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November 2015, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 8 Nov 2015 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (207 lines)
Expires:201511082100;;044861
FPUS51 KBTV 081008
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
504 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015


VTZ006-082100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
504 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND VETERANS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201511081200;;047365
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    43  27  53 W8        30.22R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    37  26  64 NW8       30.20R WCI  31          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    39  27  62 NW9G18    30.20R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  28  81 MISG      30.15R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      33  26  73 W12G24    30.16R WCI  25          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    38  33  82 CALM      30.22R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     38  31  76 NW3       30.19R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      34  26  72 CALM      30.23R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      32  25  76 NW7       30.18R WCI  26          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     37  33  85 SW3       30.22R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A W33         N/A  WCI   7          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  32  70 W10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  32  61 W6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;047665
FXUS61 KBTV 081137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY WILL RESULT FROM SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST...BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WILL SPREAD EASTWARD, PROVIDING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT DRIER AIR UPSTREAM TO HELP ERODE SOME
OF THESE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY, BUT NW FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AROUND THE TERRAIN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER IN COOLER AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOP
OUT IN THE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, EASTWARD OVER PENNSYLVANIA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS
AND TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EST SUNDAY...AFTER SUNSET, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 20S TO MID 30S.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEAR SKIES AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
4C TO 7C WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-12KTS WILL
RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM
THE 40S TO MID 50S.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UP TO OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE AS A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW NEAR THE
DELMARVA REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOOKS TO TRACK NEAR THE BENCH MARK, THEREFORE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST SUNDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 24
HOURS AGO IS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW BRING MOISTURE FROM
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE IT INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE REGION WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF DRY
WEATHER...BEFORE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS MODEL MAINLY DRIER ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE STAYED WITH SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR
FRIDAY AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER CANADA NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS EVERY DAY EXCEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 11Z SUNDAY BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM 14Z-21Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FROM 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...VFR.
12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF

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