Expires:201609062000;;012170
FPUS51 KBTV 060748
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016


VTZ006-062000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
346 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201609061100;;018941
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    57  53  86 CALM      30.12R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       50  50 100 CALM      30.19R VSB 1/2          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       49  47  93 CALM      30.17R VSB 1            
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  52  93 MISG      30.13S                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     51  51  98 NE3       30.16R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      55  55 100 CALM      30.12R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    57  55  93 S5        30.12R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    61  57  87 CALM      30.10S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      54  53  97 CALM      30.13R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      47  46  99 SW3       30.16S                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    59  54  83 CALM      30.08R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  59  82 SE6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  59  82 N6          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  61  82 N8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;015252
FXUS61 KBTV 060844
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
444 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through midweek
with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The next chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be on Thursday afternoon associated
with a cold front...along with breezy winds. Temperatures will be
in the upper 70s to mid 80s most locations with maybe a few
readings near 90 degrees in the warmer valleys on Thursday. Cooler
and unsettled weather is expected for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Tuesday...Another mostly sunny day is expected
across the north country today, except for some low marine layer
stratus clouds across the Connecticut valley in southeast Vermont.
Patchy dense valley fog across the sheltered valleys of eastern
and northeast Vermont, as well as over northern New York will burn
off by mid morning. Expecting high temperatures today to range
from the upper 70s to lower to mid 80s.

Tonight, models showing some low clouds associated with the
remnants of Hermine will move westward into eastern and southeast
Vermont tonight. This cloud cover will inhibit the development of
radiation fog across Vermont, so will not mention any fog tonight
in these areas due to the cloud cover. However, will mention some
patchy dense fog over the sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks
after midnight tonight, as skies there will be clear tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...Main challenge continues to be cloud
cover forecast until post-tropical cyclone Hermine weakens and
exits right out to sea on Thu. Continuing with a mainly dry
forecast though with some clouds in eastern VT with onshore flow
but confidence in exactly how it plays out is still not high as
models continue to struggle with even getting the initial position
correct and current low clouds moving westward in eastern VT.
Looks like low-level moisture will continue to advects north and
west will at least bring scattered to broken cumulus clouds during
the afternoon hours but at worst could be broken to overcast
stratocumulus or stratus Wed morning night with a sprinkle/drizzle
in far SE VT with blocked upslope flow into the central and
southern Greens.

See little change in 850/925mb temps from today with readings
around 15/20C supporting highs mid 80s Champlain and Saint
Lawrence Valleys with upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains and
eastern VT. Could be tricky near VSF if clouds linger all day.
Overnight lows Wed night will be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...The main weather features affecting
our region will be a cold front with showers and thunderstorms
Thursday aft/eve then a warm front on Saturday followed by a cold
front Sat night/early Sunday with more showers and storms. It will
continue to be warm Thu and humid until the cold frontal passage
this weekend which will be followed by cooler and less humid air
later Sunday into Monday.

On Thu GFS/NAM differ greatly on moisture and instability with
little CAPE on the GFS and an axis of up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE on
NAM. Probably end up somewhere between on the order of 500-1000
J/kg and used that for a blend to determine thunderstorm coverage.
0-6km shear increases to 25 to 35 knots on suggesting a chance of
severe with a pre-frontal trough. Also of note is narrow plume of
precipitable water around 2" and warm cloud depths up to 4.5km
which suggest any storms could produce locally heavy rain. 850
temps continue warm around 17C so highs again well into the 80s on
Thu and near 90 still possible but will depend on cloud cover.

A front will follow late Thu night with continued chance of showers and
storms followed by clearing and drier Friday. So highs Friday somewhere
in the 70s to lower 80s with 850 temps near 13-14C.

Models in fair agreement over the weekend as a strong upper level
trough and frontal system approach with showers and slight chance of
thunder with a warm front on Sat then cold front either Sat night
(ECMWF) or Sunday morning (GFS). Some clearing is possible by later on
Sunday with cooler temperatures. High generally in the 70s with clouds
and chance of showers.

By Monday a northwest flow of cooler and much less humid Canadian air
will bring temps in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period, as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft
remains over the region. Areas of patchy dense valley fog early
this morning across eastern and northeast Vermont, as well as the
sheltered valleys of northern New York will burn off by 1330Z
Tuesday. Some low clouds from marine layer of stratus moving
westward from the Atlantic Ocean will move into portions of
southern and eastern Vermont through the period, especially at
KVSF and KRUT.

Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... Moisture from Hermine
will push back into central and eastern VT and may impact MPV with
some low clouds and drizzle on Tuesday Night. Given the expected
easterly upslope and blocked flow...some mvfr cigs are likely on
Tuesday Night into Weds at mpv. Also...expecting vlifr conditions
at slk with fog development between 06-12z weds. Ridge of high
pres breaks down on Thursday with chances of showers and embedded
thunderstorms...along with brief periods of mvfr. Breezy southwest
winds are possible ahead of a cold front on Thursday...with a
shift to the northwest by Friday. Additional showers with our next
system along with breezy winds are expected on Saturday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...WGH/Taber

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