Expires:201808062000;;633794
FPUS51 KBTV 061047
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018
VTZ006-062000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
643 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018
.TODAY...Sunny this morning, then partly sunny with a chance of
showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Light and variable
winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of
rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers until
midnight, then mostly clear after midnight. Humid with lows in the
upper 60s. West winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light
and variable. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with
highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 40 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
$$
Expires:201808061100;;633355
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 76 67 73 S6 30.03S
MONTPELIER FOG 63 63 100 CALM 30.13R VSB 1
MORRISVILLE FOG 62 62 100 CALM 30.08R VSB 3/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 63 100 MISG 30.07S
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 62 61 97 CALM 30.12R VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 70 67 88 S3 30.07S
RUTLAND* FAIR 64 63 96 SE7 30.10S
SPRINGFIELD FOG 64 64 100 CALM 30.10S VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* FAIR 73 67 84 S5 30.01F
NEWPORT* FAIR 64 64 100 CALM 30.08S
BENNINGTON FAIR 62 61 96 CALM 30.12R FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 64 N/A N/A W24 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 75 68 78 S12G23 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 73 70 88 S16 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 73 72 94 S12 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;628157
FXUS61 KBTV 060822 CCA
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon as Heat
Index values increase into the upper 80s to upper 90s due to hot
temperatures and high humidities. Muggy conditions continue Monday
night as low temperatures will remain in the mid 60s to lower
70s. A cold front will track through the North Country on Tuesday
and bring the possibility for strong to possibly severe storms.
Behind the frontal system we'll see a more normal airmass with dry
conditions and highs in the low 80s and lows at night in the 50s
to low 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Patchy fog continues over the
Connecticut River Valley this evening as a few light cirrus
clouds move over northern New York. Boundary layer winds
continue to preclude much fog over much of northern New York and
Champlain Valley. Low level winds from the VAD wind profiles
and the winds on Whiteface and Mansfield in the 20-25kt range
confirm the presence of a weak low level jet.
Temps have been slow to fall this evening as warm air advection
continues to surge in. With forecast 925mb temps about 1-3C
warmer today than they were yesterday I fully expect temps to
warm into the low 90s in the Champlain Valley and in the Saint
Lawrence Valleys. With dew points still expected in the mid to
upper 60s heat index values are expected to warm into the mid to
upper 90s in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys and into
the upper 80s to the low 90s elsewhere across the North Country.
Thus I've continued the Heat Advisory already in place and feel
that its important to keep getting the message out that due to
societal factors temperatures in the 90's with relatively high
humidity are especially dangerous across the North Country.
This evening there's not a lot of relief as temperatures only
fall to the upper 60s to low 70s. The fall will be fairly
incremental so its still likely to be in the low to mid 70s at
midnight once again with high humidity.
Tuesday a cold front will be pushing into the region and will
bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. There's a chance
that as the front moves in we could see a few isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms. With the warm and humid airmass in place
once we see diurnal heating the atmosphere should become
unstable fairly quickly and there's already going to be 30-40kts
of bulk 0-6km shear in place. Lapse rates look relatively weak
as the 700-500mb lapse rates average 5-6 C/km so not much higher
than moist adiabatic. This points to the primary threat as
gusty to damaging winds. We remain in a marginal risk from SPC
which still looks good. The threat of severe should quickly end
heading into the evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EDT Monday...Any lingering showers or
thunderstorms that are ongoing Tuesday evening will subside
overnight as instability decreases and the deepest moisture
shifts to our south and east. A frontal boundary will remain
draped over or near the North Country Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning and will likely not make much southward
progress until later Wednesday when the upper shortwave finally
crosses the region. Another round of showers/thunderstorms will
fire along this front again on Wednesday, though the details of
exactly where and when are still a little up in the air since
they depend on (1) where the front sets up and (2) when the
upper shortwave arrives. For now, consensus shows the morning
hours staying mainly dry under some brief ridging, then things
becoming more active for the afternoon/evening hours as the
shortwave trough approaches from the west. By the time the wave
draws near, the best instability looks to be focused to our
south, but still anticipate we'll have some convective
potential. Precipitation will likely linger into Wednesday night
but should end by daybreak Thursday. Temperatures will remain
near to above normal while dewpoints in the 60s will keep the
mugginess around through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 AM EDT Monday...Staying somewhat unsettled through
the end of the work week, then drier for the weekend. Another
upper shortwave will rotate around the upper low Thursday,
keeping the threat of showers in the forecast. The best chances
for thunderstorms arrives on Friday with another, stronger cold
frontal passage. This front will finally bring some relief from
the humidity as we'll see dewpoints drop down into the 50s. High
pressure builds in for the weekend, though with the front
poised just to our south, can't completely rule out some
additional convection, mainly in central/southern portions of
our forecast area. Temperatures will remain near normal through
the extended period, though as mentioned above, it will trend
drier as we head into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist across most
TAF sites through the forecast period with the exception of some
intermittent IFR fog at SLK and possibly MPV. Fog looks primed
to develop around 06-07z across eastern Vermont and portions of
the Northern Adirondack Mountains which includes both KMPV and
KSLK. The fog should be patchy in nature and will likely bounce
around a little as some stronger winds will develop above the
surface inversion which will mix some of the fog out and will
likely limit overall coverage of fog. Any fog that does develop
will quickly dissipate between 11Z and 13Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
evening for VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Deal
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