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SKIVT-L  March 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 25 Mar 2018 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (256 lines)

Expires:201803252000;;444940
FPUS51 KBTV 250909
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
506 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
506 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows 6 to 12 above. North winds around 10 mph
until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Lows
around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with scattered rain showers with a chance of
snow. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in the mid
30s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs around
50. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers. Highs
in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with scattered rain or snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201803251100;;447744
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    27  23  85 N5        30.39R WCI  22          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    22  21  96 CALM      30.38R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    22  19  89 CALM      30.38R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  22  88 MISG      30.34R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    24  21  87 CALM      30.35R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    22  16  78 CALM      30.37R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    23  19  85 CALM      30.33R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    28  21  75 NE6       30.33R WCI  22          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      23  21  91 CALM      30.42R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    25  23  94 N8        30.38R WCI  16          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    23  16  74 SW3       30.29R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A E6G28       N/A  WCI   9          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     28  25  86 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  27  86 N14         N/A  WCI  20          

$$


Expires:No;;443619
FXUS61 KBTV 250842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
442 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A building ridge of high pressure both aloft and at the surface
will produce dry conditions with warming temperatures for early
this upcoming week. A cloudy start today will end with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures in the 30s. The combination of clear
skies and light winds will produce cold temperatures tonight,
before values warm into the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday and mid
40s to lower 50s on Tuesday. The next system will provide the
region with a cold rain on Tuesday Night into Wednesday with
a wintry mix possible in the higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast challenge today will be how
quickly clouds dissipate...followed by temps thru the near term
period. Synoptic setup features mid/upper level trof prevailing
across the ne conus with decaying ribbon of mid level moisture
associated with easterly 925mb to 700mb flow. Soundings and
latest 850 to 700mb rh fields show best/deepest moisture across
our cwa thru 15z...before quickly shifting south by 18z. In
addition...the building heights aloft and developing sfc high
pres from southern Canada will help to advect much drier air
into our cwa by this aftn. So expecting mostly cloudy skies this
morning will quickly give away to mostly sunny this aftn...as
deep dry layer builds overhead. In addition...thinking clouds
will impact rate of rise in the temp department this morning
with values mainly in the mid 20s to lower 30s...but warm into
the mid 30s to lower 40s by mid to late aftn. Progged 850mb to
925mb temps are 2 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterdays with
values between -8c and -10c...supporting this thinking.

Tonight...1040mb high pres located over northern Maine with
building mid/upper level ridge will produce clear skies and
light north/northeast winds. This combined with snow pack,
especially mountain valleys will result in temps quickly
dropping after sunset. Have continued trends of previous couple
of fcsts and went 4 to 8 degrees colder than the coldest
guidance. This idea supports near 0f at slk/nek with 10f colder
valleys of central vt to mid/upper teens cpv/slv. Given recent
trends at slk, would not be surprised if they drop between -4f
and -8f by 11z Monday...even with some of the 925mb temps. 

Monday...temps warm quickly under mostly sunny skies and light
northeast winds. Ideal sugaring weather will continue with
warming days and cool nights. Progged 850mb temps warm another 
1 to 2 degrees by 18z Monday...supporting highs upper 30s to mid
40s Valleys and mid/upper 20s on the summits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 440 AM EDT Sunday...The weather in the short term will be 
dominated by ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface 
centered over the Canadian Maritimes. This setup will put the 
forecast area solidly in southwesterly return flow behind the 
high, resulting in increasing warm air/moisture advection 
through midweek. Monday night will be the last clear night for a
while before the better moisture arrives Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Looking at one last night of fairly effective radiational 
cooling Monday night, however thinking a slight increase of 
winds (due to the tightening pressure gradient behind the 
departing high) and the generally warmer air mass moving in will
keep overnight temperatures 5-10 degrees F warmer than Sunday 
night. Look for overnight temps in the 20s in valley locations 
and the teens in the northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. 

Tuesday should be a pretty nice day overall. Increasing
southwesterly flow will allow daytime temperatures to warm to
around 50 in valley locations. High clouds will move into the
area, increasing and thickening throughout the day. A warm front
will push through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, bringing with
it some precipitation. Strengthening southwesterly winds will
accompany the precipitation as a low level jet sets up overhead.
The strong southwesterly flow will cause some of the
precipitation to be downsloped in typical locations in the lee
of the mountains. Most of the precipitation that does make it to
the surface will fall as a cold rain, however the northern
Adirondacks along with the Green Mountains could see some wintry
mix Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Sunday...Wednesday morning, temperatures will 
warm enough through the forecast area to support a predominant 
precipitation type of rain. Temperatures will be in the mid to 
upper 40s during the daytime, and only fall into the 30s/low 40s 
Wednesday night. Thursday morning, a cold front will push 
through, followed by a brief break in the precipitation during 
the daytime hours as some drier air moves in. 850 temperatures 
will only cool a few degrees behind the frontal passage however,
and as some sunshine is able to break through during the day, 
would expect temperatures to warm to the low 50s during the day.

Thursday night into Friday morning, a southern stream shortwave
moving through the central US will phase with northern stream
energy and trigger the development of a surface low pressure
system in the lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will
track northeast, moving through New England/southern Quebec
during the day Friday and bring us another round of
precipitation to close out the work week. Models have yet to
come to a consensus on the track of the low, which will have
implications on precipitation type and timing for our area,
however the most likely scenario at this point looks like a cold
rain during the day Friday that will transition to some snow
Friday night. This system is still almost a week away, so much
could change during this time. Saturday will be colder as
northwesterly flow commences behind the departing system. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Current radar and obs show a band of light
snow impacting northern/eastern Vt this morning with vis between
3-5sm. The best mid level moisture continues to be progged from
the eastern dacks into VT...while best upper level forcing from
s/w energy is located over northern NY. Based on progged
NAM/HRRR and BTV 4km composite reflectivity thinking a band of
light snow will impact pbg/btv/mpv and slk between 06-09z this
morning. Have continued to utilize tempo with mvfr vis and cigs
expected. A brief 20 to 30 minute window of ifr vis of 1 to 2sm
possible at mpv...but confidence is low given dry airmass in low
levels. Otherwise...lingering light snow will dissipate by
sunrise with cigs quickly becoming vfr by midday. Expect vfr
conditions from 16z thru 06z Monday for all taf sites with
north/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming light trrn driven
overnight. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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