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May 2000, Week 1

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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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From:
"Andre L. Shoumatoff" <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 1 May 2000 03:18:25 -0400
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University of Vermont
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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You might be pleased to know that hopefully in few months we'll have some
sort of information (regarding global warming --and skiing--) on a
single website.

Eventually it will be at:
www.slushsucks.org

If you tune in now, you'll embark upon the brief effort Ozone Action has
put into it so far.  (They definetely aren't skiers)...
I was just hired by UVM's Environmental Council to put together this web
site.  I also guarantee that the information will be to the utmost
accuracy, but since it's tuned more towards "the skier
crowd" if anyone is interested in possibly making contributions
regarding making the technical jargon people accessible, I would love to
have/hear your input.

I researched global warming for most of the entirety of last summer (and
have off and on paid attention to the issue since then) working for
Ozone Action in Washington D.C.

In defense of accusations of poor quality information coming from
environmental groups, I agree, there certainly are screamers but the one I
worked for (and the groups I worked with, including The Sierra Club,
Union of Concerned Scientists, Environmental Defense Fund, and even
Greenpeace --groups which all have global warming as one of the most
important environemntal issues facing America today-- all have top notch
information that is accurate.  Very seldomly do these groups
actually use their own information (hire scientists to do the research
they are hoping will pan into another avenue where they've found a large
enough indication of global warming to make an issue of it); most
information on global warming (in fact, probably over 98%) comes from
individual scientists or groups soliciting soliciting their own
information on the topic, such as universities.  The majority of
scientists researching this topic also believe that global warming is a
serious issue (and that the United States should take a leading role
conquering it, since it is the world's largest CO2 producer) as stated in
a sign on statement signed by over 2800 American climate scientists
including 8 nobel peace prize winners, when there are less than 30
scientists in the world willing to actively take a stance saying that
global warming is a hoax.  And here's where environmentalism
turns dirty, but I swear it is absolutely true: many of these scientists
(they are all conveniently housed one one statement called "the Liepzig
declaration") are actually paid by the fossil fuel industry to make such
claims, such as Fred Singer (I believe formerly of Johns Hopkins
University) who brought in over $100G a year to the University from the
fossil fuel industry and wrote the Liepzig Declaration.

It is a huge and enormous issue, that potentially affects nearly every
realm of American society since life seems to be so unanimously consumed
with the assistance of fossil fuels.  There are no easy answers: the data
is awefully hard to state solidly as "evidence" because the predictions
and information has such great ranges of unpredicability.  All we know is
that it is happening, and it seems to be happening at a tremendously sky
rocketing rate (doing the ice core samples showed that the last ice age
only took 20 years to kick in and that *average* global temperatures (this
means the entire year's temperatures factored in) only went down about 5
degrees farenheit to cause the ice age.  In the last 100 years the average
temperature in Vermont has gone up 1 degree, making this rise 1/5th of an
ice age.  According to the ice samples, no rise even half as large has
ever occured previous to this century.  Likewise in the next 100 years,
temperatures (according to the IPCC --a UN conglomoration of 2500
scientists) are predicted to rise AT LEAST 1.8 degrees and at MAXIMUM 5.6
degrees.  That's nearly twice that of this last century, and more than
three times than that of the last 500,000 years according to the ice core
samples.

Now all of this scares the crap out of me, personally.  If you want some
more Vermont specific information, there are great places on the web to
see graphs and hopefully get through all of the jargon.

One of the best and most complete assessments of global warming's
potential impacts to NEW ENGLAND are all included in one report through
the University of New Hampshire's Complex Systems Research Center:
http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/

A real basic overview of how global warming can potentially impact New
Hampshire (skiing being listed as one of the four greatest potenial
economic impacts) can be found at:
http:/www.edf.org/pubs/reports/gwwhtmtns/

We're a graph of strictly warming in wintertime:
You'll notice the pixel depicting Vermont indicates the average wintertime
temperature has risen approximately 2-3 degrees in the last 30 years.
That's potentially a 9 degree rise in the next 60 years (from 30 years
ago) assuming that the rising trend stays the same.  But it's not, the
temps are rising at faster rates:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/shindell.04/
Find the graph of the world lay out and I believe that you can zoom in on
the area, if I remember correctly...


And seen as the authority on the issue is actually the EPA, believe it or
not, which is highly active in the global warming arena (when one might
assume that the government would take a poor stance on the issue
considering over 60% of congressional campaigns are signifcantly funded by
the fossil fuel industry --which explains why nothing mentioning the words
"global warming" "kyoto" or even the CAFE standards eliminating the SUV
loophole has every had a chance of even making it to the floor of
congress.)

http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/

Speaking personally, my hands right now are still dirty from today's day
of "working on the Volvo."  I'm not anti car, I'm not anti industry, I
realize that a lot of people can potentially lose their jobs, and I
realize that money from perhaps one of the most economically productive
industries in the history of America would be signifigantly redirected if
"global warming" were to "exist."  I think it's something we, as a
nation, (or perhaps as skiers?) are going to have to eventually face, as
it is catching up with us, not the other way around.

I personally would love to see a ski area initiative (Skip?) or perhaps
the world of skiing somehow assemble to be concerned about this topic.  My
personal prediction is that I think skiing (at least in New England) will
probably be well affected in the next 50 years.

And to conclude, pardon my long ramble, but if anyone has any questions or
concerns please feel free to contact me back channel (or in public) by all
means.

Stepping off the soap box...

Andre Shoumatoff
Burlington VT  (802) 864-0830
http://www.uvm.edu/~ashoumat

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