Expires:202210082000;;065385
FPUS51 KBTV 080724
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
VTZ018-082000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
320 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Highs in the
upper 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west this
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph,
becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Patchy frost. Lows in the mid 30s.
West winds around 10 mph.
.COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Patchy frost. Highs in the lower
50s. Light and variable winds.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the mid 50s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the
lower 60s. Lows in the upper 40s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 60.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance
of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
$$
Expires:202210081100;;073714
ASUS41 KBTV 081030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-081100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 41 36 82 NW9 30.13R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 40 33 76 NW9 30.11R
MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 39 35 86 VRB3 30.11R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 41 31 67 MISG 30.06S
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 38 33 81 W7 30.08S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 38 33 82 N8 30.12R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 42 36 79 NW7 30.11R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 46 34 62 NW5 30.09R
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 38 37 94 CALM 30.13S
NEWPORT* FAIR 37 33 87 W9G16 30.09S WCI 30
BENNINGTON CLEAR 40 34 79 CALM 30.11R
ISLAND POND* N/A 37 N/A N/A NW7 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 36 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 27 N/A N/A W7 N/A WCI 19
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 43 32 65 NW16 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 41 34 75 NW15 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;069694
FXUS61 KBTV 080839
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and mainly dry day is expected today, followed by more
showers on Sunday. There will be areas of frost in the colder
hollows of eastern Vermont overnight.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure will begin to
ridge into the region today from the southwest, by the
afternoon we should see some sunshine especially across Vermont.
Crisp, cool and clear fall weather day is on tap, and high
temperatures should reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. Pretty
ideal radiational cooling conditions will exist overnight,
especially across Vermont where we will have mostly clear skies
in place. Across Vermont we'll see temperatures dip into the mid
206 in the Northeast Kingdom to around 40 near Lake Champlain.
A Frost Advisory has been issued for parts of eastern Vermont
where frost formation is expected in the colder hollows.
Temperatures in Northern New York will be a bit warmer overnight
where we will have some cloud cover on southwesterly flow off
of Lake Ontario. This will prevent temperatures from dropping as
sharply, and lows will me in the mid 30s to around 40 in the St
Lawrence valley. We will also see a lake response downwind of
Lake Ontario early Sunday morning, with a mix of rain/snow
showers for portions of Saint Lawrence County and the
Adirondacks. Little to no accumulation is expected. Will have
some scattered showers on Sunday, both downwind of Lake Ontario
on southwesterly flow, and also from an upper level shortwave
passing overhead. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light,
with most areas seeing less than a quarter of an inch. Cold air
advection and steepening lapse rates will make for a breezy day.
Much of the day will be fairly cloudy as well, even for those
areas that don't see much in the way of shower activity. Highs
Sunday will only range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday... Precipitation and clouds will wane
overnight Sunday night and lows will be in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Additional shortwave energy will pass south of our region
on Monday, so some clouds are expected across our area but
precipitation is more unlikely. Our region will continue to be
under southwesterly flow on Monday and will have some light
showers off of Lake Ontario. High temperatures will reach the
50s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Saturday...The extended forecast period begins
with surface high pressure and dry weather. The midweek weather
looks pleasant with moderating temperatures. Early Tuesday will
be fairly cold, with a frosty morning likely. By Wednesday,
highs should be in the 60s. After Wednesday, a ridge aloft will
start to shift east and surface high pressure will move offshore
as an deepening trough develops over the Upper Midwest. This
will result in increasing southerly flow, and a warm front will
lift through the region on Wednesday night. Greater cloud cover
and south winds should result in a milder night, with overnight
lows mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warm, moist advection
should allow for some broad upward motion, but the low- levels
will be on the dry side. The latest deterministic GFS is trying
to paint the picture of some light precipitation with that warm
front, and there's at least enough of a signal amongst ensemble
QPF probabilities that there is a 20 to 40 percent chance of
rain in the forecast. It's also possible that dry air prevents
precipitation from reaching the surface as noted in the
deterministic EC and CMC. So, overall, that seems a good
starting point.
Thursday afternoon, winds will continue to increase ahead of a
strong occluding cold front. Consistency amongst deterministic
guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities support the idea
of a high amplitude trough near the Great Lakes on Thursday.
Winds at 850hPa will begin to accelerate towards 35 to 50 knots,
and this should at least produce 10 to 20 mph sustained winds
with gusts 20 to 30 mph Thursday afternoon. As we get closer, we
can get a better sense of the mixing potential, as the
strongest 850hPa winds appear to shift into the region overnight
and closer to when precipitation arrives, but it looks like
breezy weather for those interested in mapping out recreational
activities.
Thursday night and into Friday, the occluding cold front will
shift east. Strong surface convergence and meridional flow
parallel along the boundary will make this a slow moving
boundary with the potential for pockets of moderate to heavy
rain. With such a strong jet, there will likely be some degree
of terrain shadowing, but ensemble probabilities of rainfall
amounts greater than 0.50" have increased towards 40 to 50
percent over the North Country, and PWAT anomalies look to rise
towards about 175 percent of normal at this time. The front
should give us a solid soaking as it moves east on Friday.
Behind the front, a sharp dry slot will advect into the region
as deep, stacked low pressure becomes occluded. While cooler
behind the front, it may be awhile before the sharpest of that
cold air arrives while the stacked low stalls across the Great
Lakes region, but slightly below normal temperatures in the 50s
is forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...It's a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings as
low-level moisture continues to work around our mountainous
terrain. Brief intervals of 800-1000 ft agl ceiling possible at
KSLK, but should be transient. Spotty showers have been
developing off Lake Champlain and occasionally producing
sprinkles near KBTV, and somewhat more so at KRUT. This activity
should diminish as moisture thins after 09Z, and all terminals
should towards VFR between about 12Z and 14Z and a few becoming
SKC. Northwest winds are currently around 4 to 8 knots, and
could briefly become variable before trending southwesterly
after 14Z, and increasing back towards 6 to 10 knots with a few
gusts to 17 knots. Wind speeds will again subside to about 5
knots after 00Z Monday with 5000-7000 ft agl ceilings moving in
from the west.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
VTZ006-008-010-019>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
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