Expires:201612282100;;587322
FPUS51 KBTV 280852
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EST WED DEC 28 2016


VTZ006-282100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
349 AM EST WED DEC 28 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201612281200;;594147
ASUS41 KBTV 281130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED DEC 28 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    33  24  69 NW10      29.93R WCI  25          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    30  22  72 NW9       29.91R WCI  22          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    31  22  69 NW7       29.91R WCI  24          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  23  66 MISG      29.87R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  29  24  84 SW7       29.88R WCI  22          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    30  24  79 CALM      29.94R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    31  24  75 W13G21    29.92R WCI  21          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    33  20  58 NW6       29.92R WCI  28          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    30  26  86 W3        29.93R                  
NEWPORT*       FLURRIES  29  24  81 W8        29.89R WCI  21          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    31  25  78 W6        29.94R WCI  25          
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A W3          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  28  86 NW14        N/A  WCI  22          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  28  80 W15         N/A  WCI  24          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  25  64 W17         N/A  WCI  25          

$$


Expires:No;;593876
FXUS61 KBTV 281120
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
620 AM EST Wed Dec 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Variable clouds along with a few morning flurries or snow 
showers are expected today as temperatures settle back to more 
typical late December values. A rapidly deepening coastal storm 
will track across eastern New England later tomorrow into Friday
with significant snowfall expected across eastern Vermont 
counties where Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect. Behind 
this system a brief return to quieter weather is expected on 
Saturday before more snow showers arrive for Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM EST Wednesday...Adjusted cloud coverage upward 
through the morning hours based off higher coverage than prior 
indications. This would suggest most of the day will end up 
cloudy or mostly cloudy for most locales. Only other change was 
to tweak hourly trends in temperatures/dewpoints across the area
through late morning based off latest observational/LAMP 
guidance trends. Rest of forecast remains in good shape. Have a 
great day.

Prior discussion...
A weak cold front and accompanying upper trough are in the 
process of slipping across the area as of early morning. 
Scattered snow shower activity, well depicted by higher- 
resolution WRF/HRRR guidance is occurring along the surface 
boundary and expect at least a chance of a light dusting to 
perhaps an inch in favored higher elevation locales through mid-
morning as the activity slides south and wanes. With passage of
the boundary flow will veer light northwesterly in the 5 to 10 
knot range, though low level drying will be tough to come by 
with ample mid-level moisture remaining trapped beneath a 
substantial inversion near 850 mb. Thus the prior idea of 
variably cloudy skies will be maintained for most of the area 
today. Temperatures will generally hold steady in the mid 20s to
lower 30s as modest cold thermal advection is offset by diurnal
heating.

By tonight, brief shortwave ridging at the surface and aloft 
skirts across the area with dry conditions expected. There could
be some partial clearing here and there through the evening 
hours, but thickening higher overcast will be quick to return 
later tonight in advance of a more robust system progged to 
affect the area Thursday into Friday. Maintained prior trends of
staying on the milder side of temperature guidance (15 to 25F) 
given variable clouds and the cold-bias exhibited in much of the
model output over the past week or so. Winds light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Wednesday...Short term forecast will feature 
most active time period. Winter storm watch has been upgraded to
a warning from the spine of the Greens eastward, while most of 
the rest of our area will have an advisory. On Thursday surface 
trough will cross our forecast area spreading snow from west to 
east across the area. Potent short wave trough moves eastward 
through the Ohio river valley, forming a low pressure system off
the coast of Long Island. Model consensus depicts this low 
tracking Northeastward into Southeastern New England by 21z Thu.
The low will rapidly deepen as it continues to lift 
Northeastward into Southern Maine by 03z Friday and finally 
North of Maine by 15z Friday. Models continue to depict a 
compact system with bulk of heavy snow remaining close to low 
center. At the start of the cyclogenesis Southeasterly winds 
will be in place and think we'll see some shadowing in the 
Champlain Valley. Continues to look like mesoband will set up 
somewhere in NH where the heaviest snows will fall. Uncertainty 
with snowfall forecast as well as variability of totals across 
our area. A slight jog west or east with the track of the low 
will make a big difference in our CWA. As the low moves 
Northeastward our forecast area will be in favorable 
Northwesterly flow upslope snow showers with some backside bonus
for our Northwest facing slopes of the Greens especially 
continuing through Friday. At this point looks like 7 to 14 
inches of snow from the spine of the greens Eastward with 2 to 7
inches across the rest of our CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...Wrap around upslope snow showers 
will be shutting down Friday night. Early Saturday will feature 
brief surface ridging over the area before next smaller and 
weaker system approaches from the Great Lakes region. Clipper 
low passes just North of our forecast area Saturday night into 
early Sunday. Then another ridge of surface high pressure builds
for later Sunday through early Monday. More uncertainty with 
the forecast for Monday onward with GFS and ECMWF displaying 
some notable timing differences. Similarities between the two 
models though are that a low pressure system will pass West of 
our forecast area through the Great Lakes. Unsettled weather is 
expected for the beginning of the week with some mixed 
precipitation and rain. Still lots of uncertainty with the 
timing, have stuck close to Super Blend. Above normal 
temperature trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
Through 12Z Thursday...mix of BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR ceilings this 
morning as scattered snow showers/flurries wane with passage of 
weak cold front. Highest confidence in MVFR cigs/brief vsby 
reductions to occur at KMPV and KSLK through 15Z time frame. 
Conds largely trend VFR by this afternoon under light/modest 
northwesterly flow from 5-10 knots.

By this evening skies to trend SCT VFR in most areas under 
light and variable flow. Broad increase in BKN/OVC mainly VFR 
cigs to return to the area later tonight.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...trending IFR/LIFR in 
widespread light to moderate snows as coastal low pressure
develops across southeast New England.

00Z Friday through 18Z Friday...widespread moderate to locally
heavy snows and IFR/LIFR conditions likely. Highest confidence
on heavier snows across eastern VT and KMPV terminal. Winds will
trend gusty west/northwest over time as intensifying low
pressure tracks northeast into Maine.

18Z Friday through 12Z Saturday...gradual improvement to VFR
through the period as strong low pressure exits into the
Canadian Maritimes and light snows/snow showers wane/end. Gusty
northwesterly flow abates.

12Z Saturday onward...trend back toward MVFR/IFR in periods of
light snow/snow showers as clipper energy tracks across southern
Ontario/Quebec.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday 
     for VTZ001-002-005-009.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday 
     for VTZ003-004-006>008-010>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday 
     for NYZ028>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG

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