Expires:202009102000;;812101
FPUS51 KBTV 101037
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020
VTZ006-102000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
635 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. A chance of
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming
west this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers until midnight. Lows in
the upper 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
30 percent.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in
the lower 60s. North winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Light and variable
winds.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY...Showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 40.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 40.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
$$
Expires:202009101100;;811874
ASUS41 KBTV 101030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-101100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FOG 61 59 93 S5 30.22F VSB 1/2
MONTPELIER FOG 57 57 100 CALM 30.28F VSB 1/2
MORRISVILLE FOG 61 60 97 S3 30.24S VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 59 58 96 MISG 30.22F
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 63 62 97 SE3 30.27S
RUTLAND* FOG 61 61 100 SE3 30.27S VSB 3/4
SPRINGFIELD FOG 63 62 97 CALM 30.28R VSB 1/2
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 61 58 90 SW3 30.20F FOG
NEWPORT* FAIR 59 55 88 SW5 30.24S FOG
BENNINGTON CLEAR 58 56 93 CALM 30.27S
ISLAND POND* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 52 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 64 N/A N/A SW26 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A N/A N/A N/A SE12 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A N/A N/A N/A S16 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 61 61 100 S7 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;802171
FXUS61 KBTV 100652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front, which has remained atop northern counties
over the past two days, will finally push south of the area this
afternoon and evening with a few showers. Behind the front,
seasonably cool and dry weather are expected for Friday into
Saturday. A more pronounced threat of showers along with
blustery winds arrives on Sunday, after which dry and seasonable
weather returns for the start of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Thursday...A pesky stationary front, which has
remained draped across northern counties over the past 48 hours
will finally get a push south today in response to northern
stream upper troughing passing off to our north. Patchy low
stratus and fog will slowly lift through late morning in all
areas outside the northern SLV leading to a short window of
partly to mostly sunny skies, especially across central/southern
counties. In these areas high temperatures will once again top
out in the lower to mid 80s, while across far northern counties
temperatures will remain cooler in the mid 60s/lower 70s with
proximity to the front and variable cloud cover. As the front
shifts southward through the afternoon/early evening hours
clouds will fill back into all areas with lower-end chances for
scattered showers, mainly from the Adirondacks east through VT.
As mentioned yesterday, forcing is weak along the boundary, so
showers will be driven mainly by low level moisture
pooling/convergence. An isolated storm will also be possible,
but should be the exception rather than the rule given weak mid
level lapse rates and evidence of a capping inversion near 700
mb.
By tonight the front clears well south with light to modest
northerly winds and clouds giving way to partial to full clearing in
most spots other than northern higher terrain by sunrise on
Saturday. Low temperatures will defintely herald the arrival of
autumn with values ranging through the 40s to around 50, slightly
milder near Lake Champlain (50s).
Friday begins a two day stretch of outstanding weather as broad
surface high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Skies will
trend mostly sunny in all areas by late morning under light to
moderate northerly flow as high temperatures top out in the 60s to
locally around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure will continue to
build across the North Country Friday night and will shift
eastward and out of the region Saturday night. Looking at model
soundings for the Friday night and Saturday timeframe, it looks
like it'll be difficult buy a cloud given the amount of dry air
and subsidence in place across the region. With decreasing cloud
cover Friday night and light winds underneath the building
surface high, temperatures are expected to tank. Overnight lows
will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s with the coldest
temperatures expected across the northern Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont. Given these temperatures and light winds,
we could see patchy frost across the aforementioned locations.
Any frost development will likely be confined to the colder
hollows and doesn't appear to be widespread at this time. Cloud
cover will begin to increase Saturday afternoon as our flow
aloft shifts from the northwest to the southwest well ahead of
an approaching frontal boundary. This return flow will allow
temperatures on Saturday to be noticeably warmer than those seen
on Friday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Thursday...An approaching cold front on Sunday
will yield widespread showers across the North Country for a
good portion of the day. Models continue to show an potent
shortwave ejecting across the region Sunday afternoon in line
with the cold front. Good surface convergence and shear should
help to maximize rainfall rates as PWATs increase above 1.5"
Sunday morning. There will be a glaring lack of instability on
Sunday from the abundant cloud cover and timing of rainfall
ahead of the cold front isn't ideal. This will likely inhibit
thunderstorm potential and any mention of thunderstorms was
removed from this forecast package. Nevertheless, it looks like
a good third to two-thirds of an inch of rainfall should be
fairly widespread with localized amounts up to an inch possible.
In addition to the rainfall on Sunday, gusty southerly winds
continue to look more and more likely. Strong gradient flow
develops between the departing high pressure system that was
over us Friday and Saturday and the approaching cold front. The
orientation of the pressure gradient is ideal for bringing these
gusty winds up through the Champlain Valley. Overall it still
looks like 20-30 mph winds will be possible for much of the
Champlain Valley with gusts of 40-45 mph over the Lake. These
gusty winds will develop late Sunday morning and will abate
around 7 or 8 PM with rapidly decreasing winds expected through
the overnight hours into Monday.
Most of the showers activity will exit the region by Monday morning
but a few additional showers will be possible through the first half
of the day as the upper level trough axis swings through the region.
High pressure will be quick to build back across the North Country
Monday night into Tuesday morning with the high cresting across the
region Tuesday morning. Good radiational cooling as skies clear and
light winds develop under the high pressure system should allow
temperatures to tank Monday night and again Tuesday night. Lows in
the mid 30s to mid 40s will once again be seen with patchy frost
possible across northeastern Vermont and the northern Adirondacks. A
warming trend will begin on Wednesday as we begin to see a western
extension of the Bermuda high begin to move across the east coast.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Stationary front currently draped along
the intl border and south through the Champlain Valley, will
lift slightly north this morning, before pushing bodily south
through the area this afternoon/evening. Cigs quite challenging,
but overall trends suggest widespread MVFR/IFR through 12/13Z,
lifting briefly to VFR/MVFR by late morning/early afternoon
before lowering back to mainly MVFR after 18-21Z as boundary
slides south. Threat of showers along front is rather marginal,
but VCSH will be maintained at mainly VT terminals this
afternoon for a short 2-4 hour window. Winds variable 2-6 kt
through 16Z, dependent on terminal, then trending largely
north/northwest from 6-10 kts thereafter as front pushes south.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...JMG
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