Expires:200603102315;;090291
FPUS51 KBTV 100911
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-102315-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH
411 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BECOMING WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 
15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
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FXUS61 KBTV 100954
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

...WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN
NEW YORK AND CLEARING VT THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. YET
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE WIND. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KTS IN
THE MIXED LAYER TO 60 KTS AT THE TOP AROUND 6K FT DURING FROPA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AND PRESSURE RISES OF 7 MB IN 3HR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS PEAKING AT BTV BETWEEN 21-00Z.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 0.80" ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM, BUT
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO DEPICT IN THE FORECAST. TT IN THE 50S AND
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE NOTED.

STRONG TOTAL COLUMN DRYING THIS EVENING AS PW DROPS TO 0.20". EXPECT
STRATOCU TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WILL BRING
SHOWERS.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS EXCEPT A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AS IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FA PRIMARILY IN WRM SECTOR WITH THE FNT AS DEPICTED BY RDR ACTVTY
ALG CNDN BDR AT 06Z. PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ACRS FA BUT LOW STRATUS STL
EXISTS AT KMPV WITH SNOWCOVER AND COLD POOL IN VLYS SURROUNDING.

ATTM...STG SSW JET 40-50KTS ABV THE DECK WL LKLY CAUSE LLWS THRU
16-18Z. ANTHR ROUND OF -SHRA MVG INTO WRN FA BY 12Z AND ACRS REST OF
FA SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS (BKN-OVC020-030)
AT TIMES AND THEN AFT FROPA 18-21Z XPCT SW SFC WNDS 18-25KTS
G35KTS...ESP KMSS/KSLK. -SHRA PRIMARILY ENDING XCPT W SLOPES OF HIR
TRRN BY 22Z. GRDL CLRG AND DIMINISHING WNDS TO START BY END OF FCST
PD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM
     FRIDAY.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO
     8 PM FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SLW











FXUS61 KBTV 100236
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
936 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A PRECIPITATION LULL BETWEEN INITIAL
BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH BROUGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEXT BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN NY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOST SECTIONS.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS IS WARRANTED
ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA /I.E...NRN NY/ AFTER 06Z.

WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SFC
TEMPERATURES BELOW 2000FT HAVE CLIMBED AOA 32F ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. ANY LINGERING POOR ROAD CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW
AND SLEET OF EARLIER TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO NERN VT.
OVERALL...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LWR OH VALLEY AT 02Z
LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 500MB VORT
CENTER OVER NERN VT BY 18Z. RAPID MOTION OF UPR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SWLY 850MB WINDS OF 55-65KT SUGGESTS STRONG
WIND THREAT. BEST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS ACROSS WRN FORECAST
AREA...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND
ST. LWR VLY FROM 10/15Z THROUGH 11/01Z. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT LOW
ELEVATIONS GIVEN MARGINAL NR SFC LAPSE RATES FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY MAY
OCCUR FOLLOWING COLD FROPA DURING THE MID AFTN HOURS...WHEN LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WITH AID FROM ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...FEEL GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE PROBABLE FOR 1-3
HOURS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTN.

ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION WAS FOR ADDITION OF ISOLD TSTM AROUND
MID-DAY TOMORROW WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER PVA AND MARGINAL CAPE. NGM
BEST LI/S RANGE FROM -1 TO -2C WITH TROUGH PASSAGE/DEEP-LAYER
FORCING...WHICH IS NORMAL INDICATIVE OF SOME THREAT. VORT MAX HAS
HIGHLY CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF CG/S THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO ASSESS TRENDS AND VIEW
FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE TO SEE IF INCLUSION OF THUNDER IN
ZONES/GRIDS IS WARRANTED.

NPW AND ZONES ALREADY SENT.

NOTE: WFO BTV HAS UPGRADED TO AWIPS OB6 AS OF TODAY. SPECIAL
THANKS TO WFO ALBANY FOR PROVIDING BACKUP SERVICES DURING THE
INSTALLATION TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...SHORT TERM CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE MIXED PRECIP OVER EASTERN QUARTER OF FORECAST
AREA. MOSTLY SNOW NOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED AND THEN RAIN
OVERNIGHT. MANY SENSORS STILL SHOW TEMPERATURES IN LOW 30S. WITH
GRADUAL RISE EXPECTED BELIEVE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE SPS TO COVER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
CHANGING TO ZR/IP THIS EVENING. WESTERN AREAS HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING SO ZR THREAT OVER THERE.

NEXT QUESTION IS WIND FOR TOMORROW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WIND
EVENT ACROSS MOST OF AREA. 12Z/GFS SHOWS 50KT 925MB WIND MAX MOVE
ACROSS AREA DURING AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC TO
750MB LEVEL SO MIXING WINDS DOWN SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FORECAST BY MODELS WHICH COULD CUT
DOWN MAX GUSTS. WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY/WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL UPDATE HWO TO MENTION THREAT.

SATURDAY SHOWS COLD STRATO CU WITH A FEW SW- EARLY THEN CLEARING
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXCEPT NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FOR
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. DRYING LATE IN
DAY MAY MAKE FOR A PLEASANT SPRING LIKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP LOW ARRIVES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 982MB AS IT TRACKS UP THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. 12Z/GFS SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY AS RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH WARM TEMPS FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...MELTING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND ADDITIONAL RAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME TYPICAL SPRING FLOODING ALONG STREAMS TUESDAY.

COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND DEEP LOW LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW.

AVIATION...MVFR WITH AREAS IFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
VISIBILITY 1-3 MILES LCL BLO 1 MILE IN LIGHT RAIN...SNOW AND FOG
FAR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TIL MIDNIGHT
FAR EASTERN AREAS. WESTERN AREAS MVFR WITH AREAS IFR OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. TAF LOCATION CIGS 020-030 LOWERING TO 007-015
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS VFR FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DROPPING
CIG/VIS TO MVFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS
FRIDAY WITH STRONG S WINDS AT SURFACE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS AT
2500FT FROM WSW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 FROM 10 AM FRIDAY
     TO 8 PM FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 092030
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 PM EST THU MAR 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...SHORT TERM CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE MIXED PRECIP OVER EASTERN QUARTER OF FORECAST
AREA. MOSTLY SNOW NOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED AND THEN RAIN
OVERNIGHT. MANY SENSORS STILL SHOW TEMPERATURES IN LOW 30S. WITH
GRADUAL RISE EXPECTED BELIEVE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE SPS TO COVER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
CHANGING TO ZR/IP THIS EVENING. WESTERN AREAS HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING SO ZR THREAT OVER THERE.

NEXT QUESTION IS WIND FOR TOMORROW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WIND
EVENT ACROSS MOST OF AREA. 12Z/GFS SHOWS 50KT 925MB WIND MAX MOVE
ACROSS AREA DURING AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC TO
750MB LEVEL SO MIXING WINDS DOWN SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FORECAST BY MODELS WHICH COULD CUT
DOWN MAX GUSTS. WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY/WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL UPDATE HWO TO MENTION THREAT.

SATURDAY SHOWS COLD STRATO CU WITH A FEW SW- EARLY THEN CLEARING
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXCEPT NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FOR
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. DRYING LATE IN
DAY MAY MAKE FOR A PLEASANT SPRING LIKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP LOW ARRIVES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 982MB AS IT TRACKS UP THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. 12Z/GFS SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY AS RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH WARM TEMPS FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...MELTING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND ADDITIONAL RAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME TYPICAL SPRING FLOODING ALONG STREAMS TUESDAY.

COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND DEEP LOW LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR WITH AREAS IFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
VISIBILITY 1-3 MILES LCL BLO 1 MILE IN LIGHT RAIN...SNOW AND FOG
FAR EASTERN AREAS. ALSO SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TIL MIDNIGHT
FAR EASTERN AREAS. WESTERN AREAS MVFR WITH AREAS IFR OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. TAF LOCATION CIGS 020-030 LOWERING TO 007-015
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS VFR FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DROPPING
CIG/VIS TO MVFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS
FRIDAY WITH STRONG S WINDS AT SURFACE INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS AT
2500FT FROM WSW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

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References

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