Expires:200507292000;;869836
FPUS51 KBTV 290631
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005


VTZ003-004-006-016-292000-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S. WEST WINDS 
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. 
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST 
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 80. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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FXUS61 KBTV 290650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
GREAT MID SUMMER PATTERN TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF
SHORT TERM AS MEAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SENSIBLE WX CONDS. ONLY
DISRUPTION TO THIS PATTERN WILL BE WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OPERATIONAL PROGS CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY PESSIMISTIC ON PRECIP POTENTIAL W/THIS FEATURE...AND SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT THIS OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND
APPARENT MID LVL CAP SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDING PROFILES. NONETHELESS
...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ALONG BNDRY
(PWATS 0.9 - 1.1") AND DUE TO FAVORABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING PEAK
INSOLATION HOURS...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AND A
SLT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MAV MOS MAX TEMP VALUES ARE RUNNING SOME 2-5 DEG
ON THE WARM SIDE...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAN CLOSER TO FWC/MET MOS
VALUES...WHICH LINE UP WELL WITH HYSPLIT BACK TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS.

AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING CLOUDS TO GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAVORED
LOCALES. AFTERWARDS...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WX TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS BROAD SRN CANADA/NRN LAKES HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. OTHER THAN PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE NOW OFFERING SOME SUBTLE CHGS TO PRIOR SOLNS...
OFFERING A WEAKER AND EARLIER SOLN IN REGARDS TO NEXT FRONT
AFFECTING AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN SUBSEQUENT
RUNS...MUCH OF TUESDAY MAY NOW WIND UP DRY...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS OF
PRECIP LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY...AS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR DROPS SOUTHWARD.
&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EXPECTED AT KMPV/KSLK TILL 13Z...WITH BRF
PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL KMSS/KBTV. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES AFTER 13Z.
EXPECT SCT040-050 BECMNG BKN040-050 AFT 18Z ALG WITH SLITE CHC
-SHRA...MAINLY IN NRN NY...DUE TO WEAK CDFNT MOVG ACRS RGN.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AFT 00Z WITH SKC BY ABOUT 03Z. FOG EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY KMPV/KSLK.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






FXUS61 KBTV 290127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRS CENTERED ACRS FA WL SLOWLY MV E ALLOWING SLGT GRADIENT
IN ST LWRNC VLY...OTHERWISE GUD RADTNL COOLING NGT. PRVS FCST LOOKS
GUD BUT ADDED RANGES ALG CHMPL VLY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH THE XCPTN OF BTWN 06-13Z WHERE FOG AT KSLK...KMPV AND
ALG WINOOSKI RVR WITHIN 2NM ENE OF KBTV WL CREATE IFR/LIFR CONDS. SOME
SC DVLPMNT DRG FRI WITH SCT-BKN045 AND SLGT CHC -SHRA IN NRN NY AFT 19Z
DUE TO WEAK CD FNT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY)...

THIS AFTNS TEMPS GNRLY REACHED THE 70-75 DEG RANGE. CURRENT SATL
IMAGERY INDCS CU ACRS AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED ACRS ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MTNS. THIS CU SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH SUNSET...WITH
VERY DRY AIR ABV H/8 LVL AS NOTED ON MRNG ACTUAL SOUNDINGS.

SFC HI PRES FM NRN VT ACRS WRN NY INTO THE OH VLY WL BLD ACRS THE
AREA TNGT WITH LGT WNDS AND PTCHY VLY FG. THE HI WEAKENS AND MOVS
OFSHR...AND BECOMES DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN MODEL DATA. TROP SYS
FRANKLIN OR ITS RMNTS MOVS NE RMNG WELL OFSHR. THUS GNRLY DRY WX
TNGT INTO FRI.

H/5 TROF MOVS ACRS N CNTRL GRTLKS LATE TNGT...INTO ERN GRTLKS ERLY
FRI...AND ACRS OUR AREA BY FRI NGT. GFS KEEPS BULK OF ENERGY WITH
THIS SYS MOVG ACRS SRN QUE DURG FRI AFTN/EVE...JUST N OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TAIL OF THE VORT AS THE NAM
MOVS IT A BIT FURTHER S. BASED ON SPARSITY OF MSTR...WL GO WITH GFS.
WL KEEP PCPN DISTRIBUTION AS SUGGESTED IN PREV FCST. ASOCD CDFNT
MOVS ACRS AREA DURG LATE FRI AFTN AND EVE.

THEREAFTR...FOR SAT INTO ERLY SUN...WE ARE IN A W OR NW FLO ALFT
WITH WK VORTS PRBLY JUST CAUSING PTLY SUNNY CONDS IN THE AFTN HRS
SAT. SFC HI PRES MOVS ACRS ERN GRTLKS SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENG ERLY
SUN. PATTERN SHUD RMN DRY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY FLATTENS AS FLOW ALOFT BECMS ZONAL AND WAA
DEVELOPS ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT LKS.  MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES WL
SHIFT FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO EASTERN MAINE BY MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE U70S
TO NEAR 80. MONDAY...WEAK WAA LIFT/MOISTURE FROM GREAT LKS MOVES
INTO OUR FA...WL MENTION CHC POPS LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
THE LLVL INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED BASED ON PROGGED DWPTS AND TEMPS
ONLY NEAR 80. TUESDAY...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS OF RW/TRW
AS LLVL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND/TEMP PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRNT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF FA ON WEDS AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO CWA. WL KEEP CWA DRY ON WEDS INTO THURS
WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO L80S.

AVIATION...(18Z-18Z)
HIGH PRES CENTERED ACRS THE FA IS PROVIDING CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VFR CONDITIONS. SAT PIC SHOWS A FEW VTCU ACRS THE MTNS
ZNS AND NORTHERN CPV ATTM. WL MENTION FEW-SCT IN TAFS...BUT WL
DECREASE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WL MENTION SOME FG
AT SLK/MPV TONIGHT...BUT IF CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS AROUND 4KFT LIKE
PREVIOUS SOUNDING/MOISTURE PROGS SHOW...THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT WL BE
LIMITED. FRIDAY...AFTER LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIFTS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW





FXUS61 KBTV 281903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY)...

THIS AFTNS TEMPS GNRLY REACHED THE 70-75 DEG RANGE. CURRENT SATL
IMAGERY INDCS CU ACRS AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED ACRS ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MTNS. THIS CU SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH SUNSET...WITH
VERY DRY AIR ABV H/8 LVL AS NOTED ON MRNG ACTUAL SOUNDINGS.

SFC HI PRES FM NRN VT ACRS WRN NY INTO THE OH VLY WL BLD ACRS THE
AREA TNGT WITH LGT WNDS AND PTCHY VLY FG. THE HI WEAKENS AND MOVS
OFSHR...AND BECOMES DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN MODEL DATA. TROP SYS
FRANKLIN OR ITS RMNTS MOVS NE RMNG WELL OFSHR. THUS GNRLY DRY WX
TNGT INTO FRI.

H/5 TROF MOVS ACRS N CNTRL GRTLKS LATE TNGT...INTO ERN GRTLKS ERLY
FRI...AND ACRS OUR AREA BY FRI NGT. GFS KEEPS BULK OF ENERGY WITH
THIS SYS MOVG ACRS SRN QUE DURG FRI AFTN/EVE...JUST N OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TAIL OF THE VORT AS THE NAM
MOVS IT A BIT FURTHER S. BASED ON SPARSITY OF MSTR...WL GO WITH GFS.
WL KEEP PCPN DISTRIBUTION AS SUGGESTED IN PREV FCST. ASOCD CDFNT
MOVS ACRS AREA DURG LATE FRI AFTN AND EVE.

THEREAFTR...FOR SAT INTO ERLY SUN...WE ARE IN A W OR NW FLO ALFT
WITH WK VORTS PRBLY JUST CAUSING PTLY SUNNY CONDS IN THE AFTN HRS
SAT. SFC HI PRES MOVS ACRS ERN GRTLKS SAT AND THEN INTO NEW ENG ERLY
SUN. PATTERN SHUD RMN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY FLATTENS AS FLOW ALOFT BECMS ZONAL AND WAA
DEVELOPS ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT LKS.  MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES WL
SHIFT FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO EASTERN MAINE BY MONDAY. THIS WL
PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE U70S
TO NEAR 80. MONDAY...WEAK WAA LIFT/MOISTURE FROM GREAT LKS MOVES
INTO OUR FA...WL MENTION CHC POPS LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
THE LLVL INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED BASED ON PROGGED DWPTS AND TEMPS
ONLY NEAR 80. TUESDAY...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS OF RW/TRW
AS LLVL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND/TEMP PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRNT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF FA ON WEDS AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO CWA. WL KEEP CWA DRY ON WEDS INTO THURS
WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z-18Z)
HIGH PRES CENTERED ACRS THE FA IS PROVIDING CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VFR CONDITIONS. SAT PIC SHOWS A FEW VTCU ACRS THE MTNS
ZNS AND NORTHERN CPV ATTM. WL MENTION FEW-SCT IN TAFS...BUT WL
DECREASE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE...WL MENTION SOME FG
AT SLK/MPV TONIGHT...BUT IF CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS AROUND 4KFT LIKE
PREVIOUS SOUNDING/MOISTURE PROGS SHOW...THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT WL BE
LIMITED. FRIDAY...AFTER LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIFTS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SFH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699 
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT 
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S                  
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F                  
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F                  
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F                  

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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