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Expires:201211212130;;554237
FPUS51 KBTV 211716
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012
VTZ006-212130-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
1216 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012
.THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
$$
Expires:201211212000;;557683
ASUS41 KBTV 211930
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-212000-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON SUNNY 51 23 33 S6 30.19F
MONTPELIER SUNNY 50 20 30 S6 30.22S
MORRISVILLE SUNNY 52 23 32 SE3 30.19F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 49 24 37 MISG 30.18S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 49 15 25 SE3 30.20S
SPRINGFIELD SUNNY 49 21 33 CALM 30.21F
HIGHGATE* FAIR 48 28 45 SW5 30.20S
NEWPORT* FAIR 53 15 22 SW3 30.18S
BENNINGTON SUNNY 52 22 30 NW3 30.17F
SUTTON* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 52 N/A N/A E1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A
DANBY 4 CNRS* N/A 43 N/A N/A MISG N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 50 32 50 SW7 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 48 32 53 S14 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 36 61 SW7 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;557929
FXUS61 KBTV 211957
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
COLDER REGIME WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AS AN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPCOMING FRONT...STALLS OVER THE EASTERN QUEBEC...CANADIAN MARITIME
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 257 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NICE AFTNOON OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM U40S TO L50S. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TEMPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST REGION THRU THE OVERNGT
HRS. DO EXPECT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPS AS SUNSET OCCUR.
EXPECTING OVERNGT LOWS TO DROP DOWN TO THE TEENS IN ALL AREAS BUT
THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAW VALLEYS WHERE LOW TO MID 20S WILL ENSUE.
THESE TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED SOME TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE CVLY WESTWARD. GOING FOR SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP IN DACKS/E VT BY MIDNGT...BUT MORE PERSISTENT IN E VT
WHERE WINDS MAINLY CALM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 257 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOR THANKSGIVING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...THE REGION WILL SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY/S WX.
SFC RIDGE REMAINS INTACT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...SLIDING SLOWLY EAST
AS EVENING HRS PROGRESS. EXPECTING FULL SUNSHINE AGAIN FOR THE
AREA...AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCR THRU THE DAY...GOING
FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50-55F RANGE WITH HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE
CVLY/ST LAW VALLEY REGIONS.
MDLS BRING FRNT SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LKS REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRNT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40MPH RANGE IN SPOTS. CLR SKIES MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...COMBINED WITH INCR SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WILL AFFORD MUCH OF
THE CWA OVERNGT LOWS AT OR JUST ABV NORMAL. AREAS IN E VT WILL DROP
BLW NORMAL THOUGH DUE TO TROUBLE SOUTH WINDS HAVE GETTING PAST GREEN
MTNS.
MDLS BRING FRNT THRU THE REGION SLOWLY FRI/FRI NGT AS SFC RIDGE
REMAINS AS A BLOCKING FACTOR INITIALLY. MDL CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH/ALL
PRECIP WEST OF THE CVLY THRU MOST OF THE MORNING HRS...BUT
OVERSPREADING CWA BY 00Z SAT. WARM TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE 45-50F FOR
HIGHS...THUS BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. GOING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR WORKS IN BEHIND FRNT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW
OR SW/RW MIX. CWA COULD SEE D-2" DURING THIS TIME. MOST ACCUM OVER
DACKS/NC NE VT DUE TO WINDS BECM WNW AFT FROPA ALLOWING FOR MORE
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO OCCUR. VALLEY LOCALES A DUSTING AT BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EXPECTED WITH TWO MAIN WEATHER EPISODES. THE FIRST IS THE PASSAGE
OF FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ON SATURDAY. THIS TROF
ALONG WITH NW FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND VALLEY
FLURRIES SATUDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GFS BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES
POINT TO AIR PARCELS ORGINATING NORTH OF HUDSON'S BAY THAT WILL
PASS OVER THE HUDSON'S AND JAMES BAY UNFROZEN WATERS REACHING BTV
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME "BAY EFFECT" CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND ALL THE WAY UPSLOPING INTO NRN NY AND VT.
EXPECT LITTLE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING DAY SATURDAY IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DROP TO
519 DM AND 850 MB TEMP AS LOW AS -12C SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH -12 IN
THE CLOUDS, EXPECT THAT SNOWFLAKES WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT FLUFFY
DENDRITES SO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BRIEF PERIOD OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
RIDGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUN THROUGH THE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL COULD BE SOME FLURRIES
AROUND WITH COLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW FREEZING.
COLDER AIR THEN SLOWLY RETREATS NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN ZONAL
WEST TO EAST JET STREAM SEPARATES COLD TO NORTH AND RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR TO SOUTH. THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY HAVE A SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TUES/WED NEXT WEEK WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW TO A WINTERY MIXED BAG OF
HEAVIER PRECIP SO STAY TUNED.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CONFIDENCE LOWER
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING TIMING
AND PHASING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE MVFR VSBY IN BR/HZ OVER NIGHT BECAUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS S-SW 20G30 KTS.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO VALLEY FLURRIES AND LCL IFR IN MTN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY...VFR
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
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