Expires:200603122330;;142601
FPUS51 KBTV 120909
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-122330-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
409 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
AREAS OF FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. BECOMING CLOUDY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURE
FALLING INTO THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50
PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 15. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 120925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONGER DEEPENING LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY OCCLUDED/COLD FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUES BEFORE DAY BREAK. GUSTY NW FLOW FOLLOWS WITH SOME
UPSLOPE MTN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM
TO WATCH TRACKING SOUTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUSY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS TODAY. AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME DEALING WITH SOME ELEVATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE BULLEYES OF OMEGA...MOIST
CONVERGENCE...VORTS...BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AMOUNT...AND LOCATION OF PRECIP.

LOOKS LIKE 850 FGEN BEST REPRESENTS FORCING ON NAM/GFS WITH MAIN
PERIOD OF PRECIP 15- 21Z TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH WARM FROPA ALOFT
AND AGAIN WITH COLD FROPA 03-09Z TOMORROW NIGHT. CANT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW BASED ON QUESTIONABLE MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIP BULLEYES.

THINKING THIS IS A GOOD FOG/STRATUS SITUATION TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING BY SUNSET FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...PARTIAL CLEARING.
ETA SNDGS SUGGEST MORE FG WHILE GFS SUGGEST STRATUS...IN EITHER
EVENT ADDED AREAS FG TONIGHT.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH PLENTY GOING ON THROUGH
TUES. LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE ACRS ONTARIO AND MVG THRU QUEBEC TDY
WITH TRAILING/ DECAYING CD FNT TO MV ACRS FA LTR TDY. MOISTURE
POOLING ALG FNT TO BRG -SHRA ACTVTY BUT STG CONVECTION ACRS OH/MS
RVR VLY MAY STEAL OF SOME THAT AWAY.

VFR CONDS WITH CLDS INCRSG/LWRG/THICKNG WITH MVFR CONDS PSBL SHORTLY
AFT -SHRA ARRIVE 15-17Z ACRS FA. SHRA MV OUT RPDLY WITH LYRD MOISTURE
QUICKLY EXITING AND THIS SHLD BRG ABT CLRG SKIES ALTHOUGH CAA AND
LLVL DRY AIR WEAK. BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACRS FA SUN
NGT/MON MRNG...MORE SO THAN MOS DATA AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED AT END
OF FCST PD AND WL LKLY BRG TO LCL IFR CONDS IN FOG AFT 06Z MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING GENERALLY 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES BASIN AVG RAIN OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS SO THREAT OF FLOODING IS MINIMAL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SLW












FXUS61 KBTV 120145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
845 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES AND GRIDS OVERNIGHT.
SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. TRENDS ON IR
IMAGERY SUGGEST SUBLIMATION OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK/DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS PA/NYC/FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
CLOUDS WITH NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLR
THROUGH 11Z. THUS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN L/V WIND REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED MINS DOWN ABOUT 5F. BELIEVE
THAT THE 18Z GFS IS VERIFYING BEST IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND THIS
MODEL HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP IN WRN ZONES UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
THUS...HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM NRN
NY...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BELIEVE ONSET OF ANY PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT 16Z OR LATER
ACROSS NRN NY...AND AFTER 17Z IN VT. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO
ASSESS 2ND PERIOD POPS AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN FULL
SUITE OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATED ZONES ARE OUT. REMAINING TEXT PRODUCTS OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW MINUTES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 345 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FA THIS PM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
RGN. HIGH WILL CREST OVER AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A MSTLY
CLR START TO THE NIGHT ALG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...EXPECT A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RISING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT IN CHMPLN VLY AND ACRS MUCH OF
NRN NY. ALSO EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS...WITH JUST A SLITE OF SOME
LIGHT PCPN WRN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH SO
THAT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL BE IN FORM OF RAIN.

DURING SUNDAY...EXPECT RAIN SHWRS TO OVERSPREAD FA FROM WEST TO
EAST AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER
GRTLKS. MSTR AVBL...AS EVIDENCED BY PW'S CLIMBING ABOVE AN INCH FOR
A TIME. FORCING SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE GREATEST
FROM LATER AM THRU LATE PM IN ADVANCE OF WRMFNT DURING PM AND
OCCLUSION LATE PM/EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DURING PM...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER.

OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THRU FA MON EVENING. ANY SHWRS WILL COME TO AN
END FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLRNG. DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
DURING SUNDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME DENSE FOG
TO FORM SUN NITE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCD WARM/COLD FRONTS
WILL APRCH. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK OF LOW. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES A TRACK TO OUR NORTH UP THRU ST LWR VLY.
PW'S ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE AN INCH. DYNAMICS/FORCING MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN FOR EVENT ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SHWRS TO OVERSPREAD FA
DURING DAY AND CONTINUE INTO MON NITE. CDFNT MOVES EAST OF FA DURING
TUES ALLOWING FOR SCT RAIN SHWRS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXTENDED PORTIONS. SYSTEM ON TUES MVS N OF CWA BY
TUES EVENING...SETTING THE FA UP UNDER NW FLOW FOR WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP. SINCE THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MV E BECAUSE ITS VERT STACKED AND
NOT ENOUGH KICK TO PUSH WELL EAST...NW FLOW WILL BE PROMINENT INTO
THURS MORN. WK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION BY THURS NGT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORN. WILL CONT INUE WITH HIGHLIGHT OF CHANCE POPS
FOR -SW...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CWA...TUES NGT INTO THURS...TAPERING
OFF FROM W TO E. LATEST MDL RUNS CURRENTLY HAVE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND FOR NOW WOULD ONLY IMPACT SOUTHERN ZONES IN
CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF IT STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM N NW. WILL PUT IN CHANCE TO SL CHANCE
POPS FOR -SW FOR NOW...HI-LIGHTING SOUTHERN AREAS FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT
NORTH WILL SHIFT PRECIP SHIELD NORTH FURTHER INTO CWA...BUT BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN CWA IMPACTED MOSTLY FOR NOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU 12Z-14Z. FEW-SCT HIGH
CLDS WILL WORK INTO AREA AFT 00Z. WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL BECOME
LGT/VAR AFT 23Z-00Z...INCR FROM MAINLY SSW AFT 12Z. ALL BUT KMPV
WILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS AS FRNT APPROACHES REGION. VFR DOWN TO
IFR COND AFT 12Z AS -RW INCR IN COVER WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY TO BLW
3SM AT TIMES...ESP IN KSLK/KMPV. CLD DECK WILL LWR AS WELL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 112049
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FA THIS PM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
RGN. HIGH WILL CREST OVER AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A MSTLY
CLR START TO THE NIGHT ALG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...EXPECT A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RISING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT IN CHMPLN VLY AND ACRS MUCH OF
NRN NY. ALSO EXPECT AN INCR IN CLDS...WITH JUST A SLITE OF SOME
LIGHT PCPN WRN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH SO
THAT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL BE IN FORM OF RAIN.

DURING SUNDAY...EXPECT RAIN SHWRS TO OVERSPREAD FA FROM WEST TO
EAST AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER
GRTLKS. MSTR AVBL...AS EVIDENCED BY PW'S CLIMBING ABOVE AN INCH FOR
A TIME. FORCING SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE GREATEST
FROM LATER AM THRU LATE PM IN ADVANCE OF WRMFNT DURING PM AND
OCCLUSION LATE PM/EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DURING PM...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER.

OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THRU FA MON EVENING. ANY SHWRS WILL COME TO AN
END FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLRNG. DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD PCPN IS
DURING SUNDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME DENSE FOG
TO FORM SUN NITE.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCD WARM/COLD FRONTS
WILL APRCH. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK OF LOW. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES A TRACK TO OUR NORTH UP THRU ST LWR VLY.
PW'S ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE AN INCH. DYNAMICS/FORCING MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN FOR EVENT ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SHWRS TO OVERSPREAD FA
DURING DAY AND CONTINUE INTO MON NITE. CDFNT MOVES EAST OF FA DURING
TUES ALLOWING FOR SCT RAIN SHWRS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXTENDED PORTIONS. SYSTEM ON TUES MVS N OF CWA BY
TUES EVENING...SETTING THE FA UP UNDER NW FLOW FOR WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP. SINCE THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MV E BECAUSE ITS VERT STACKED AND
NOT ENOUGH KICK TO PUSH WELL EAST...NW FLOW WILL BE PROMINENT INTO
THURS MORN. WK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION BY THURS NGT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORN. WILL CONT INUE WITH HIGHLIGHT OF CHANCE POPS
FOR -SW...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CWA...TUES NGT INTO THURS...TAPERING
OFF FROM W TO E. LATEST MDL RUNS CURRENTLY HAVE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND FOR NOW WOULD ONLY IMPACT SOUTHERN ZONES IN
CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF IT STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM N NW. WILL PUT IN CHANCE TO SL CHANCE
POPS FOR -SW FOR NOW...HI-LIGHTING SOUTHERN AREAS FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT
NORTH WILL SHIFT PRECIP SHIELD NORTH FURTHER INTO CWA...BUT BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN CWA IMPACTED MOSTLY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU 12Z-14Z. FEW-SCT HIGH
CLDS WILL WORK INTO AREA AFT 00Z. WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL BECOME
LGT/VAR AFT 23Z-00Z...INCR FROM MAINLY SSW AFT 12Z. ALL BUT KMPV
WILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS AS FRNT APPROACHES REGION. VFR DOWN TO
IFR COND AFT 12Z AS -RW INCR IN COVER WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY TO BLW
3SM AT TIMES...ESP IN KSLK/KMPV. CLD DECK WILL LWR AS WELL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN








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References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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