Expires:201612252100;;435755
FPUS51 KBTV 251129
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016
VTZ006-252100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
626 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016
.TODAY...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 18 THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 1 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
$$
Expires:201612251200;;435780
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FLURRIES 33 23 66 N21G26 30.35R WCI 21
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 31 25 78 NW18G29 30.27R WCI 19
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 31 22 69 VRB5G22 30.30R WCI 26
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 36 29 75 MISG 30.23R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 30 21 69 W22G40 30.24R WCI 17
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 34 34 100 N15G23 30.32R WCI 24
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 38 25 59 NW7 30.25R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 28 18 66 NW5 30.40R WCI 22
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 35 30 82 W7 30.29R WCI 29
SUTTON* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 30 N/A N/A NW15 N/A WCI 19
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 28 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 16 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 32 21 64 NW15 N/A WCI 22
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 34 27 75 N31 N/A WCI 20
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 36 32 87 N25 N/A WCI 23
$$
Expires:No;;435946
FXUS61 KBTV 251132
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the region this morning will bring
increasing sunshine this afternoon along with falling
temperatures as the day progresses. Clear and cold conditions
are expected tonight, followed by a return of warmer conditions
as strong low pressure moving northwest of the region brings a
wintry mix Monday afternoon and night, along with very strong
winds in the Champlain Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 632 AM EST Sunday...Surface cold front currently settling
southeastward across the North Country this morning will usher
in some drier and colder air for Christmas Day along with a few
scattered rain and snow showers, though mainly before daybreak.
Through the day we'll see improving conditions with some
sunshine breaking out this afternoon, but temperatures will
slowly fall through the day behind the front with northwest
winds gusting in the 20-30 mph range through mid-day. Max temps
will be realized early this morning in the mid to upper 20s, and
slowly fall into the teens by this evening.
For tonight, high pressure continues to settle over the region
with clearing skies and abating winds leading to good
radiational cooling. Since we didn't lose much if any snowpack
despite the past few warm days, we should be able to realize min
temps in the single digits to teens below zero in the Northeast
Kingdom and Adirondacks, to single digits above zero elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Sunday...On Monday and Monday night, a well
advertised storm system will track from the upper Great Lakes to
near James Bay driving a warm front into the area along with
developing light precipitation. Precipitation will be most
focused across northern areas, particularly in the SLV during
the day, then spread across the remainder of the area overnight.
Low to mid level flow will trend south to southwest over time
and become quite gusty, especially from the Champlain Valley
west as temperatures slowly climb through the day. Warming will
be only gradual however, especially in eastern VT and protected
hollows of the eastern Dacks where scouring of colder near-sfc
layers will be slow. In these areas have still mentioned a light
mix of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain in the afternoon/early
evening hours with some minor ice accretions possible. Elsewhere
any brief mixed precipitation to transition to light rain or
showers fairly quickly by later in the afternoon. In regard to
the wind, models still in good agreement showing strong
southerly channeling developing in the Champlain Valley with an
impressive low level jet of 55 to 65 knots near 925 mb occurring
from late afternoon into early evening. Sounding profiles on
board showing enhanced mixing potential during this period and
given this consistency I've maintained surface gusts into the 30
to 40 mph range across the Dacks into portions of the SLV, and
from 40 to 50 mph in the Champlain Valley where a wind advisory
may be needed if current model trends continue. 24-hour high
temperatures to actually occur in the evening and overnight
hours as we enter the system's narrow warm sector. By this time
all areas will have climbed above the freezing mark (upper 30s
to lower 40s) with any mixed precipitation having transitioned
to light rain and/or rain showers as primary cold front sweeps
into the area late.
By Tuesday, light rains to transition to scattered light rain or
snow showers and become more confined to terrain as cold front
clears well east and gusty low level flow trends westerly.
Temperatures to remain generally steady in the upper 30s to lower
40s, at least in lower elevations as insolation and downsloping
effects offset modest cold thermal advective processes.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Sunday...More or less a persistence forecast
will be offered in the mid to late week time frame as an active
northern stream drives several other systems through the region
with scattered periods of light snow/rain showers. Most
significant will be a robust upper trough and potential coastal
low development in the Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
Medium range models slowly converging on a solution that
suggests a deepening coastal low into the Gulf of Maine driving
into the Maritimes by Thursday night. Typical with these late
developers, higher impacts will likely occur slightly east and
north of our area across eastern New England into Maine.
Nonetheless, decent moisture transport along with upper
diffluence on the front end of the trough warrants continuation
of higher pops (50-70 pct) during this period with some light
accumulating snows likely, especially across the
eastern/northern mountains. While arctic air will remain well
north of the region, the idea of a gradual cooldown toward more
typical late December norms still looks reasonable from
Wednesday onward into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...A cold front shifting through the region
this morning will continue to provide a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs
with gusty northwest winds persisting through around 18z.
After 18z, we'll see gradual clearing and improvement to VFR/SKC
conditions with winds diminishing below 10 knots for the
remainder of the period.
Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday...
12Z Monday through 18z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
18z Monday through 12z Tuesday...VFR trending to MVFR in a
wintry mix changing to rain after 00z Tuesday. Strong SSW
winds, LLWS and turbulence likely, especially at KBTV/KPBG.
12z Tuesday through 00z Thursday...Mix of MVFR/VFR in scattered
snow showers. Gusty WNW winds likely through 00z Wednesday.
00Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...mainly VFR under brief high
pressure.
12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and
snow.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 422 AM EST Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for
today with north- northwest winds of 15 to 30 knots creating
hazardous conditions for small vessels. Wave heights this
morning will be in the 3 to 5 foot range, highest in the
central/southern portion of the broad lake from Colchester Reef
to south of Four Brothers. Winds will diminish this evening as
high pressure builds in for tonight with waves subsiding, but
winds will increase dramatically to 35 to 45 knots late Monday
afternoon and evening creating very hazardous conditions likely
across all of the Lake Champlain basin Monday night.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Lahiff
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