Expires:201808072000;;686009
FPUS51 KBTV 071047
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
VTZ006-072000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
644 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
.TODAY...Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this
afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly until midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
and heavy rainfall until midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid with highs in
the lower 80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
$$
Expires:201808071100;;685351
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 76 69 79 S7 29.92R
MONTPELIER FAIR 67 67 100 CALM 30.00R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 66 66 100 CALM 29.95R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 68 68 100 MISG 29.93S
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 66 65 97 CALM 29.98R VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 71 67 86 S3 29.95R
RUTLAND* FAIR 68 66 93 SE8 29.98
SPRINGFIELD FOG 67 67 100 CALM 29.98S VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* FAIR 73 69 87 S3 29.91R
NEWPORT* FAIR 66 66 99 CALM 29.95S FOG
BENNINGTON FAIR 66 64 93 CALM 29.98S FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 64 N/A N/A CALM N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 66 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 64 N/A N/A SW24 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 77 70 78 SW9G18 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 75 72 88 S14 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 75 73 94 S5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;680023
FXUS61 KBTV 070815
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
415 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and muggy conditions will persist through the middle of the
week . A cold front will be gradually moving toward the region
through the day, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Some of the storms may be strong with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Showers will once again be possible on Wednesday but
Thursday and Friday are looking drier with near normal
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Anticipating scattered showers and
thunderstorms to affect the North Country today as a weak cold
front slowly approaches from the northwest. A very humid airmass
exists out ahead of this front with dewpoints well into the 60s
to around 70. Radar imagery already shows convection firing up
in western NY as the pre-frontal trough interacts with this
ample moisture, and this activity will slide eastward into the
region as the trough/front do likewise. While a few
thunderstorms will be possible in the St Lawrence
Valley/Adirondacks this morning, instability will be lacking a
bit here due to current cloud cover and the lack of daytime
heating. Instability will be maximized from the Champlain Valley
eastward as the pre-frontal trough will move through during
peak heating, especially central and southern Vermont where
cloud cover will be thinnest. SB CAPE values of 1000+ J/kg are
anticipated in these areas, and this will be more than enough to
allow storms to fire, particularly along any lingering outflow
boundaries from this morning's convection. The best shear will
exist across the north as a jet will skirt by along the
international border, so not quite collocated with the best
instability, but still anticipate storms will become organized
enough to produce some gusty winds, with locally damaging gusts
possible. PWATs of 2+ inches and warm cloud depths of 10-12 kft
indicate briefly heavy rainfall will be possible as well. The
latest Day 1 storm outlook from SPC has the entire North Country
under a Marginal Risk, as does WPC's excessive rainfall
outlook, so the above thinking seems reasonable. Otherwise, for
today, continued warm and humid but not as hot as yesterday with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Showers/storms will wane in coverage and strength after sunset as
heating is lost. It'll be another muggy night with lows remaining in
the mid 60s to most 70s. Showers will redevelop on Wednesday with a
shortwave moving through the southwest flow aloft. However, expect
the focus will be more south and east as this is where the best
instability will lie. Convection in our forecast area should be tied
more to the higher terrain. Lesser instability due to more cloud
cover and marginal lapse rates will limit severe potential. Clouds
will keep temperatures down a bit as well, with highs expected to be
a few degrees cooler than today's readings.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...Some lingering showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday night though most of the
precipitation will be done. There will be a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms again on Thursday, but mainly confined
to the higher terrain as upper level trough is still
influencing. Ridge of surface high pressure will build into the
area from west to east on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...Weather continues to look active over
the weekend after a pretty quiet day Friday. There will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, but
exactly which day depends on what model you look at. Have
continued with previous forecasters thinking of chance for
showers both days. Exactly what happens with the long wave
pattern is highly dependent on the system coming onshore along
the Pacific Northwest sometime on Friday. The location of the
developing cut-off low over the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic will
greatly influence whether we see cool cloudy conditions or some
clearing with a ridge building to the east of it. Overall,
temperatures will continue to be slightly above normal through
the period with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low
in the lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with the exception of KMPV. There may be some low clouds
and fog between 08z and 12z at this location that could result
in IFR to LIFR conditions. Otherwise...expected increasing
clouds after 10z for all areas...but ceilings will generally be
above 4000 feet. Scattered showers will also be possible with VFR
visibilities are expected. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will occur after 18z and this will be when we
could see MVFR to IFR conditions in any thunderstorms. Winds
will be from the south and southwest at speeds generally under
15 knots.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings
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