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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 5

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 30 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (252 lines)

Expires:201812302100;;578358
FPUS51 KBTV 301146
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018


VTZ006-302100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
643 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 17. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of snow 20 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain. Light snow accumulation. Lows around
30. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow
accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Lows around 10 above. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow.
Lows around 20. 
.FRIDAY...Snow likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 20. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201812301200;;577809
ASUS41 KBTV 301130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    17   9  70 NE3       30.23R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    13  10  88 CALM      30.18R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    13  10  88 CALM      30.20R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     15   9  76 MISG      30.17S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      12   7  80 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    18  11  74 CALM      30.20S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    17  11  77 CALM      30.19R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    20  13  74 NE5       30.19R WCI  13          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    14   8  76 CALM      30.25R                  
NEWPORT*       FLURRIES   8   6  91 CALM      30.19R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    23  14  68 CALM      30.17R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     10 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      7 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     16  10  79 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     19  12  73 E3          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21  14  73 E6          N/A  WCI  14          

$$


Expires:No;;569820
FXUS61 KBTV 300827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
327 AM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will bring drier weather to
the North Country along with colder temperatures. The dry 
weather continues tonight into the first half of Monday before a
warm front lifts up into the region New Years Eve night. This 
feature will bring a wintry mix of precipitation to the area, 
which could result in difficult travel.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 244 AM EST Sunday...High pressure over the area today 
should keep much of the area dry with highs in the 20s to around
30. A weak upper level disturbance could bring a few snow 
showers to parts of northern New York late this afternoon and 
evening, but this precipitation should be fairly spotty and 
light. Favorable southwesterly flow off Lake Ontario will 
enhance the snow showers a bit, though think only a chance for 
some light snow showers in the Southern Saint Lawrence valley. A
bit more cloud cover will exist over the area tonight and thus 
lows will generally be in the mid teens to lower 20s. During the
day Monday, we'll have increasing clouds and moisture ahead of 
next system. Have chance of light rain mentioned late Monday 
beginning in our southwestern zones, but more persistent 
precipitation will move into our area overnight. Temperatures 
will be mild on Monday with southerly flow and warm air 
advection pushing temps into the 30s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 251 AM EST Sunday...Widespread precip event expected
Monday night into Tuesday across our cwa. Synoptic scale setup
shows southern stream shortwave energy moving across the MS
River Valley will enhance sfc low pres near the IN/OH border by
00z Tues. This sub 1000mb low pres will quickly track east
across northern NY/VT Monday Night into Tues. Strong low to mid
level waa lift/moisture associated with 50 to 60 knots southwest
850mb jet will produce widespread precip overnight Monday into
Tues. Once again sfc to 700mb thermal profiles are complex,
making for another challenging mixed precip event. Given deep
dry layer as precip arrives btwn 00z-04z Tues, column will cool
enough to produce a burst of wet snow in most locations. High
resolution NAM/NAM 3km and BTV 4km support this thinking, with a
quick dusting to an inch possible. Meanwhile, soundings show
several warm noses developing at BTV btwn 06-09z as 750mb temps
climb to +4c, with another warm layer around 900mb of 1 to 2c.
This combined with developing southerly winds of 10 to 20 knots
in the bl supports snow quickly changing to a cold rain in the
CPV/southern SLV, and Western Dacks. Position of sfc high pres
east of cwa, instead of north results in less low level CAD
signature in pres fields, but thinking moderately strong
southeast upslope winds will help keep cold air locked in place
on east side of the Greens for an extended period of mix precip.
Interesting, the fast moved of system cuts off warm nose from
reaching northern VT, especially northeast Kingdom, where 925mb
to 850mb profiles stay at or below 0c, supporting mostly snow.
Thinking a plowable snowfall of 3 to 6 inches is likely for
central/northern VT, especially the northeast Kingdom for this
event. Given snow ratio's starting 10/12 to 1 and dropping to 8
to 1, the wet snow could causes some isolated power outages. For
northern NY dusting to an inch or two of snow is likely, before
warm nose arrives and precip changes to rain with pockets of 
freezing rain. Some minor ice accumulation possible eastern 
Dacks, northern SLV, and central/southern VT. The main impact
from ice will be slipper travel, not enough ice accumulation
expected to cause power issues. Temps cool initial into the
upper 20s to l/m 30s, but warm into the mid/upper 30s northern
NY/CPV and hold steady east of the Greens on Monday Night.

By Tuesday, steadier and heavier precip quickly shifts east, as
mid/upper level dry slot develops. Expect storm total qpf of
0.40 to 0.75. As 995mb low pres moves into central Maine by 18z,
winds shift to the northwest and moderate 925mb to 850mb cold 
air advections. This will quickly change any mixed precip over 
to snow showers as 925mb to 850mb temps fall below 0c. Areal 
coverage of snow showers will become trrn focused as deeper 
moisture and lift is limited. Several inches of backside upslope
snow showers possible, which is supported by local BTV 4km 
data. Temps start in the mid 30s to lower 40s, but fall back 
into the 20s by late in the day on brisk northwest winds of 15 
to 25 knots. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 251 AM EST Sunday...Some changes noted in the 00z guidance
with regards to end of the week system. The 00z ECMWF/GEM/FV3
have trended north with southern stream system, resulting in
greater chances for precip. Given trends in guidance have bumped
pops into the likely range for Friday. Still plenty of
uncertainty on exact track of sfc low pres and amount of
southern/northern stream phasing. In addition, thermal profiles
would support another mixed precip event. ECMWF is most
aggressive with closed 5h/7h circulation passing to our south
with 986mb low pres over the Cape Cod Canal at 18z Friday. This
would advect plenty of deep moisture and lift across our cwa,
while 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles support the rain/snow line
over northern NY. Meanwhile, the GFS shows limited phasing and
keeps southern stream system suppressed, supporting just some
snow shower activity. The FV3 seems like a nice compromise btwn
the robust ECMWF and suppressed GFS solution, supporting a
quick moving low pres passing to our south. This would place our
cwa in a tight nw to se qpf gradient along with colder thermal
profiles for mainly snow. For now have increased pops to likely
and mention rain or snow based on uncertainty in thermal
profiles. Otherwise, mid week is quiet with temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Trying to time lower clouds finally 
dissipating across the area before next deck of clouds moves in 
towards morning. Some stubborn lower clouds still remain across 
much of the area at 1230 am. Drier air aloft will eventually 
scour out these clouds. VFR conditions begin Sunday at 12Z, but 
as the day goes on current MVFR over southwest NY and OH/PA will
begin to shift north and enter the region from southwest to 
northeast after 18Z. Winds trend light and variable, then shift 
to the SSW at 5-10kts beyond 16Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
New Years Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely SN, Likely SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles

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June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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