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May 2020, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 24 May 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202005242000;;662584
FPUS51 KBTV 240732
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020


VTZ006-242000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Much warmer with highs in the upper 80s.
Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. 

$$


Expires:202005241100;;670518
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      52  34  50 S6        30.23R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      44  30  57 SE6       30.32R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      47  31  53 S6        30.28R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     43  35  73 MISG      30.29R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      44  31  59 E3        30.32R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      50  31  48 SW6       30.26R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      49  26  41 S9        30.27S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      38  34  85 CALM      30.34R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      53  40  61 SE3       30.20R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      45  33  62 CALM      30.28R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      49  27  42 SE6       30.26R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A SW1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A S10         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  41  58 S12         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  37  54 S24         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  32  43 S8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;663178
FXUS61 KBTV 240751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry high pressure system centered over the Canadian Maritimes
will maintain dry weather conditions through the daytime hours 
Sunday. A weak mid-level disturbance approaching from the Great 
Lakes will bring increased cloud cover and a chance for a brief 
shower Monday morning. Thereafter, conditions trend very warm 
and much more humid for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
A cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and 
thunderstorms late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Winds will become S-SE as high 
pressure drifts offshore south of Nova Scotia through the day. 
Mostly sunny skies with good heating expected, and still dealing
with E-W gradient in 850mb temperatures. Thus, should see highs
near 70F in the CT River Valley, mid 70s in the Champlain 
Valley, and upper 70s across the St. Lawrence Valley. Tonight 
into Monday morning a shortwave trough will push into our area, 
and we'll have a chance for some showers, especially over 
Northern NY. Lows tonight will be low- mid 50s for nrn NY, lower
50s in the Champlain Valley, and in the 40s east of the Greens 
with later arrival of clouds. Southerly gradient winds will also
be on the increase Sunday night in the Champlain Valley. May be
close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria toward daybreak on Monday,
with broad lake winds 15-25kts possible. Surface warm front 
crossing the area on Monday, so just a chance for light rain 
showers early Monday, though limited moisture so QPF will be 
light. High temperatures on Monday will depend on how much 
clearing we'll have behind departing warm front. Winds will 
continue to be gusty out of the south as well. Right now 
thinking that highs will range through the 70s, coolest east of 
the Greens and warmest in the St Lawrence valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Sunday...Mid/upper lvl ridge will be building
from the Mid Atlantic states into the ne conus, while 1024mb sfc
high pres shifts off the East Coast. South to southwest 925mb to
850mb flow will continue to advect very warm thermal profiles
into our region, along with an increase in dwpts/rh values,
especially toward mid week. GFS ensemble data indicates 2 to 3
std above normal heights with 850mb temps in the 1 to 3 std
above normal as we approach Tues into Weds. This supports much
above normal temps developing, especially as progged 925mb temps
range in the 20c to 22c range, supporting highs upper 80s to
lower 90s on Tues. Still cannot completely rule out an
airmass/trrn driven storm or two, given the building
heat/humidity, but forcing is very limited with developing
ridging aloft. Have continued with previous fcsters idea of
schc/low chc for dacks into central/northern VT mountains on
Tues aftn, as sfc based cape values climb into the 1500 to 2000
j/kg, but shear is marginal with weak wind profiles. Comfortable
overnight lows in the lower 50s to near 60 expected Monday 
Night, but Tues Night lows range from the upper 50s to mid 60s 
with slightly higher dwpts, along with a southerly winds in the 
wider valleys.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Sunday...The fcst challenge for days 4 thru 7
continues to be timing of potential boundary and associated chcs
for showers/storms, along with impacts on temps. Guidance
continues to delay arrival of boundary by another 6 to 12 hours,
resulting in another potential day of very warm temps for Weds
and Thurs, before cooler air arrives for Friday into Saturday.
Progged 925mb temps warm another degree or two on Weds,
supporting highs upper 80s to lower 90s acrs our cwa, with best
axis of sfc based cape acrs northern NY. In addition, sfc dwpts
climb into the mid/upper 60s by Weds, producing some localized
higher heat index values, especially UHI areas. Given some
instability and slightly lower heights with better southwest
flow aloft, have continued to mention schc/low chc pops
SLV/northern NY into northern VT on Weds aftn/evening. Very
difficult if weak embedded vort in the slightly stronger
southwesterly flow aloft will cross our northern CWA on Weds and
help increase the forcing and risk of stronger convection. Sfc
gradient supports and deeper mixing supports breezy
south/southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph on Weds and Thurs aftns.
 
A very warm and muggy night is expected Weds Night and Thurs 
Night with temps holding in the 60s with some values near 70 in 
cities by Thurs Night. Better chances for showers/storms arrive 
Thurs into Friday with associated cold front, lowering heights, 
better wind profiles and moderate sfc based cape values in the 
1500 to 2000 j/kg range. Timing of boundary and associated 
dynamics will be important to how robust storms become on 
Thurs/Fri timeframe. An overnight timing would result in less 
instability with probably just a few storms around, while mid 
aftn would support a greater potential for strong to severe 
storms. In addition, have noted pw values in the 1.50 to 1.75 
pooling ahead of boundary acrs southern Canada on Thurs into 
Friday, which is 1 to 3 std above normal, so some localized 
heavier downpours possible with stronger convective elements. 
Cooler and drier air returns by next weekend on breezy northwest
winds. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions through the forecast 
period. Periods of gusty southeast winds in the 15 to 25 mph 
range at RUT, and 15-20 mph gusts also out of the southeast 
developing after 14Z at MPV, PBG, and BTV. Farther west at SLK 
and MSS, expect some thin cloud cover and light and variable 
winds trending towards southeasterly by 19Z. Mainly just a wind 
TAF with no weather and only high clouds. 

Outlook...

Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles

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