2022, Week 1

SKIVT-L@LIST.UVM.EDU

Options: Use Monospaced Font
Show Text Part by Default
Show All Mail Headers

Message: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]
Topic: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]
Author: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]

Print Reply
Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 6 Nov 2022 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (293 lines)
Expires:202211061800;;652313
FPUS51 KBTV 061100
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
556 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022


VTZ018-061800-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
556 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.TODAY...Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs around 60. West winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs
in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid
30s. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.VETERANS DAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs around 50. Chance of rain 60 percent. 

$$


Expires:202211061200;;653756
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    69  58  67 S15G25    30.01S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    64  56  75 SE12      30.12R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    70  55  59 S15G29    30.03F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  56  72 MISG      30.08R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     63  56  78 E7        30.11S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    68  59  74 S12G24    30.06F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    69  57  65 S9        30.11R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    65  59  81 SE7       30.13S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      70  58  66 S14G30    29.97F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    63  60  91 S12G18    30.05F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    69  53  56 S14G28    30.14R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     64 N/A N/A SW10        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A SW32G49     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     68  57  68 SE24G33     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  57  82 S28         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  59  73 S15G22      N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;654418
FXUS61 KBTV 061142
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another unseasonably warm day with breezy weather is expected
ahead of a cold front that will bring scattered to numerous 
showers across the region. Showers come to an end early Monday 
morning along the cold front passage, with drier weather 
expected for the rest of the week. After a warm Sunday and 
Monday, near normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and 
Wednesday, followed by another warm up for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 633 AM EST Sunday...The sun is rising over a new week and
new day over the North Country. Breezy conditions continue,
though it has subsided somewhat. Looking at forecast soundings,
as we warm at the surface there is also a little bit of mid- 
level cooling that will start to take place, and this should 
allow some gusts to briefly redevelop ahead of an advancing cold
front. It will not be as fast as the winds overnight, but some
25 to 35 mph gusts could intermittently take place out ahead of
it. That front is approaching the eastern edge of Lake Ontario 
and the ST. Lawrence River, and ahead of it is some low- topped 
convection with briefly heavy rainfall. Overall, the situation 
has not changed, but did tweak the PoP forecast a bit based on 
the latest data. Previous discussion below.

Breezy conditions with record warmth continues to be the theme.
Temperatures overnight have struggled to fall against the stiff
south winds with lower 60s to even 70. Widespread gusts 25 to 
35 mph have been observed across Vermont, with a few gusts of 40
to 45 mph in the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and 
northern Champlain Valley. The strong winds aloft that have been
responsible will lift north, but flow remains quick, likely due
to pressure gradients between the ~1030 mb offshore high and 
~989mb near James Bay.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase the next several
hours. At present, a band of convection is present across western
New York state, with some scattered convection developing across
central New York and moving towards the Adirondacks. Towards 8am or
so, an upper jet streak over our area will start to lift north, and
better dynamics move north of the international border. Anticipate
the band over northern New York to become increasingly fragmented,
and perhaps temporarily dissipate. By mid-afternoon, another surge
of moisture will lift north bringing PWATs to 1.00" to 1.33", upper
flow will again accelerate even if the exact configuration is not
too favorable, and a weak low-level trough will lift into the area.
Low-level winds pick up and are modestly well-aligned with the
deformation axis of the trough, all while elevated instability is
driven up towards 150-250 J/kg. Convection should redevelop over the
Adirondacks, and then shift east. Range of probabilistic and
deterministic guidance have trended upwards in terms of this late
afternoon and overnight activity. Overall, precipitation amounts are
a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch higher, except across
southern vermont. Values range between 0.05" to 0.50" with a few
locally higher totals near mountain summits.

This will be against the backdrop of another warm day, with high
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Record warm max and
minimum temperatures are again possible, with the numbers 
outlined in the climate section below. The front will be slow to
shift south and east, with cold advection lagging well behind 
the precipitation. Lows tonight will generally be in the 50s 
with upper 50s to mid 60s for highs on Monday. Very dry air will
succeed the front, with skies quickly clearing during the 
afternoon. A few clouds could redevelop near the international 
border as the upper trough axis swings east late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...Cold front clearing the region to the
southeast Monday will lead to moderately strong low-level CAA Monday
night and a 1040mb sfc anticyclone eventually building sewd into the
North Country late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Steep low-level lapse
rates will contribute to moderately strong NWLY winds, generally
10-20 mph Monday night into the first half of Tuesday, and with some
gusts 25- 35 mph Tuesday morning. Some stratocu will likely linger
Monday night, but not expecting any precipitation through the
period, and skies should trend mostly clear toward daybreak on
Tuesday. Temperatures will fall back into the 30s by daybreak
Tuesday, and locally in the upper 20s across the northern
Adirondacks. High temperatures on Tuesday will be much cooler than
recent days, but close to climo averages with highs Tuesday
afternoon in the 43-48F range in most locations. Diminishing wind
expected as center of surface high pressure builds in Tuesday night.
Should see good radiational cooling conditions with overnight lows
mainly in the 20s, but locally in the upper teens across the nrn
Adirondacks and possibly far nern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...Surface high pressure drifting south and
east of New England will remain in control of our weather Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Should see some moderation of sfc temperatures,
with sunny skies and valley highs on Wednesday into the low-mid 50s.
Should see a reinforcing cold front settle swd from Quebec Thursday
or Thursday evening per 00Z GFS solution. The 00Z ECMWF and Canadian
keep this boundary north of the intl border. Indicated just slight
chance of rain showers Thursday night, as even the GFS solution
suggests forcing will be relatively shallow within the frontal zone.
Highs on Thursday generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, followed
by increasing clouds and lows in the low-mid 40s for Thursday night.

Heading toward next weekend, NWP consensus indicates a more
significant pattern amplification, with strong low-mid level south
to southwest flow redeveloping across the Northeast. Frontal system
and deepening low pressure across the Great Lakes region will result
in increasing S-SW flow across NY and New England. Should bring
mild/warm conditions on Friday with highs into the lower 60s. Should
see increasing rain chances Friday night into Saturday as frontal
system approaches from the west. There is some prospect for tropical
moisture to become entrained in the deep-layer southerly flow in
advance of the cold front just before it reaches northern NY and VT.
This may bring some more widespread, heavier precipitation to the
region Friday night into Saturday. There's also a possibility that
the richer tropical moisture will remain to our south and east, per
some GEFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions. Will need to wait on those
timing details, but did increase PoPs to near 60% for late Friday
night into Saturday morning given consistent frontal timing in most
of the deterministic guidance. Will monitor moderate/heavy rain
potential in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Gusty winds and areas of low level wind 
shear continue to be the main aviation forecast concern tonight.
A 40 to 50 knot southerly/southwesterly low-level jet is
beginning to lift northeast, and several sites have a mention of
LLWS through 14 or 15z. At the surface, sustained south winds 
will continue at 8-16 knots with gusts up to 15 to 25 knots. A
slow moving front is approaching KMSS now and will briefly 
stall near the area. Rain chances best at KMSS through 14z 
before rain dissipates. After about 16z rain will begin to 
redevelop along the front, and it will then begin shifting east.
Visibilities within showers should remain primarily 6SM or 
higher, but ceilings will lower towards 2500-3500 ft agl as the 
front shifts eastwards. Pockets of LLWS noted again as winds 
increase again after 22z, but will be more intermittent, through
about 06-07z. Surface winds will become 5 to 10 knots and 
slowly turning southwesterly, and skies will begin to clear 
from the west after 07z.


Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...A lake wind advisory remains in 
effect Sunday. South winds have been between 20 to 30 knots
overnight, and will begin to gradually subside, but could remain
elevated until later this evening. Waves are forecast to be 2 to
5 feet, depending on location.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely today.

Below are the standing records with the forecast values as of 3 AM: 

Max Temp Records
Date   KBTV     KMPV      KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-06  75|1948  72|1978   78|1948  73|2015  74|1945
FCST   73       72        69       72       67

High Min Temp Records 
Date   KBTV     KMPV       KMSS    KPBG     KSLK     
11-06  58|2015  57|1948   54|2020  51|1948  48|2015
FCST   66       62        58       63       61

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Duell/Haynes
MARINE...NWS BTV
CLIMATE...NWS BTV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html

ATOM RSS1 RSS2