Expires:202304011800;;038086
FPUS51 KBTV 011024
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023
VTZ018-011800-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023
.TODAY...Rain this morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds
15 to 20 mph, becoming southwest this afternoon. Gusts up to
40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Rain showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of snow or rain
showers after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty
winds until midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with
lows around 19. West winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph,
increasing to northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in
the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph
in the morning.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 19. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
35 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Highs in the lower
50s. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 20s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
$$
Expires:202304011100;;038316
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT APR 01 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 37 36 96 S5 29.57F FOG
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 34 31 88 S3 29.68F FOG
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 34 31 88 S3 29.63F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 33 31 92 MISG 29.67F
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 32 32 100 SE5 29.65F VSB 1 WCI 27
MIDDLEBURY* RAIN 40 40 100 S7 29.56F
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 36 36 100 SE13 29.62F WCI 27
SPRINGFIELD RAIN 35 34 96 NE3 29.68F FOG
HIGHGATE* MIX PCPN 39 38 95 SE7 29.56F
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 34 33 94 S5 29.62F WCI 30
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 48 39 71 S6 29.59F
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A E5 N/A WCI 27
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 34 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 36 34 93 S12 N/A WCI 27
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 37 36 93 S21 N/A WCI 27
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 36 36 100 S12 N/A WCI 27
$$
Expires:No;;029683
FXUS61 KBTV 010742
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of moderate rain will develop this morning, along with
a rumble or two of thunder possible. Later this morning and
early afternoon, windy and warm conditions will develop behind
this warm front. Towards evening, a line of strong showers and
potentially some thunder will shift eastwards, followed by cold
and breezy conditions Sunday morning. More seasonable temperatures
will develop early in the week. A fast moving front will shift
east Monday evening, but the next widespread precipitation will
arrive Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...So far, things seem to be shaping up
according to the forecast expectations. There has not been much
drizzle to speak of in the forecast area, with mainly just murky
skies and reduced visibility. A thin strip of light rain and
localized mixed p-types continues to slowly slide north. Across
central New York lies the strong warm front that will move overhead
about dawn. It continues to produce lightning, and have added the
slight chance for a rumble of thunder as it lifts northeast with
some weakening expected as it crosses our area. This batch should
produce about 0.25" to 0.50" of rain for the area this morning
before racing northeast about noon.
Wind advisory remains in effect 8 AM through 4 PM over the northern
Adirondacks. There is little change in the forecast expectations of
a narrow wind of downslope winds in the dry slot. Several pockets of
40 mph gusts and a few gusts to near 50 were noted behind the warm
front across Ohio. Once the mid-level low moves overhead later this
afternoon, winds aloft quickly decrease, and downslope winds will
come to an end.
Strong warming is still expected from a combination of warm
advection and strong sunlight within the dry slot of stacked low
pressure. Mid 50s to lower 60s are expected for much of the area,
with southern Vermont seeing some mid 60s, even. This warming will
prime the area for some mid-afternoon convection. Mid-level cooling
beneath the stacked low moving overhead and a sharpening trough axis
across central New York will provide a forcing mechanism for
convection. As we approach evening, the mid-level low will begin to
track towards Maine, and impart stable, dry northwest flow into the
area, with a cold front beginning to dive southeastwards. Convective
development will lie south of this boundary, and trends have been
for initiation to take place further south. Still, across parts of
the Adirondacks and southern Vermont, there remains enough
instability and shear that there's the potential, but dry air could
inhibit updrafts as diurnal instability is also waning, which could
keep activity from holding together as it reaches our forecast area.
A slight risk (Level 2 of 5) remains in effect over Rutland and
Windsor County for the activity this afternoon.
Based on this trend, our QPF has come down, and the window of very
warm temperatures is smaller. Thus, the potential for river flooding
appears a bit less likely. Nevertheless, there should be enough rain
and snowmelt for the expected sharp river rises up towards bankfull.
More details noted within the Hydro section below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...We head into tonight, the cold
front will continue to slide south, with strong cold advection
behind allowing temperatures to quickly fall. As winds become
northwesterly, it will become a breezy night, with 15 to 20 mph
winds and gusts up to 30. Overnight lows should sink into teens
to 20s, with lingering mountain snow showers. It will be slow to
warm up on Sunday. Any patchy, black ice (somewhat contingent
on afternoon convection) will sublimate fairly quickly due to
very dry air across the area, along with strong winds. As the
sun rises, melting and evaporation should make quick work of it.
Still plenty cool during the afternoon, with the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom likely to remain below freezing while the
broader valleys manage mid 30s, though closer to 40 in
Springfield. Any mountain snow showers should come to an end
fairly quickly from the dry air to shift over the region. With
dewpoints in the single digits, relative humidity values will be
in the 20s during the afternoon.
Sunday night will be a good night for radiational cooling, at first.
Clear and dry conditions, along with calming winds, should allow
temperatures to quickly sink. However, it appears high clouds will
translate east across the area ahead of a clipper system on Monday.
So overnight lows should once again fall into the teens to mid 20s
across Vermont and northern New York. Fairly substantial warming
takes place on Monday within the warm sector of the clipper low,
with upper 40s to mid 50s after such a cool night. Part of the
reason will be the efficient warm advection, as sustained south
winds increase to 15 to 20 mph. Scattered to widespread shower
activity should develop along the front as it crosses mid to late
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...The long-term forecast period begins
relatively quiet as a modest cold front settles south of our region
early Monday night. Other than a linger rain or snow shower Monday
evening, trend should be toward partial clearing Monday night as
narrow ridge of high pressure builds southeastward from Ontario.
Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Tuesday should remain quiet with high pressure providing light
northerly winds and seasonable temperatures (highs in the upper 40s
near the intl border, to mid-50s across south-central VT).
It continues to appear that a developing deep low pressure system
moving newd across the western Great Lakes should allow a warm front
to lift into NY and New England on Wednesday. Should see periods of
rain showers sometime Wednesday into Wednesday night, with highs
Wednesday mid 50s to lower 60s, and remaining relatively mild with
lows in the 40s Wednesday night. The trailing cold front arrives
sometime Thursday, and kept highest PoPs in the morning hours for
rain showers. May see a few mountain snow showers later Thursday
with orographic ascent in nwly flow and increasing low-level CAA.
Temperatures fall back into the mid 20s to lower 30s Thursday night,
with high temperatures only in the 40s Friday in post-frontal air
mass.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...A warm front lifting across the North
Country early this morning will initially bring IFR/MVFR
ceilings with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Some light periods of rain are
possible at times through 11-12Z. Thereafter, we are watching
the widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across far wrn
NY and sern Ontario. This activity will push across the North
Country TAF sites mainly between 11-14Z, with periods of showers
and a chance (30%) of thunderstorms. We should also see low-
level wind shear developing around 12Z, as a swly low-level jet
moves across the region. The period of showers and possible
embedded thunderstorms will be followed by a dry slot with
mainly VFR conditions from 15-22Z. Winds will develop from the
S-SW at moderate speeds, with some gusts 20-30kt during the
midday hours at SLK/MSS/PBG/BTV. Upper low brings another round
of rain showers to the TAF sites 22-02Z, with intervals of MVFR
conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. Should
see a W-NWLY wind shift during Saturday evening.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...An additional third of an inch to
three quarters of an inch of rain is expected from a strong warm
front to lift through this morning. After several hours of dry,
warm conditions, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely
to develop, mainly south. The trend for the coverage of
convection this afternoon is less, which has resulted in a
slight reduction in expected rainfall contributions. Yet,
additional contributions from snowmelt are modeled to be in the
1-1.5", so total liquid amounts entering area waterways will be
in the 1.5-3" range, which will cause moderate rises. At this
time, it appears the potential for minor flooding has decreased,
but several main stem rivers are still expected to approach
bankfull late tonight into early Sunday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
afternoon for NYZ027-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...BTV
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