Expires:202103112100;;801869
FPUS51 KBTV 111108
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
605 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
VTZ018-112100-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
605 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Very windy with highs in the upper 50s. South winds 20 to 25 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph, becoming southwest 25 to 35 mph with
gusts up to 55 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Very windy with lows in
the upper 30s. Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to
60 mph, diminishing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph after
midnight.
.FRIDAY...Sunny, breezy with highs in the mid 40s. West winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with lows around 18. West
winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow
40 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny and very windy. Highs around 30.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 5 to 10 above.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny and brisk. Highs around 20.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.
$$
Expires:202103111200;;802964
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU MAR 11 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 45 34 65 S16G25 30.13F
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 39 30 70 S7 30.20F
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 34 29 82 CALM 30.14F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 34 28 79 MISG 30.18F
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 37 30 77 E3 30.20S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 40 32 72 S6 30.19F
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 33 30 88 E3 30.23S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 28 25 88 CALM 30.26F
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 46 32 57 S13G20 30.08F
NEWPORT* FAIR 40 28 63 S8 30.14F
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 37 30 75 SE3 30.24R
ISLAND POND* N/A 41 N/A N/A SW10 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 34 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 43 N/A N/A SW32 N/A WCI 32
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 41 36 81 S30 N/A WCI 30
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 43 37 81 S15 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;802527
FXUS61 KBTV 111116
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of warm temperatures will be seen across the North
Country with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Don't get used to these warmer temperatures just yet as we will have
a series of cold front slide through the region on Friday which will
bring a few rain showers followed by a return of below normal
temperatures through Monday. Temperatures will moderate back towards
seasonal temperatures by Wednesday with a warming trend expected for
the second half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 611 AM EST Thursday...Very mild conditions continue this
morning across the North Country. The current temps this morning
are actually warmer than the normal high for this time of the
year. This will set the stage for unseasonably warm temperatures
this afternoon with records across the region at stake. The
forecast this morning remains in good shape and no updates were
needed at this time.
Previous Discussion...A combination of cloud cover, warm air
advection and winds in the 10- 25 mph range have kept temperatures
quite mild overnight. Readings as of 3 AM showed temps generally in
the upper 30s to mid 40s with a few locations still hanging around
50 degrees in the St. Lawrence Valley. Little, if any, additional
cooling is expected through the remainder of the overnight hours
with temperatures expected to warm nicely even under a thick blanket
of cloud cover this afternoon. The model consensus continues to
trend warmer with each subsequent model run so we have continued to
slowly trend our temperatures upwards. Nevertheless, we expect
temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s with the
possibility of some record high temperatures being set this
afternoon. Check out the climate section below to see what
temperatures may be broken this afternoon.
Gusty winds will likely materialize once again with a strong low
level jet setting up overhead and decent mixing given the warming
temperatures. Most places can expect winds through Thursday night to
continue to be in the 15 to 25 mph range with stronger gust along
and near Lake Champlain. Dewpoints throughout the day will warm into
the upper 30s to lower 40s which will help increase snowmelt across
the region as studies have shown condensation caused by above
freezing dewpoints is the most efficient way to melt snow;
especially when coupled with winds. We will continue to monitor
rivers through the day for any ice movement or ice jams that may
develop as snowmelt enters area waterways.
Friday is looking to be a good bit cooler as we see two distinct
frontal boundaries which will open us back up to arctic air by
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be warmest during the morning
hours and will hold steady through the early afternoon before
dropping during the afternoon and evening hours. During this time,
we could see some scattered rain showers develop ahead and along the
frontal boundary but models continue to show lackluster QPF amounts
with virtually nothing across Vermont to maybe a tenth or two of
rainfall across northern New York.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 312 AM EST Thursday...A sharp upper trough and associated
cyclonic vorticity advection over our region should promote snow
showers Friday night. With marginal instability and a weak near
surface boundary, a few snow showers could be briefly heavy, mainly
over the northern tier of Vermont. Near surface convergence is not
high, and snow showers should be on a weakening trend as they shift
south and diurnal instability wanes. This feature will quickly scoot
east. Anticipate dry weather by Saturday morning with increasing
winds as pressure gradients tighten. As the day progresses, these
tight pressure gradients will slacken and winds should shift out of
the west- southwest. Surface high pressure will build southwest of
our area. This will produce a perfectly normal afternoon of highs in
the 30s and mostly clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 312 AM EST Thursday...Saturday night and into Sunday, another
shortwave trough will drop southeastwards over the North Country.
This one appears less potent than Friday night's shortwave trough. A
few snow showers will be possible, mainly across the higher
elevations. Behind this will be a polar high that will advect an
unseasonably cold air mass into our forecast area with temperatures
running 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The good news is that
temperatures moderate towards seasonal norms relatively quickly.
Heading into the mid-week, model solutions diverge with relation to
a cut-off low over the US Rockies. How upper lows open up and
reassimilate into the larger scale flow within a split flow regime
is typically a difficult pattern for models to forecast. For now,
given our ongoing precipitation deficits, have leaned against higher
PoPs, but the possibility for a system either next Wednesday or next
Thursday is out there.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across
the region this morning and will likely continue to do so
through much of the day. A brief period of VCSH/-SHRA and MVFR
ceilings will be seen at KMSS and KSLK this afternoon but
overall impacts from any rain showers won't have any noticeable
impacts other than some localized 1500-2500 ft ceilings. Winds
will remain the main hazard over the next 24 hours with gusty
winds and wind shear expected. KBTV has been seeing winds gust
near 30 knots this morning and this trend is likely to continue
through much of the day given the channeled southerly flow.
Elsewhere, winds of 15 knots or less will be seen through the
day. Wind shear will remain a hazard for the entire TAF period
with winds at 1500-2000 ft ranging between 35 and 55 knots with
the strongest jet situated across northern New York. Increased
mechanical turbulence is expected, especially as the strongest
core of the upper level jet moves through the region this
evening.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Below are forecast highs for March 11th and the record below.
KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK
61 59 60 59 59
56|1977 61|1977 60|1985 57|1977 60|1977
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...Team BTV
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