Expires:201507072000;;206849
FPUS51 KBTV 070738
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015


VTZ006-072000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HUMID
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201507071100;;214024
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    72  63  73 S14G20    30.01S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    57  55  93 CALM      30.12R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    62  57  83 CALM      30.07S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  56  86 MISG      30.07R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    58  57  95 CALM      30.11S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    72  64  75 S6        30.04F                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    64  55  72 SE8       30.07F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    62  59  90 CALM      30.10S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    72  64  77 S8        30.00S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      64  59  84 S5        30.07R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    69  65  86 CALM      30.07S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A SW12        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;208502
FXUS61 KBTV 070816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
1.6-1.8" WITH 70 TD IN THE MID ATLANTIC SPARKING SCT TSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW
TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED,
EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW
VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN
THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO
BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO
WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE
AT WORK.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO
ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL
A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY...

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED
WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US
LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN
MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO
THAT'S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE
THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT
1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS.

DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50".
KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS
SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS
10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL
RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY
WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR
FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS
LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE
TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH
19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS
DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND
AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.

18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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