Expires:201612242100;;382313
FPUS51 KBTV 241122
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2016


VTZ006-242100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
620 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2016

.TODAY...RAIN OR A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. 

$$


Expires:201612241200;;382561
ASUS41 KBTV 241130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    38  22  52 S12       30.03F WCI  30          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    34  19  54 SE5       30.07F WCI  30          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    27  21  78 N3        30.06F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     27  23  85 MISG      30.08F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      30  21  69 CALM      30.07F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    34  20  57 CALM      30.08R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    35  19  52 SE12      30.08F WCI  27          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    26  22  84 CALM      30.14F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    39  20  46 S6        30.00F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    44  12  27 SW7       30.09F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A SE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A SW30G47     N/A  WCI   8          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  27  60 S18         N/A  WCI  30          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  32  75 S30         N/A  WCI  27          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  27  65 S21         N/A  WCI  27          

$$


Expires:No;;383213
FXUS61 KBTV 241144
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure passing well north of the forecast area 
will bring light snow to the region this morning, and some areas of 
drizzle this afternoon before high pressure returns for Christmas 
Day. More mixed precipitation is expected Monday evening and night, 
with cooler and more seasonable weather returning for the middle to 
end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 644 AM EST Saturday...Forecast remains on track for a 
messy start to the holiday weekend as weak low pressure 
currently centered over the tip of James Bay will drag a series 
of fronts through the region today and tonight. The first 
frontal boundary shifts through today with light precipitation 
spreading from west to east after 12z, and exiting east of the 
forecast area after 21z. Precipitation will briefly start as 
snow or a mix of rain and snow, but a warming boundary above 
freezing area-wide by noon will support mainly rain as the 
dominant ptype. Nevertheless, outside of the deeper valleys, a 
quick dusting to perhaps an inch of snow is possible before the 
changeover which could make for some locally slick roadways. 
After 21z, shortwave energy and deep moisture quickly shift east
of the area with precipitation chances rapidly diminishing. 
Secondary cold frontal boundary shifts through tonight and while
some additional orographic enhancement to precip is possible 
during the overnight, the available moisture becomes so shallow 
that very dry air exists in the favorable snow growth region. 
This supports drizzle and/or freezing drizzle or even "snizzle" 
along the higher summits, so have reduced snow amounts from 
previous forecast. In fact, I could see the summits even above 
the clouds come Christmas morning.

High pressure returns for Christmas Day with a general clearing
trend expected through the day. Aforementioned cold front clears
the area during the morning hours with high temps mainly
occurring early in the day ranging through the 20s, and 
remaining steady or slowly falling through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...Quite a challenge 
temperature/weatherwise by Sunday night into Monday. Latest 
output maintains prior idea that on Sunday night the southern 
portions of expansive central Canada arctic high pressure will 
bleed south into our area with clear/partly cloudy skies and 
chilly temperatures. This airmass will be quite shallow given 
relatively high 1000-500 mb thickness values in the 530s dm 
range. For now leaned toward a blend of guidance with more 
emphasis on MOS- based output suggesting mins generally in the 
positive/negative single digits and locally to near -10F in far 
northeastern VT. Mountain summits may be a bit warmer, certainly
later at night when southerly return flow develops aloft.

By Monday a well-advertised, deepening cyclone will track from the 
Northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes, driving a warm front 
and associated precipitation into the area by afternoon/early 
evening. A tightening pressure gradient will develop between this 
feature and our departing strong surface high such that enhanced 
southerly gusts will be likely from the Green Mountain spine 
westward through the day. Indeed, latest analysis remains in good 
agreement showing particularly robust Champlain Valley low level jet 
development with mean 925 mb flow in the 50-60 kt range by 
afternoon. This would support gusts to near 40 kt in the valley and 
a wind advisory may be needed on Monday if current trends continue.
In regard to p-type, mixed-pcpn top-down methodology still on board 
showing at least potential of some light sleet or freezing rain for 
several hours in eastern VT and sheltered hollows of the northern 
Adirondacks as pcpn arrives later in the day and strong warm thermal 
advection develops aloft. Tricky to determine exact light icing 
amounts given the race between boundary layer warming and arrival of 
pcpn. Nonetheless I've at least painted in some light accretions 
from a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch in these 
aforementioned areas - generally minor stuff but may warrant an 
advisory as we near this time frame. High temperatures will likely 
occur toward day's end and actually peak into the evening hours on 
Monday with values from the upper 30s/lower 40s expected from the 
Champlain Valley west, though only in the 33 to 37 range or so 
across eastern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...We start Monday night embedded 
within system warm sector and relatively milder late December 
temperatures. By later in the evening and overnight the Great 
Lake cyclone's attendant cold front will sweep across the area 
with a band of steadier showers or a period of light rain. Any 
lingering light icing threat far eastern/northeastern VT should 
end during this time as well. Temperatures hold steady or slowly
climb a few degrees through midnight or so, then begin to fall 
slowly late as cold front clears east and we enter a pronounced 
dry slot aloft.

Behind this system, scattered rain/snow shower activity is expected 
on Tuesday as modest post-frontal cold thermal advection continues 
on mean westerly flow. Morning highs generally in the 30s to around 
40 with values slowly falling by afternoon. Snow shower activity 
then becomes more confined to the northern mountains by Tuesday 
night as boundary layer moisture wanes and mean flow veers slowly to 
northwest. Lows by Wednesday morning generally in the upper teens to 
mid 20s.

Looking further out, our active weather pattern continues with 
additional energy ejecting from the midwest remaining on track to 
affect the area by Thursday into Friday with additional light 
snow/snow shower activity. Some differences remain among this 
morning's medium range output with the ECMWF holding onto it's 
coastal low development and somewhat heavier qpf scenario, while the 
GFS shows a progressive upper trough/surface wave. Time will tell on 
how this pans out, but given consistency in timing of the trough 
arrival I've maintained likely pops in this time frame accordingly. 
In regard to temperatures, it appears that nothing too cold lies on 
the horizon though readings will gradually ease back toward cooler, 
more seasonal late December norms by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will gradually lower to MVFR
in developing rain showers with brief IFR vsby possible at
KMSS/KSLK in snow before a changeover to rain. Light rain
persists through 18-21Z with MVFR vsby, thereafter trending to
VFR but MVFR cigs remain through most of the period. In 
addition, breezy to gusty south/southwest winds of 15 to 25 
knots will occur at KBTV/KMSS/KSLK with localized gusts near 30 
knots possible. Winds shift to the west/northwest after 00z 
Sunday, remaining gusty.

Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday...

12z Sunday through 12z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12z Monday through 12z Tuesday...VFR trending to MVFR in a
wintry mix changing to rain after 00z Tuesday. Gusty SSW winds,
LLWS and turbulence likely. 

12z Tuesday through 00z Thursday...Mix of MVFR/VFR in scattered
snow showers. Gusty WNW winds likely through 00z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 356 AM EST Saturday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in 
effect for today with south winds of 15 to 25 knots and some 
gusts up to 35 knots possible. This will create hazardous 
conditions for small vessels with wave heights in the 2 to 4 
foot range, highest in the northern portion of the broad lake 
from the Four Brothers to Stave Island. Winds will briefly 
diminish below 20 knots this evening, before increasing again 
from the northwest after midnight as a cold front shifts through
the region. Advisory conditions may persist through Christmas 
Day.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Lahiff

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