Expires:201612272100;;542525
FPUS51 KBTV 271114
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
612 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016


VTZ006-272100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
612 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 20S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS 10 TO 15. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
AROUND 20. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201612271200;;543045
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    44  40  85 SW10      29.62R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     47  37  68 W13G30    29.62S                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    46  37  71 SW6G17    29.59R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  40  96 MISG      29.56F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    38  38  99 SE3       29.58R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    44  44 100 S14       29.66F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    49  43  80 SW16G24   29.70R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       33  32  96 CALM      29.68S VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    45  37  76 SW10G20   29.59R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  44  83 W8        29.71F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     39 N/A N/A W5          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A W48G67      N/A  WCI  17          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  41  87 S21         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  39  76 S12         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;542796
FXUS61 KBTV 271124
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The large storm system which brought a variety of weather to 
the region over the past 24 hours will pull away into the 
Canadian Maritimes today while gradually losing influence over 
sensible conditions. Snow shower activity will reblossom across 
northern areas tonight into Wednesday morning as a secondary 
cold front pushes through the area. Accumulations will be light 
however. After quiet weather Wednesday night, a significant 
coastal storm will develop on Thursday into Friday bringing the 
potential of significant snows to eastern Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 624 AM EST Tuesday...Forecast remains in good shape as of
600 am. Did tweak cloud cover slightly to account for current 
breaks in the overcast here and there. This trend to likely 
continue today with areas of overcast skies interspersed with 
partial clearing in favored downsloping areas as gusty 
west/southwesterly flow develops area wide. Otherwise just some 
noise-level adjustments to temperature/dewpoint data as we 
progress toward sunrise. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
Remaining advisories for freezing rain/light icing across 
eastern Vermont have been cancelled as of 300 am. Surface cold 
front/occlusion and band of steadier showers currently 
progressing across our eastern/southern Vermont counties and 
will clear the forecast area by sunrise or shortly thereafter. 
Some lingering light rain or snow shower activity will remain 
possible across the higher terrain and to the lee of Lake 
Ontario today as flow trends westerly under modest cold thermal 
advection. Those westerly winds will remain a tad gusty - into 
the 20 to 30 mph range in many spots with locally higher gusts 
to near 40 mph in the northern SLV and downsloping areas of the 
northeastern Dacks this morning. Temperatures remain a tad 
tricky as insolation and partial clearing in some spots will 
offset the advective processes. The running idea of high 
temperatures occurring during the first half of the day still 
appears reasonable with upper 30s to around 40 west, and lower 
to mid 40s east before readings slowly fall this afternoon.

By tonight variable cloud cover continues across the area in advance 
of a weak secondary cold front dropping south from southern ON/QE. 
Have maintained a higher threat of scattered/numerous snow showers 
across the northern higher terrain where orographic enhancement may 
foster light accumulations of a few tenths to perhaps 2 inches. Lows 
remaining mild - generally in the 20s.

On Wednesday morning the front will drop south through the area with 
winds veering more northwesterly over time and scattered/numerous 
snow showers across the northern counties waning/ending by 
afternoon. Some light additional accumulations of a dusting to 
perhaps an inch possible here, again, mainly in elevated terrain. 
Temperatures will only creep up slowly from prior overnight lows as 
cold thermal advection aloft is reinvigorated - generally upper 20s 
to lower 30s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 425 AM EST Tuesday...On Wednesday night surface and upper
level ridges will slide Eastward and away from the region. 
Upper level and surface troughs will approach from the Northern 
Great Lakes region. It appears the majority of guidance is too 
cold for Wednesday night. I looked for the warmest guidance that
I could find, winner was the bias corrected GFS. Lots of cloud 
cover in place and southerly winds will help to keep 
temperatures mainly in the 20s with some teens in the Northeast 
Kingdom. Also followed the warmer guidance for Thursday and have
max temperatures reaching the lower to mid 30s with some higher
values in the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. By later in 
the day Thursday a secondary low will form off the coast of Long
Island as aforementioned surface trough pushes into our CWA 
from the west on Thursday morning. Light snow is expected with 
the surface trough to spread west to east across our area, maybe
mixing with rain in the valleys. Then later Thursday into 
Thursday night with coastal low deepening and tracking 
Northeastward, snow will continue across our Eastern zones in 
closest proximity to compact low pressure system. Models still 
showing some differences with track of low and extent of heavy 
precipitation. GFS and NAM in decent agreement with track of the
low, but NAM appears to be overdoing the precipitation a bit. 
ECMWF is the furthest West with the track of the low. Believe 
that Maine and NH will be the bigger winners with this system 
with snow amounts and strong winds, but our Eastern Vermont 
zones have a good chance at seeing warning level snows. Big 
bust potential in the Champlain valley due to possible 
shadowing west of the Greens, but think will probably still see 
advisory level snows. Our western zones will mainly just have 
snow with initial surface trough crossing the area and will see 
lower than advisory totals. Snow will end from West to East 
across our area as coastal low moves Eastward. Thursday night 
will also be pretty mild with plenty of clouds over the area due
to precipitation. First look at snowfall totals...eight to 
twelve inches from the spine of the Greens eastward...four to 
six for the Dacks and Champlain Valley...one to three in the 
Saint Lawrence Valley. Would like to see another model run 
before raising a watch, still could be quite different if future
model runs come in with low tracking further Eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 425 AM EST Tuesday...From Friday onward more mild 
temperatures and active weather are expected. Former coastal low
is very slow to move away from the Northeast and we will be in 
wrap around Northwesterly flow through at least Friday night. 
Additional snow accumulations are possible in the Northwest 
facing slope areas. There will be another chance at some light 
snow from later Saturday into early Sunday with a clipper type 
low crossing just north of the area. Drier weather returns for 
Sunday night and Monday ahead of yet another large scale system.
This low is progged to pass well West of the region through the
Great Lakes and our region would be solidly in the warm sector 
and at this point can expect rain and temperatures about 15 
degrees above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
Through 12Z Wednesday...SCT/BKN mix of VFR/MVFR through the
period. MVFR most prevalent at KSLK and KMSS today. Scattered
light rain/snow showers possible in elevated terrain, but 
paucity of coverage warrants nothing more than a tacit VCSH here
and there. Winds to continue gusty from 240-280 through 00Z 
with sustained flow from 10-15 knots and gusts into the 15 to 30
knot range. This may lead to minor crosswind issues on primary 
north/south runways such as KBTV and KPBG. 

After 00Z winds continue westerly but abate to 10 knots or less.
Cigs to trend more bodily MVFR at most terminals after 06Z with
approach of weak cold front from the north. A gradual increase
in snow shower activity will be possible along this feature and
have mentioned VCSH at most northern terminals accordingly.

Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 18Z Wednesday...Mix of MVFR/VFR in 
scattered rain and snow showers with weak frontal passage. Pcpn
coverage most prevalent at northern terminals. 

18Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR under weak high
pressure.

12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...MVFR/IFR in areas of light
snow or light rain.

12Z Friday onward...Areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered snow 
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in 
effect this morning for gusty south winds to 25 knots. Choppy to
occasionally rough conditions will remain likely through mid- 
morning, especially on open water and in bays/inlets exposed to 
southerly flow. The winds will abate slightly to below advisory 
criteria by later this morning into this afternoon while 
veering to west/southwesterly. However, given the cross-lake 
flow, choppy conditions will remain likely with significant wave
heights remaining in the 1 to 3 foot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

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