Expires:201805192000;;185554
FPUS51 KBTV 190731
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018
VTZ006-192000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018
.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then rain showers this
afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance
of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with occasional showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:201805191100;;193011
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 50 38 63 SE9 30.33F
MONTPELIER FAIR 43 34 70 SE3 30.43R
MORRISVILLE FAIR 35 34 96 CALM 30.39S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 37 35 92 MISG 30.40S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 40 32 71 CALM 30.41S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 52 32 46 S5 30.35S
RUTLAND* FAIR 51 25 36 S10 30.36F
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 40 38 93 CALM 30.42S
HIGHGATE* FAIR 44 37 78 SE5 30.32F
NEWPORT* FAIR 44 33 66 CALM 30.38S
BENNINGTON FAIR 52 20 28 E7 30.34S
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 39 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 41 N/A N/A SE21 N/A WCI 32
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 50 45 81 S7 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 39 76 S15 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 41 76 S7 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;186027
FXUS61 KBTV 190748
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring widespread rain showers to the North
Country mainly this afternoon. Scattered showers and a slight
chance of thunder are expected tonight as temperatures warm
overnight. Sunday morning a frontal system will pass through
the region with showers ending and some clearing behind it for
Sunday afternoon with temperatures in the 60s to around 70.
High pressure quickly builds back in to start the work week
with above normal temperatures and dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 248 AM EDT Saturday...Clouds starting to increase this
morning ahead of a warm front. Expecting breezy south winds
associated with developing low level jet of 20 to 30 knots at
1000 feet. This jet will help to increase moisture with clouds
lowering and thickening during the late morning. Mainly light
rain showers should arrive between 10-noon south and noon-2pm
central and 2-4pm near the international border. Some downslope
shadowing is possible in the Champlain valley with developing
850mb southwest jet of 40 to 50 knots off the Adirondacks. Temps
warm into the 50s south to mid 60s north through midday, but
cool back into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon after the
rain arrives and wet bulb cooling takes place.
Rain will become more showery in nature Saturday night as the
best warm advection and overrunning lifts northeast of the area
by the evening hours. Some of the area, especially in northern
NY may get into the warm sector while east of the Greens its
less likely. South to southwest winds pick up in the Champlain
Valley westward with a low level jet aloft with gusts of 20-30
mph. Shower chances become less early tonight as the warm
sector aloft and dry slot moves in tonight there could be a
period during the night without much going on before a cold
front approaches the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday with an
increase in precip probabilities. Models continue showing some
CAPE to around 250 J/kg, mainly elevated, while the GFS is less.
The Showalter index is slightly negative and Ks in the 30s, so
a rumble of thunder is not out of the question and have slight
chance in the forecast but coverage is low. Simulated satellite
from the BTV WRF continues to show some embedded convective
cells in the warm sector on the edge of the warm front aloft and
the cold front closer to the St Lawrence Valley. The cold front
on our doorstep by 12z Sun with showers ahead and along the
front but clearing behind. The front will move steadily
southeast Sunday with a decreasing probability of precipitation
from northwest to southeast but should clear most of our area by
early afternoon. Timing will play a role in the instability
ahead of the front and indications are that some weak
instability will develop mainly southeast VT (near VSF) and
points south. Again MUCAPE only near 250 J/kg so not including
thunder for Sunday morning. Looking like about a half inch of
rain is expected with locally 0.75 in any heavier showers or
embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures Saturday night will be steady
or rising ranging from early evening lows the upper 40s east of
the Greens to mid to upper 50s in the St. Lawrence valley
rising through the 50s to around 60 by Sunday morning.
Gradual clearing is expected on Sunday afternoon behind the
front with NW winds of 10 to 20 kts and high temperatures close
to normal with readings in the mid 60s mountains to lower 70s in
the lower Champlain and CT valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...Pretty quiet 24 or so hour period.
Should be mostly clear Sunday night in the wake of the front.
Overnight low temperatures will be seasonable for this time of
year. Monday the region will still be under dry northwest flow.
With the strong late May sunshine heating the ground, that
should result in a super-adiabatic lapse rate near the surface
and excellent boundary layer mixing. Thus I leaned more toward
the warmest guidance I could find. We should top out in the mid
to upper 70s in most areas, with a spot 80F not out of the
question either. Given the boundary layer mixing, did opt to
lower the dewpoints given the progged dry air aloft. Should see
afternoon relative humidities in the lower 20s% range, so it
will be something for the fire community to monitor. Monday
night should be similar to Sunday night -- lots of clear skies
and light winds. Lows will range from the 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...00z guidance suite in "okay"
agreement, and at the very least it doesn't appear that any
significant storms will affect the area for the period. Just a
couple of minor systems. The model blend guidance appeared
fairly reasonable, and only made a few tweaks from that. My
commentary, if you wish to read it, for each of the days
follows...
Tuesday: a weak shortwave combined with southwest flow will
result in an increase in clouds and the potential for showers,
especially later in the day and into Tuesday night. As the
previous forecaster noted, guidance hints at a little bit of
instability, mainly elevated Tuesday night. So although a
thunderstorm can't be ruled out, given any strong signals, I
have opted to keep mention out of the forecast at this point.
With 925mb temperatures on the rather warm side (15-18C), we
should again be well above normal for temperatures, with highs
in the 70s. Could make a run at 80F in northern areas where the
clouds will hold off til later in the day. Despite the talk of
showers, the PoPs aren't all that high - just 25-35% late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. That means most of the time for most
of us it will be rainfree. The clouds Tuesday night will also
keep lows well above normal (mainly 50s).
Wednesday: as the shortwave passes by early in the day, an
associated weak surface low will pass by to our north. As that
happens, winds switch to the northwest and some cooler air comes
in. GFS has a fairly noticeable cold front, while the Euro is
weaker and keeps most of the cooler air to the north. Played
middle of the road for temperatures at this point with highs
upper 60s to lower 70s. Not a lot of dynamics or instability
around, so although there could be a few showers with the front,
not expecting any t-storms. Kept the PoPs generally in the
25-30% range.
Thursday: GFS and ECMWF both offer solutions which suggest a
mostly sunny and dry day with northwest flow aloft and a ridge
of high pressure at the surface. Big differences in
temperatures. The cooler GFS has 925mb temperatures of 8-10C
(which equate to highs in the 60s), while the EC is already
pushing away the slight bit of cool air from Wednesday and has
925mb temperatures in the 16-18C range (which equates to highs
well into the 70s if not lower 80s). However the EC solution is
a fairly big change from it's previous runs which were
considerably cooler. So I stuck with the model blend which at
this point still skews toward the "cooler" solution, which is
still near normal. Obviously a fairly large forecast error bar
exists.
Friday: still northwest flow aloft and looks mostly dry. Now
it's the 00z GFS that is warmest (925mb temps 16-18C) vs the EC
which cools slightly to 14-16C at 925mb. In either case, it's
looking like temperatures in the 70s is a good bet, though like
Thursday, there is a wide error bar on the forecast, and it
could be more summer like as we end the week and transition into
the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z SUNDAY...VFR conditions are expected this morning
then trend MVFR this evening with LLWS possible late tonight.
A warm front will approach tonight preceded by light rain
showers that will move north into the area 15-19z continuing
through 23-01z. Flight conditions will trend toward MVFR vsby
and cigs as the rain showers taper off. Keeping a chance of
showers through 06z with the warm front aloft. There is a slight
chance of thunder with instability aloft, but not enough to
include in the TAFs.
Winds will be light except for a SE drainage wind at RUT through
the morning. Expected S-SE winds around 6-8 kt at all TAF sites
by morning. Winds will increase out of the S around 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt or so from 14-18z. Gusts should be
limited after 18z during the rain, however the exception may be
RUT with may maintain gusty SE winds through 00z. Areas of LLWS
and turbulence area expected around 2000 ft but lowering to 1000
ft with the warm front aloft with a strong 35-50 kt SW jet just
above the surface. Showers will move back in late as a cold
front approaches Sunday morning.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Sisson
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