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December 2004, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 6 Dec 2004 06:50:02 -0500
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text/plain
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Expires:200412070015;;421920
FPUS51 KBTV 060919
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EST MON DEC 6 2004


VTZ006-008-010-016-017-062415-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...STOWE...
UNDERHILL
415 AM EST MON DEC 6 2004

.TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 20. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE. LOWS 15 TO 20. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN LATE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK. RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. BRISK. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 061052 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
545 AM EST MON DEC 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER FA EARLY THIS AM. TEMPS ON CHILLY SIDE
WITH COLDEST READINGS IN NE KINGDOM OF VT WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW
ZERO. TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF OR BEGUN TO RISE A BIT ACRS REST OF FA
WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLDNSS. AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHRTWV APRCHS FROM GRTLKS...EXPECT CLDS TO
THICKEN UP ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
PM AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN DVLPS ACRS FA. MSTR WITH THIS INITIAL
DISTURBANCE IS LIMITED. MAX LIFT IS ACRS NRN NY. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS AND SOME MINOR ACCUM FOR NRN NEW YORK ZONES AS WELL AS
SC VT. INITIAL SHRTWV LIFTS NORTH OF RGN TONITE. ISEN LIFT CONTINUES
HOWEVER..SO EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW THRU 06Z. AFT 06Z THERE IS THE RISK OF SOME FRZG DRZL AS
SOMEWHAT MILDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS TDY/TON. ETA QPF LOOKS OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH BLEND OF ETA/GFS QPF...WITH RESULT BEING
SNOW TOTALS MOST AREAS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

ON TUESDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV LIFTS NORTHEAST ACRS THE GRTLKS
ALG WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW WHICH IS FCSTD TO MOVE INTO ERN GRTLKS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WDSPRD AND HEAVIER BY
TUESDAY PM AS LIFT MAXIMIZES DURING 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...AND PTYPE WILL STILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY NE VT. HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING REGARDING PTYPE FOR TUES. EXPECT PCPN EARLY TUES TO BE
MAINLY SNOW...THEN BECOMING MIXED DURING MORNING HRS...AND CHANGING
TO RAIN OR FRZG RAIN DURING PM AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FIRST
ALOFT...AND THEN AT SFC. EXCEPTION WILL BE NE VT WHERE FROZEN PCPN
MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NITE. BELIEVE THIS MAY LEAD INTO AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AMTS OR COMINATION OF SNOW/ICE...ALTHO THE AMT OF
ICING SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT MOST AREAS AS DURATION OF FRZG RAIN
SHUD BE LIMITED. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STG SOUTHEAST
WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN...FOR TUES PM/EVEN.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TO RAIN SHWRS TUES NITE. TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
THRU 30S. RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SCT SNOW SHWRS WED AS LOW DEPARTS
AND FA WILL BE UNDER CAA.
&&

.LONG TERM (WED NITE ONWARD)...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO GRIDS OR ZONES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SAT MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. TEMP PROFIELS
SUGGEST ITS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MIXED PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH 20Z AS MID TO HIGH LVL CIGS
BTWN 100-200K FT ADVANCE NE THROUGH COURSE OF DAY UNDER LIGHT WIND
REGIME. AFTER 20Z CIGS/VIS LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR W/SCT IFR IN -SN.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG SLV WHERE NE GRADIENT OF
10-15KT POSSIBLE INVOF OF KMSS. PRECIP SHOULD THEN BEGIN SLOW
TRANSITION FROM -SN TO -FZRAPL AFTER 05Z FROM SW TO NE ACROSS AREA.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.....RJS
AVIATION...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 060347 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...
TRENDS IN GOING FORECAST LOOK REAL GOOD AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES TONIGHT.  WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR BUT
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING TOWARD FORECAST LEVELS AS WELL.  QUICK LOOK AT SOME NEW
00Z DATA SUGGESTS GOING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOKS GOOD.  SO IDEA OF SNOW AT THE
ONSET...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN GOING TO
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS REAL GOOD.  AGAIN...NO UPDATES
NEEDED TONIGHT.

EVENSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 420 PM...
.SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE NGT)...
SKIES HAV CLRD ACRS FA WHICH WL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDEST NGT OF THE
SEASON AS WINDS DIMINSIH WITH SFC HI BUILDING OVR RGN.  HIGH CLDS
AHD OF NEXT WEAK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO OVRSPRD RGN AFT MIDNGT BUT
SHOULD HAV MINIMAL IMPACT IN TEMPS.  EXPECT SUBZERO MINS IN
ADRNDCKS/NE VT AND SINGLE NUMBERS ELSW.

FAST MOVING SHRTWV LIFTS NE ACRS RGN DURG MON.  AT THE SAME TIME SFC
HI BEGINS TO RETREAT NWD WITH OVERRUNNING PATTERN DVLPG FM S TO N
DURG AFTN.  MSTR IS LIMITED SO ONLY CHC POPS DURG AFTN.  MAX ACCUM
ARND 1" ACRS SRN ST LAW VLY AND ADRNDCKS WHERE STRONGEST ISEN LIFT.
KEPT NE VT DRY WHICH IS FURTHEST REMOVED FROM BEST ISEN LIFT.  MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN LOW/MID 20S.

CONTD ISEN LIFT SHOULD ALLOW SOME LGT SNOW TO CONT SPREAD NWD ACRS
FA MON NGT.  MAX POPS ACRS SRN/WRN ZONES WHERE AN ADDITL 1" ACCUM
PSBL.

ON TUE...STG SHRTWV LIFTS NE FROM MS VLY TO ERN LKS WHILE ASSOCD
DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVS NE TO ERN LKS BY 00Z WED.  LGT PCPN EXPECTED
DURG THE MORNING WITH MORE SGFNT PCPN DURG AFTN AS STG QG LIFT MOVS
ACRS RGN WITH QPF 0.25-0.5".  PTYPE PROBLEMATIC AS TEMPS WRMG ALF.
THICKNESS PROFILES SHOW DEEP COLD AIR IN PLC FOR MSTLY SNOW TO START
TUE MORNING BUT PCPN GRDLY CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN...THEN RAIN
DURING THE AFTN...XCP NE VT WHERE MOSTLY SNW/SLEET AS THICKNESS
PROFILES SHOW DEEPER COLD AIR.  ACRS REST OF FA...LOW LVL COLD AIR
SLOW TO DEPART SO POCKETS OF FZRA LIKELY IN THE AFTN.  THOUGHT ABT
ISSUING GENERIC SPS BUT THINK THIS WL BE AN ADVSY EVENT SO WL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.

LOW LVL TEMPS WL CONT TO WRM TUE NGT SO MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED BUT
POCKETS OF FZRA PSBL NE VT WHERE STUBBORN LOW LVL COLD AIR SLOW TO
DEPART. MAX POPS WL BE TUE EVNG THEN DECRG OVRNGT TUE AS BEST
FORCING LIFT NWD.
&&

.LONG TERM (WED ONWARD)...
THE GOING FCST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD IN THIS TIME-FRAME. STORM SYS TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON WED...AS AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE
FA. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON THU. ANOTHER STORM SYS LOOKS TO
MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE FA ON FRI AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE FA ON
SAT. THIS COULD CHANGE THOUGH. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA ON NEXT
SUN. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING -SHSN ACRS MUCH OF THE
FA ON WED...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED ON WED NITE THRU THU NITE AND SAT
NITE AND SUN. ANY SHRASN ACRS THE FA ON FRI TO CHANGE TO SHSN FOR
FRI NITE AND SAT. FEW TWEAKS TO OUR GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TO TRY AND MESH A LIL BETTER WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS.
&&

.AVIATION...
W-NW SFC WINDS TO DIE OFF ACRS THE FA AS HI PRESS BUILDS IN TONITE.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULDN/T LAST LONG.
SOME HIR CLDS MAY MOVE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW EARLY ON
MON...OTRW CAVU.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MURRAY






FXUS61 KBTV 052121 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE NGT)...
SKIES HAV CLRD ACRS FA WHICH WL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDEST NGT OF THE
SEASON AS WINDS DIMINSIH WITH SFC HI BUILDING OVR RGN.  HIGH CLDS
AHD OF NEXT WEAK SHRTWV WL BEGIN TO OVRSPRD RGN AFT MIDNGT BUT
SHOULD HAV MINIMAL IMPACT IN TEMPS.  EXPECT SUBZERO MINS IN
ADRNDCKS/NE VT AND SINGLE NUMBERS ELSW.

FAST MOVING SHRTWV LIFTS NE ACRS RGN DURG MON.  AT THE SAME TIME SFC
HI BEGINS TO RETREAT NWD WITH OVERRUNNING PATTERN DVLPG FM S TO N
DURG AFTN.  MSTR IS LIMITED SO ONLY CHC POPS DURG AFTN.  MAX ACCUM
ARND 1" ACRS SRN ST LAW VLY AND ADRNDCKS WHERE STRONGEST ISEN LIFT.
KEPT NE VT DRY WHICH IS FURTHEST REMOVED FROM BEST ISEN LIFT.  MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN LOW/MID 20S.

CONTD ISEN LIFT SHOULD ALLOW SOME LGT SNOW TO CONT SPREAD NWD ACRS
FA MON NGT.  MAX POPS ACRS SRN/WRN ZONES WHERE AN ADDITL 1" ACCUM
PSBL.

ON TUE...STG SHRTWV LIFTS NE FROM MS VLY TO ERN LKS WHILE ASSOCD
DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVS NE TO ERN LKS BY 00Z WED.  LGT PCPN EXPECTED
DURG THE MORNING WITH MORE SGFNT PCPN DURG AFTN AS STG QG LIFT MOVS
ACRS RGN WITH QPF 0.25-0.5".  PTYPE PROBLEMATIC AS TEMPS WRMG ALF.
THICKNESS PROFILES SHOW DEEP COLD AIR IN PLC FOR MSTLY SNOW TO START
TUE MORNING BUT PCPN GRDLY CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN...THEN RAIN
DURING THE AFTN...XCP NE VT WHERE MOSTLY SNW/SLEET AS THICKNESS
PROFILES SHOW DEEPER COLD AIR.  ACRS REST OF FA...LOW LVL COLD AIR
SLOW TO DEPART SO POCKETS OF FZRA LIKELY IN THE AFTN.  THOUGHT ABT
ISSUING GENERIC SPS BUT THINK THIS WL BE AN ADVSY EVENT SO WL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.

LOW LVL TEMPS WL CONT TO WRM TUE NGT SO MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED BUT
POCKETS OF FZRA PSBL NE VT WHERE STUBBORN LOW LVL COLD AIR SLOW TO
DEPART. MAX POPS WL BE TUE EVNG THEN DECRG OVRNGT TUE AS BEST
FORCING LIFT NWD.
&&

.LONG TERM (WED ONWARD)...
THE GOING FCST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD IN THIS TIME-FRAME. STORM SYS TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON WED...AS AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE
FA. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON THU. ANOTHER STORM SYS LOOKS TO
MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE FA ON FRI AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE FA ON
SAT. THIS COULD CHANGE THOUGH. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA ON NEXT
SUN. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING -SHSN ACRS MUCH OF THE
FA ON WED...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED ON WED NITE THRU THU NITE AND SAT
NITE AND SUN. ANY SHRASN ACRS THE FA ON FRI TO CHANGE TO SHSN FOR
FRI NITE AND SAT. FEW TWEAKS TO OUR GOING TEMP/WIND GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TO TRY AND MESH A LIL BETTER WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS.
&&

.AVIATION...
W-NW SFC WINDS TO DIE OFF ACRS THE FA AS HI PRESS BUILDS IN TONITE.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULDN/T LAST LONG.
SOME HIR CLDS MAY MOVE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW EARLY ON
MON...OTRW CAVU.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MURRAY






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN



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