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May 2020, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 27 May 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
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Expires:202005272000;;826253
FPUS51 KBTV 271049
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
646 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
646 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.TODAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the lower 90s. Light and
variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 60. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Not
as warm with highs in the lower 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202005271100;;825772
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      72  62  71 S7        30.13R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      63  62  97 CALM      30.22R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    59  58  96 S3        30.17R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     61  59  93 MISG      30.17R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      63  61  93 CALM      30.21R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      64  61  91 CALM      30.17R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      63  63 100 SE7       30.19R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      59  58  96 CALM      30.20R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      74  66  74 S6        30.11S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      63  63 100 CALM      30.17S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      61  59  93 CALM      30.20R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     59 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     68 N/A N/A SW12        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  63  78 S13G20      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  59  88 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  64  88 SW7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;826208
FXUS61 KBTV 271045
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another record breaking day of heat expected across the region
this afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid
90s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the northern Adirondacks and parts of the central and
northern Green Mountains today. A very warm and muggy night
tonight, will be followed by slightly cooler with more clouds on
Thursday. A cold front will produce additional showers and
thunderstorms on Friday with some localized heavy rainfall
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 639 AM EDT Wednesday...Temps already 2 to 4 degrees warmer
this morning compared to yesterday with mainly clear skies
prevailing. Any lingering fog/mist will quickly dissipate by
11z, with south winds at 4 to 8 mph expected and highs upper 80s
to mid 90s. Still anticipated a few showers/storms to develop
over the dacks and parts of the central/northern Greens btwn
18z-23z today. All covered will in fcst. 


All time record high temp for the month of May maybe broken at 
BTV this aftn. Our crnt fcst has 94 with the record all time 
high temp being 93F for BTV.

Mid/upper lvl ridge continues acrs the mid Atlantic/NE Conus
today with very warm 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles. Progged
925mb temps range from 23-25c today, which adding 10c placed
many areas in the upper 80s to mid 90s for high temps. Soundings
continue to show as high temps are approached this aftn, mixing
of slightly drier air near 850mb transfers to the sfc, resulting
in dwpts values in the l/m 60s. This will create heat index
values in the 89F to 96F range today, with the warmest values in
isolated urban areas acrs the CPV/SLV and parts of the upper CT
River Valley. The limited areal coverage of 95 or greater heat 
index values and limited duration of an hour or two at best,
prevents heat advisory thresholds for being reached. 

Next question is the areal coverage of convection this
aftn/evening. Once again mid/upper lvl forcing with building
ridge is very weak, along with limited moisture profiles.
However, NAM3km and BTV4km, along with the GEM/GFS continue to
show some isolated activity building during peak heating this
aftn acrs the dacks and parts of the central/northern mtns of
VT. Expect llvl convergence from lee side trof on eastern slopes
of the dacks and associated lake breezy boundary off both
Ontario and Champlain to create enough lift, along with trrn to
produce some shower/storm activity this aftn. Deep layer shear
is very weak with values <15 knots, so not expecting any
organized convective, even with sfc based cape values in the
1800 to 2400 j/kg range. The very light flow <20 knots from sfc
thru 500mb, indicates very slow storm motions and the potential
for localized heavy down pours. However, areal coverage of
measurable precip is <20% in most areas acrs the higher trrn 
today. A secondary threat would be the potential for an isolated
wind gust from localized microburst, associated with efficient 
preicp loading with moderate cape profiles. Tonight activity 
will quickly dissipate around sunset as llvl stabilize, with 
some patchy fog possible in areas that received measurable 
precip during the daytime. Another very warm and muggy night 
anticipated with lows upper 50s slk/nek to lower 70s CPV.

On Thursday, the combination of clouds and slightly cooler 925mb
to 850mb temps will result in high temps in the upper 70s to mid
80s most locations. Several weak embedded 5h vorts move acrs our
cwa during the daytime, which could produce scattered showers,
with highest pops acrs northern NY/SLV. Progged instability is
very limited with sfc based capes <500 j/kg, so thunder threat
is minimal on Thurs. Also, soundings indicate near moist 
adiabatic thermal profiles, indicating the atmospheric 
stability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 AM EDT Wednesday...Not much change in the overall forecast
philosophy for Friday. Warm and muggy with temps in the mid to upper
60s around sunrise warming into the mid to upper 80s. A prefrontal
trough will develop during the day with about 800-1500 J/kg of
surface based CAPE with continuing trends to a lighter shear profile
with 0-6km shear now forecast to be around 35 kts. Due to the
relatively weak low-level convergence and lack of a synoptic forcing
mechanism, we will need to rely on terrain boundaries and some lake
breeze convergence for initiation. But once convection does develop
towards late morning/early afternoon, a supportive jet structure,
falling heights, and the aforementioned shear should allow for
clusters to develop and perhaps organize some capable of producing
brief, gusty winds. Starting to see CAM models suggest convective
initiation occurs earlier across Central New York, which would place
debris clouds over our region in the southwesterly flow. Given this
is a common occurrence, this could very likely limit the potential
for stronger storms. Moist airmass with 1.6"-1.9" PWATs and a 30-35
kt low-level jet could support training of convection until a
stronger upper level vort will push through overnight and allow the
strengthening cold front to shift south and east. Decided to include
heavy rain wording from about 5 PM to 11 PM. Even with declining
instability overnight, thunder chances could continue given the
favorable synoptic dynamics. Anticipate roughly 0.25"-0.5" across
the region, but there will areas of locally higher amounts
associated with any convection, especially if training cells develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Wednesday...Cold front a little slow to push east as
the upper jet becomes more meridionally oriented, and it will come
across piecemeal. The Theta- E boundary crosses through about dawn.
Not much of a wind shift, still seeing cooler, drier conditions.
Highs in the 70s with some upslope showers possible as the secondary
front associated with the shift to northwest winds on Saturday
evening. This will usher in a cooler air mass with a few days of
below normal temps in store with mostly dry conditions forecast. NWP
solutions diverge greatly after Monday with regards to a trough
digging into the Northern New England and whether it develops into
an upper low. If no upper low develops, then a northern stream
shortwave trough will propagate through the region on Wednesday. If
an upper low does develop, we could end up on the drier side of
things as better moisture gets shunted south. Although if the upper
low is close enough to the New England coastline, we could get some
wrap around precipitation. Not looking at any significant warm up,
just a gradual moderate to near normal values for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Tafs have been challenging this morning
with brief ifr at slk/mpv/pbg and mss, but conditions are
improving with vfr anticipated through the next 12 to 18 hours.
As convective temps are reached, expect cumulus clouds to
increase, especially acrs the trrn with some vcsh at slk by 18z.
These showers/storms will dissipate by sunset this evening with
some patchy fog/br possible again at SLK. However, increasing
mid/upper lvl moisture may produce more clouds and limit fog/br
and associated ifr/lifr conditions at taf sites tonight. Winds
generally south/southwest at 4 to 8 knots, except southeast at
PBG associated with lake breezy boundary.  

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast 
today. Here is a look at the daily record high temperatures for
May 27th, along with the all time monthly record high 
temperatures for May. The all time monthly high temperatures 
include: 93 at BTV, 90 at MPV, 91 at 1V4 ASOS and 96 at COOP, 
96 at MSS, 94 at PBG, and 94 at SLK.

Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
05-27  91|2016  88|1960  86|2016   89|2016  94|2016  88|1914

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...Banacos/Taber/Haynes

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