The professor's data at Madison is not conclusive:  the Bush
campaign argued that there was a huge number of Reform Party
members in Palm Beach county compared to other parts of the
state and that the Reform Party had a congressional candidate
who was strong in that district as well.  So you have to use
the statistics to refute the Right's latest arguments.

That's what Paul Rosenberg did, fortunately, and this is raw,
info that was used for a flyer I will send you all.  Paul examined
patterns in voting precinct by precinct for the reform party
candidates and the presidential candidates and found that the
Reform party's vote was more likely to go to Nader than Buchanan.

I've excerpted my emails with Paul below.

-rich





Rich,
  > the info on the reform party candiate (precinct totals, as well
  > as number of reform people registered in the county) would be
  > interesting to fact check against what Baker is saying. I'll
  > wait to hear from you on this.
The most telling question is "how likely were Reform Party voters for
Congress likely to vote for Buchanan." The answer is "not very." A
precinct-level analysis indicates that they're Nader voters, not
Buchanan voters. They were no more likely to cluster with Buchanan
votes than they were wit Browne, Bush or Gore.

Precinct-level Correlations Between Reform Party Candidate for Congress
John McGuire and all presidential candidates.
Nader 0.643234
Browne 0.166002
Bush 0.162382
Gore 0.136447
Buchanan 0.134308
Phillips 0.084807
Hagelin 0.063085
Moorehead 0.035352
Harris -0.01423
McReynold -0.06343
--
Paul Rosenberg
Reason and Democracy
[log in to unmask]
"Let's put the information BACK into the information age!"






and from a later post:


Rich,
I just got off the phone from talking with John McGuire, the Reform
Party candidate for Congress in Palm Beach County. He really didn't
know anything about the increase in Reform Party registrtion, aside from
himself and a few people close to the campaign.
He joined pre-Buchanan, and doesn't feel identified with him. He
endorsed Bush late in the campaign. The following from his website
confirms that he's pretty much a Perot-era kind of candidate. He
wouldn't say anything particularly negative about Buchanan & I didn't
press him, but he's the most active, high-profile Reform Party
politicians (and he'd HATE to be called that! <g>) in Palm Beach County,
and nothing he said showed any real liking for Buchanan or any knowledge
of a strong base or organized support for Buchanan.
-- Paul





another post:

 >My own review of the data suggests that the error might have been even
 >greater than Prof. Adams says it is. (I'll explain if you're interested.)
Even
 >though it would make no sense to substitute statistical estimates for counted
 >votes, the data do show -- about as clearly as anything short of a
 >time-machine
 >trip could do -- that a new election in Palm Beach County (or in all of
 >Florida) is absolutely essential if we're to get the President we voted for.
 >
 >-----------------------------------------------------------
 >John Winston Bush, PhD
 >Clinical Psychologist
 >207 Berkeley Place
 >Brooklyn, NY 11217-3801
 >USA
 >-----------------------------------------------------------
 >Tel: 718 636-5071
 >Fax: 718 636-5166
 >E-mail: [log in to unmask]
 >Web: http://www.cognitive-behavior-therapy.org
 >-----------------------------------------------------------
 >
 >
 >



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