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May 2020, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 29 May 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202005292000;;922995
FPUS51 KBTV 290707
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
304 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020


VTZ006-292000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
304 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this
morning, then mostly cloudy with showers with a chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs
in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms until midnight,
then showers likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall until
midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance
of rain 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Not
as warm. Less humid with highs in the lower 70s. West winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds around 10 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202005291100;;931605
ASUS41 KBTV 291010
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  74  66  76 S17G25    29.90S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    69  66  90 S12       29.99F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    74  65  73 SW6       29.93S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     70  66  87 MISG      29.94S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    68  65  91 E5        29.99S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    72  66  82 S9G17     29.95R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    71  69  93 S5        29.98S                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    69  67  93 CALM      29.99S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      75  70  83 S9        29.88S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      69  68  98 CALM      29.94S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    73  65  75 S6        30.00S                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     68 N/A N/A SW5         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  63  88 S7G13       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  61 100 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  68  88 SE16        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;929136
FXUS61 KBTV 290913
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
513 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and 
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A few storms will be
capable of strong, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. An 
additional cold front on Saturday will bring the return of near 
normal to slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and through 
the first half of next week. By mid week, temperatures will 
return to mid 70s and bring a chance of showers to the North 
Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...The Storm Prediction Center has much of
Northern New York and western Vermont in a slight risk category
(Level 2 of 5) and southeastern Vermont in a marginal risk
category (Level 1 of 5). The most likely threat will be strong,
gusty winds. Additionally, we'll be monitoring the potential 
for training cells that may result in localized minor flash 
flooding.

Currently, light shower activity has largely dissipated, but some
are shallow in depth and are not well seen by the radar.
Montpelier is currently reporting light rain. We turn our
attention to an old upper low along the Mississippi River 
Valley that has now opened up and a northern stream shortwave 
trough digging across the Great Lakes at the moment. We will 
start to see heights fall as upper high weakens and shifts east.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the longwave trough over the 
eastern US will continue to advect warm, moist air into our 
region. Temperatures are currently in the upper 60s to mid 70s 
with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s as well.

A prefrontal trough will develop late morning/early afternoon. A
weak warm layer around 700 hPa will allow us to warm just a bit
before convection can pop, but around noon time, diurnal 
heating should be plenty sufficient to generate 700-1500 J/kg of
CAPE. An 850mb low-level jet of around 35 knots develops to our
south, and we are positioned along the nose of this feature. 
Weak synoptic forcing from an upper-level jet exists as well and
accelerating 500mb winds will result in the development of 
40-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Along the nose of the LLJ will be 
a helicity gradient that will become established along the 
interior Adirondacks east into the southern half of Vermont. 
Think this general area will have the greatest chance to see 
transient bows, weak mesocyclones, and other signs of
intermittent organization. All severe threats will be possible,
but winds will be the most likely. Outside of that region, 
dynamics should remain supportive enough that any discrete cells
will also need to be monitored closely for damaging downburst 
winds and small hail. We also continue to watch the chance for 
training convection, as we remain modestly unstable, even after 
our airmass gets worked over. The upper jet becomes meridional 
and accelerates overnight as the cold front comes across 
overnight. The upper trough axis becomes negatively tilted, with
strong upper diffluence and divergence. The additional synoptic
forcing and CAPE values of around 500 J/kg will likely result 
in one or two additional rounds of convection. The HREF 
continues to highlight the potential for localized minor 
flooding/flash flooding, with probabilities of 2" or higher 
storm total precipitation higher than 30% across the Southern 
Adirondacks and portions central Vermont. Antecedent dry
conditions should preclude significant impacts, but trends will
be watched closely.

Precipitation will begin to shift east around 2 AM on Saturday as
the vort max takes off north of our region with the wind shift piece
of the front coming through around dawn on Saturday. We then start
to trend drier and cooler with forecast highs on Saturday in the
upper 60s in the St. Lawrence warming into the upper 70s further
south and west near Springfield, VT. A secondary front will come
through later Saturday evening to reinforce the cooler air, and
could result in a few additional showers during the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...Strong shortwave and secondary cold front
rotate through early Saturday night with a few more showers and
sharply colder air. 925mb temps range from 3-10C and 850 mb temps
range from -5 to +3C thus highs in the 50s/L60s seem reasonable with
cold air advection still spilling into the area on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...No real changes from yesterday's
discussion. We're in cool trough that deepens across NH/ME into the
Gulf of Maine Sunday night-Monday with a chance of some mountain
sprinkles. This retreats with some building heights attached to
Southern Plains Ridge that attempts to build NNE but disturbances in
northern stream flow across Canada will likely dampen any heat ridge
for now. As the first weak disturbance moves through Tues ngt-
Wed...expect some rain showers with another disturbance directly on
it's heels Wed ngt - Thursday.

QPF shouldn't bee much but any little bit helps as we have been very
dry with record heat.

Temperatures are far from this past weeks heat, perhaps some
isolated frost early in the period for Mountain valleys if we stay
cloud free which is suspect. Highs starting in the L60s but ending
midweek close to 70 which is near seasonable. Lows starting in the
30s/L40s moderating into the 40s/50.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mix of MVFR and VFR with south to
southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots and occasional gusts to around
20 knots for the next few hours. LLWS continues across 
KMSS/KRUT/KMPV until 09Z with winds at 2000ft agl around 35 to
40 kts out of the southwest. Narrow band of showers is slowly 
moving east and could impact KSLK, and then dissipate without
impacting other terminals. Pocket of stratus around 1500-2500ft
agl also corresponds with this narrow band of showers, impacting
KSLK and KRUT and gradually lifting after 09Z. Scattered showers
begin to develop after 16Z, with a mention of VCTS after 19Z
across several terminals. Storms could be strong and produce
localized heavy rain and gusty winds, which would reduce 
vsby/cigs as well. There could also be the potential for
multiple rounds of showers and storms. Bulk of precipitation
should clear KMSS/KSLK/KPBG around 03Z-05Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Haynes

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