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April 2014, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 6 Apr 2014 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (220 lines)
Expires:201404062000;;227800
FPUS51 KBTV 060810
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

VTZ006-062000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
410 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
$$

Expires:201404061100;;232947
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   34  19  54 NW12G21   30.09R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    29  19  66 NW13G26   30.04R WCI  19          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    31  18  58 NW14G20   30.05R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  21  66 MISG      29.99R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  30  21  70 NW9       30.00R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  22  67 W7        30.09R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  18  59 W10       30.06R                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     32  19  58 W6        30.05R                  
HIGHGATE*      PTSUNNY   34  22  61 W6        30.08R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    31  19  62 W10G16    30.02R                  
BENNINGTON     MOSUNNY   30  19  63 W10       30.08R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A NW29G43     N/A  WCI  -2          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  25  74 W12         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  23  64 NW16        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  21  60 W10         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;228056
FXUS61 KBTV 060814
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 
INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY 
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL 
PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD 
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. 
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING 
BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS
TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS
SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z
TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND
-1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE
WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL
ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW
COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU
MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME
MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB
TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE
DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE
BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE
TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH
60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER
VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM 
SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED 
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50 
AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. 
HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z 
NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75 
KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH 
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS 
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS 
WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST 
VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS. 
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR 
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS 
THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF 
FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE 
MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND 
EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE 
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF 
SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY 
AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED 
ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD 
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND 
6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY 
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR 
SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION 
ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM 
BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF 
ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z 
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST 
DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW 
MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE 
WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS. 
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS 
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND 
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 
20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH 
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS 
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS 
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN 
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT 
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT 
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION 
WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING 
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS 
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY 
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. 
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

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