Expires:202008202000;;532426
FPUS51 KBTV 201044
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
VTZ006-202000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
642 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the lower 70s. Light and variable winds.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of
rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202008201100;;531913
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 52 49 89 E5 30.06R
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 46 45 96 CALM 30.11R
MORRISVILLE FOG 47 46 97 CALM 30.07S VSB 3/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 48 47 96 MISG 30.06R
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 44 43 97 CALM 30.08R VSB 3/4
RUTLAND* FOG 48 48 100 SE3 30.08S VSB 1/4
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 48 47 96 CALM 30.07S FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 47 44 90 CALM 30.06R
NEWPORT* FAIR 46 43 87 SW6 30.07R
BENNINGTON CLEAR 48 46 93 CALM 30.08R
ISLAND POND* N/A 43 N/A N/A E2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 41 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 46 N/A N/A N1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 46 N/A N/A W29 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 61 52 72 W7 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 54 77 W12 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 57 55 94 SE5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;524784
FXUS61 KBTV 200744
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool this morning with valley fog gradually lifting. Forecast
conditions will be pleasant this afternoon with highs in the 70s.
For the weekend, a series of disturbances will slide east across
the region. The likelihood of precipitation has increased as
conditions appear more favorable for scattered showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest chances along the
International Border. Several weak systems are forecast to
quickly move across the North Country, which will mean our
weather will cycle between drier weather followed by scattered
showers and thunderstorms for start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Thursday...Valley fog continues to slowly expand as
we progress further into the night. Fog will lift with the sun, and
we will see passing high clouds from a disturbance to our west. Mid-
level ridging beneath a longwave upper trough means we are in for
another perfect late August day in the North Country. Strong
radiational cooling this evening with light winds and mostly clear
skies has resulted in morning temperatures below seasonal norms.
Saranac Lake is down to a notable 37, but needs to get down to
30 if they want to break a daily record. Elsewhere, temperatures
are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Outside of Lake
Champlain, most will wake up to lows in the 40s. Temperatures
warm nicely into the 70s this afternoon with light winds.
As we progress towards the evening hours, clouds increase as a
subtle shortwave spreads eastward. A mid-level frontal axis will
drape itself across our area. It appears this feature will now
position itself a bit further south and closer to our forecast area.
Thus, have raised PoPs and sky cover upwards for Thursday night into
Friday, especially along the International Border. This area of
precipitation will gradually sag southwards with during the day
Friday. Area of cloudiness and precipitation across the
International Border will establish a thermal boundary across our
region (highs in the mid 80s in our southern valleys, and mid 70s
along the International Border), providing a focus for showers and
storms in the afternoon stretching from the Adirondacks eastwards
across Chittenden/Addison County and into Orange/Caledonia Counties
of Vermont. Modest destabilization takes place with 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, though not entirely surface based with a warm layer just
above the surface. Additionally, relatively fast flow along the mid-
level boundary will result in about 30 knots of 0-3km shear. It will
be difficult to mix winds down to the surface due to the poor low-
level lapse rates, but if any organization develops, we could see a
few storms capable of gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
Rainfall amounts highest north of Rutland/Windsor Counties where
0.05"-0.25" with locally higher amounts are possible. Across
Rutland/Windsor Counties, only a few hundredths are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 AM EDT Thursday...The end of the week continues to look
unsettled as a frontal boundary will be wavering over the North
Country through this period. While there are still differences in
the details, models seem to have come into consensus that the front
will move south out of Canada Friday evening/night, then remain
draped over the region into Saturday before perhaps lifting back
north late in the day Saturday and eventually moving back north of
the international border. Any showers and thunderstorms lingering
from Friday afternoon will wane Friday night as best moisture shifts
east. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected on Saturday as increasing moisture interacts with the
frontal boundary. While the exact placement/strength of convection
will rely on where the front sets up and/or moves north, current
indications are that there will be decent instability, with 1000+
J/kg possible by Saturday afternoon. Shear looks good as well,
though the NAM is a bit more generous (40-50 kt) than the GFS (20 to
40 kt). With a slight warm layer between 850-900 mb though,
convection could well be capped or elevated in nature. Regardless,
the front will lift north overnight Saturday night, allowing any
lingering activity to come to an end. Saturday's high temperatures
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s in most locations, while
overnight lows both Friday and Saturday nights will be in the lower
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Thursday...Weak low pressure will skirt by to our
north and eventually east on Sunday, dragging a cold front along in
its wake. This will allow for another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the North Country during the day, then drier
conditions work in for Sunday night and Monday. Things are a bit
more uncertain thereafter; we become positioned under west to
northwest flow, with disturbances to stream through and over our
area through mid week. As is usual, models have a hard time agreeing
on the time/strength of these upper shortwaves, so have stayed with
a lot of slight chance/chance wording through the remainder of the
week. After a warm day on Sunday, things look to cool down
thereafter with temperatures remaining closer to seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Current conditions are mostly VFR, with
fog at KRUT and KMSS causing MVFR to intermittent LIFR.
Anticipate fog to expand into KSLK and KMPV within the next
couple hours with periods of LIFR possible, especially at KMPV.
High clouds streaming in from the west may put an early end to
fog across KSLK/KMSS/KRUT or could result in fluctuations in
visibilities generally between 1/2SM and 5SM. Calm to light,
variable winds through 13Z, with terrain driven southeasterly
winds at KRUT tonight. After 13Z, winds are expected to begin
transitioning to southwesterly during the day at 4 to 7 knots.
Also after 13Z, increasing mid-level clouds around 7000-12000 ft
agl are expected. A few scattered showers will be near KMSS
after 03Z Friday, while the rest of the region will remain dry.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
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