Expires:202301061900;;191189
FPUS51 KBTV 061119
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
615 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023
VTZ018-061900-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
615 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023
.TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Snow accumulation
up to 1 inch possible. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...A slight chance of rain showers until midnight. Mostly
cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Snow accumulation up to
1 inch possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds,
becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 30. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 16. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. West winds around
10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs
in the mid 30s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower
20s. Lows around 10 above.
$$
Expires:202301061200;;191570
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 34 33 96 SE6 29.95S WCI 29
MONTPELIER FLURRIES 36 30 79 S3 29.98R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 34 32 92 S5 29.95S WCI 30
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 33 32 96 MISG 29.95S
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 32 32 100 CALM 29.96S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 34 34 100 CALM 29.95S FOG
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 36 34 92 SE5 29.95R
SPRINGFIELD LGT SNOW 33 32 96 CALM 29.98S FOG
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 32 32 99 CALM 29.96R FOG
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 34 33 95 S6 29.96R WCI 29
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 38 32 79 CALM 29.94S
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 32 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 36 34 93 S2 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 37 36 93 S10 N/A WCI 30
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 36 36 100 SE1 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;184765
FXUS61 KBTV 060900
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 AM EST Fri Jan 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light snow are expected today into tonight, especially
in higher terrain as temperatures remain near or above
freezing. Seasonably colder air returns tomorrow as skies begin
to clear by Sunday when skies will be mainly sunny. Continued
mainly dry and quiet conditions will continue for much of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...Messy weather pattern today with the
most significant weather being a close shave of steady snow
across the southern Greens and marginally cold temperatures for
snow in adjacent valleys. Upper air analysis shows the base of
an sharp upper level trough is over Lake Erie early this
morning. As it translates eastward, positive vorticity advection
and southwesterly flow aloft will help an area of precipitation
currently over southeastern New York intensify a bit as it
lifts northeastward. The latest model guidance has trended just
a touch colder in the low levels that would allow for lower snow
levels, but have as a compromise indicated a rain/snow mix in a
broad area below 1000 feet elevation with mainly snow above
that elevation. Temperatures currently in lower elevations in
south central Vermont are largely in the mid 30s with dew points
also above freezing, and with the absence of any temperature
advection, will need to see sufficiently heavy precipitation
rates to get accumulating snow today. Therefore, most valley
locations have a snowfall forecast of a trace to 0.8", with
higher elevations generally around 2". During the afternoon
hours this precipitation should quickly shift to our east. Some
of the light snow could lift into much of eastern Vermont before
exiting. Therefore, 0.5" to 1" of snow is also forecast for
much of the eastern counties of the state; precipitation chances
do dwindle moving northward from Windsor County, so this
snowfall is not a sure bet. Behind this area of snow, scattered
areas of snow showers/lower elevation rain may move through much
of the region as the main upper level centered over southern
Canada drags the trough axis through. Combination of height
falls and plentiful moisture in place will support at least a
low chance of precipitation, especially over our northern zones
during the afternoon/evening.
Elsewhere, a combination of stale, moist air and partial
clearing has supported patchy fog this morning in portions of
northern New York and western Vermont. With temperatures below
freezing in some areas, freezing fog will be possible through
mid-morning before the inversion mixes out. Skies will tend to
remain cloudy through the day even after the low clouds scatter
out until cold air advection on westerly flow arrives finally
tonight. The passage of the aforementioned trough axis will
bring about some upslope snow showers. The northern Green
Mountains, especially Jay Peak given a predominately westerly
rather than northwesterly flow, should see a much-desired
snowfall tonight before precipitation tapers off given drying
at the 700 millibar level by tomorrow morning. As polar high
pressure builds southeastward and flow aloft becomes more
northwesterly during the day, stronger advection will develop
with modest northwest winds keeping temperatures from rising
much during the day. Highs will therefore be warmest across
southern areas where mid 30s will be reached, with temperatures
staying in the mid to upper 20s in most of northern New York and
northern Vermont. This push of northwest winds will allow for
gradual clearing in valley locations, as well, after a long
period of mainly cloudy weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 AM EST Friday...A period of near normal temps are
expected acrs the fa, as modest llvl caa continues on northwest
850mb flow of 20 to 25 knots. The combination of weak upslope
flow and favorable 850 to 500mb moisture quickly departing our
cwa, have tapered off chc pops in the mtns by 03z on Sat night.
Progged 925mb temps drop into the -11C to -13C overnight, while
sfc analysis places 1031mb high pres to our west. This scenario
may result in some weak gradient flow and limited snow pack wl
prevent temps from completely bottoming out. However, plenty
cold enough to make snow at least with lows in the teens to near
20F by Lake Champlain. A very quiet Sunday is in store with
temps climbing back into the mid 20s to near 30F acrs our fa.
Given large dry layer btwn 850 and 500mb with rh values <30%,
expecting to see the sun in many locations on Sunday. Sunday
night expect temps to drop quickly in the evening hours with
clear skies and light winds, however as mid lvl moisture
increases some clouds wl impact southern zones, while sfc winds
shift to the south/southwest aft 06z Monday. Lows range from mid
teens to l/m 20s CPV.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 232 AM EST Friday...A very quiet period of wx anticipated
acrs the fa as large scale synoptic flow wl become zonal by
early next week, before shifting to more of a split flow regime
by mid/late week. Temps rebound quickly on Monday/Tuesday to
above normal values, supported by progged 925mb temperatures in
the -2C to -4C range. These thermal profiles support highs mid
30s to lower 40s on Monday/Tues. Some questions on potential
cold front and associated snow showers on Tues aft acrs northern
NY into VT. GFS is the most aggressive with showing potent 5h
s/w energy, good llvl convergence, and tight thermal gradient
with boundary, supporting the idea of at least some snow
showers. Meanwhile, GEM/ECMWF are much less aggressive with
feature and would support a generally dry fcst. Have placed
schc/chc (15 to 30%) pops for northern NY mtns into the northern
Greens, but when in snow drought probably best to just keep it
out. As northern stream jet digs south for Weds into Thurs,
cooler air is anticipated acrs our cwa. The magnitude of trof
and position of cold high pres is still uncertain attm, so have
kept temps close to NBM. Trends have been for the coldest core
of air to stay north of our cwa, while just giving us a glancing
blow of a brief period of below normal temps for mid/late week.
This scenario seems reasonable, given the large scale synoptic
pattern and potential for much of the CONUS to be dominated by a
warm Pacific type airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Light winds and a mix of flight
categories will continue through the TAF period. Precipitation
aside from mist/drizzle will mainly impact RUT, most likely in
the 14Z to 18Z period as a wave of widespread precipitation
extends into southern Vermont. It will mainly be in the form of
snow but possibly a mix of rain and snow at times. Some snow
will also impact MPV during this time but less confident on
extent and duration there, with rain more likely at BTV and PBG
if any precipitation occurs. Following the passage of this
system, ceilings across the area will tend to come back down
with IFR conditions in some areas including at MSS and EFK,
before gradually improving after 00Z.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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