Expires:202004262000;;225432
FPUS51 KBTV 261039
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020
VTZ006-262000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
635 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY...
.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain this morning, then rain this
afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds,
becoming east around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain or snow. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches.
Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent.
.MONDAY...Snow likely in the morning. Rain likely. Total snow
accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the lower
40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of snow showers. Little
or no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. North
winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Little
or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
.THURSDAY...Rain showers. Highs around 50. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers, breezy with lows in the lower 40s.
Chance of rain 90 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s.
$$
Expires:202004261100;;225253
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 39 25 57 N6 30.06S
MONTPELIER FAIR 33 23 66 CALM 30.11S
MORRISVILLE FAIR 30 25 81 CALM 30.09S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 32 26 78 MISG 30.08S
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 33 24 69 CALM 30.10R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 37 27 68 CALM 30.05R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 44 32 62 SE6 30.05S
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 36 31 82 CALM 30.08S
HIGHGATE* FAIR 39 23 51 CALM 30.08S
NEWPORT* FAIR 32 28 84 CALM 30.11R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 44 36 73 N3 30.03R
ISLAND POND* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 41 N/A N/A NE5 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 37 N/A N/A E13 N/A WCI 29
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 41 34 75 N2 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 41 32 70 NW9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 43 28 56 N10 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;218446
FXUS61 KBTV 260757
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will track from the Ohio Valley into southern New
England on Sunday into Monday and produce a widespread precipitation
event for the region. Initially temperatures will be warm enough for
all rain, but as profiles cool especially in the mountains above
1000 feet rain will mix and change to snow on Sunday Night. Snow
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches is possible in the mountains by
Monday morning with minimal accumulations expected in the valleys.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s on Sunday, with
lows mainly in the 30s Sunday Night, before slowly climbing back
into the 40s on Monday. Another storm system will impact the region
late Wednesday into Thursday with more rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Winter Wx Advisory will take effect 22z
Sunday to 15z Monday for 2 to 6 inches of snow above 1000 feet for
the eastern Dacks and mountains of central/northern and eastern VT.
Slick travel and a few isolated power outages are possible in the
higher terrain Sunday night into Monday.
Impressive upper low lifting out of the Tennessee River Valley is
quite photogenic on satellite. The impressive outflow is indicative
of the favorable environment for the maintenance of this upper low
as it gradually lifts northeastward. Starting to see heights
fall as upper ridge erodes over our area. Not far behind will
be some energy lifting northward in advance of the upper low.
This will be the first batch of precipitation we see Sunday
morning, which is beginning to see radar echoes impinge on St.
Lawrence County in New York. This first round should be fairly
light, as antecedent dry air will require some saturation before
precipitation can reach the ground.
Then the warm front begins to tighten up. This will be supported by
strengthening, cool easterly flow from the maritimes, a 1030mb high
to the north, and positive thickness advection to our south.
The combination of the wet-bulb and then the developing thermal
gradient should cause highs to be achieved around noon, and then
temperatures will begin to gradually fall. The strong warm
front lifts into the North Country around 5 PM. A sharp area of
FGEN collocated with a deformation axis, a narrow tongue of
enhanced SEPV along the feature, and a coupled upper jet
structure are all the ingredients one needs for mesobanding
precipitation. As the previous forecaster noted, low-level dry
air will remain stubbornly entrenched, thanks to northerly flow
from the 1030mb high near James bay. However, that dry air will
also make it more favorable for dynamical cooling along with
wet-bulbing to cool most areas such that a period of wet snow
will occur as this intense band lifts over the region on then
pivots eastward around midnight.
There continues to be signs of dry air entrainment in the DGZ in
forecast soundings, which look a bit messier compared to last night.
Still, at the time of most intense precipitation, the strongest
omegas are within the crosshairs of the DGZ and when that band does
lift into the region, most soundings indicate supersaturation with
respect to ice. However, once the warm front lifts northward, dry
mid-level air should begin to periodically entrain. As the better
dynamics push east after midnight, anticipate some areas to flip
back to rain at times, except perhaps over the higher terrain.
As Sunday night progresses, temperatures will begin to cool aloft
while wrap around moisture efficiently streams into our area of a 40-
50 kt low-level jet. This will keep things fairly soggy into Monday,
and will allow for more terrain-dependent snow showers. Most
favorable conditions will be along eastern slopes from orographic
lift in the easterly flow. It appears that snow levels will
generally fall to 1000 ft. elevation overnight before lifting back
upwards as we warm during the day. Would also expect precipitation
to become more scattered during the daytime hours due to the higher
solar angle. It will still be a raw day with high temps forecast in
the low to mid 40s and 10-15 mph winds out of the north to northeast.
Overall, just tweaked QPF and snow downwards, given the somewhat
drier forecasts this evening. The forecast still looks good for
around 1.00" of precip for eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and
southern Greens with generally 0.25"-0.75" across the remainder
of the region. Snow amounts below 1000 ft elevation an inch or
less, and snow amounts above 2000ft should see around 2"-6". The
Peaks of Whiteface, Mt. Marcy, and Killington are all around
8"-12".
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...Low pressure will slowly pull away from the
region Monday night and Tuesday, moving across the Gulf of Maine and
south of Nova Scotia. Wrap around rain and snow showers will
continue Monday night, focusing mainly in the higher terrain as we
remain under north flow. Additional snow accumulation will be minor
and restricted to higher elevations. Lows will range from the upper
20s to mid 30s. Tuesday will see plentiful cloud cover and a gradual
decrease in areal coverage of showers as moisture lessens. It'll be
a cool day with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will keep the weather fair
Tuesday night through at least Wednesday morning. Conditions
deteriorate thereafter as an upper trough approaches from the west
Wednesday, eventually cutting off and spinning directly over the
North Country. Moisture increases sharply ahead of this feature on
the nose of a 60kt 850 mb south- southeast jet, resulting in
widespread precipitation developing later Wednesday/Wednesday night
and continuing through at least Friday. Still some differences
between models in the timing/details of this system, but overall
looking like precipitation will fall mainly as rain, with perhaps
some snow at the highest elevations. Also, the aforementioned jet
could result in gusty southeast winds in the favored downslope
regions on the western side of the Greens, though as always, it's
still uncertain how much mixing we'll see given the rain. The low
will move east of our area through the day Saturday, so we may
finally see dry weather resume by late in the afternoon. It's too
early to determine exact rainfall amounts, but guidance is
indicating that some areas could see an inch or more by Friday
evening. Temperatures will generally be near or just below seasonal
normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Expect VFR conditions through about 15z as mid
and high level clouds move up into the region. Conditions will
then change as precipitation gradually increases in areal coverage,
especially after 18z. Expect ceilings and visibilities to lower
into the MVFR and IFR categories during this time period. Winds
light and variable, though with an easterly preference through
12Z, then becoming northeasterly to northerly with time at speeds
in the 8 to 15 knot range with. Expect a snow and rain mix
across MPV around 22Z Sunday and at SLK around 02Z Monday.
Visibilities improve after 02Z, but ceilings likely remain MVFR
to IFR as precipitation becomes more intermittent. Will have to
reassess if there increasing gusts after 02Z when precipitation
becomes more intermittent. This will be relevant for potential
low-level wind shear across RUT and MPV at 45 kt easterly jet
sets up around 2000ft agl starting around 22Z-02Z.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
Monday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
Monday for NYZ031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Evenson/Haynes
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