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SKIVT-L  March 2001, Week 5

SKIVT-L March 2001, Week 5

Subject:

Re: Breaking news from the Evril Empire!

From:

Michael Bernstein <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 29 Mar 2001 19:19:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (208 lines)

Leigh -

I actually agree with just about everything you've written.  Please allow a
rebuttle.  There is no doubt that real estate profits are plowed back into
the hill, in the form of newer lifts, more terrain (sometimes), and more
snowmaking.  For the mostly expert, and certainly dedicated,
skiers/boarders that frequent this list, that 80:20 rule works to our
advantage.  I watch with glee as the hoards descend Chute on Snowdon Peak,
while I am on my way elsewhere.  The cockles of my heart warm as I notice
the masses descending Spring Fling and Hotshot at Sugarbush.  Just more of
the good stuff for me, you see.  Same thing goes for just about any place
with a lower % of advanced skiers (read: all mass market areas).  While we
can hoot and holler in this relative obscurity b/c of our ability and
inclination to find these spots, the vast majority of skiers isn't so
fortunate, let alone beginners.  If you are just starting out, or are
simply plateaud at intermediate status, this terrain is often beyond your
ability level.  Unless you are really dedicated ( a small minority in any
pursuit), you pretty much stay where you are comfortable.  Worse, these
skiers, especially the beginners, are confined to the very places that are
most crowded - the trails in site of the parking lot and the obvious
choices (like liftlines) visible from the lift.  It stands to reason that
when you travel to China for the first time on a 2 day visit, you don't
dive right in and order the Turtle's Blood soup and fried cockroaches for
dinner.  More like: I'll have the Kung Pao chicken please!  In a similar
vein, when you are fairly new to the sport of skiing, you will tend to
stick to the beaten path until you get more comfortable.  Well those paths
have been beaten into a mockery of the sport.  They say that only 20% of
skiers who try the sport stay with it.  I would be willing to bet my right
arm that a significant % of this 20%, if not the majority, are the sons and
daughters of skiing parents.  Those parents have the time, patience, and
(now) the financial resources to encourage their kids to learn and explore
on the hill.  Newcomers to the sport have no such luxury.  For them, skiing
is becoming intimidating, expensive, and unpleasant:  Where do I park?  Is
there a shuttle to the base lodge up the road?  Where is the ticket office?
Where can I put my ski clothes on?  Where is the rental shop?  What
equipment is best for my size?  These boots don't fit! Where is the ski
school?  You want HOW much for that bagel?  Why did that guy in the Giants
jacket just run over my skis?

I don't think that ASC will ever succeed if it continues down its current
path.  Unless skiing as a whole enjoys a renaisance, its finances will be
in a continuous state of disarray.  Don't kid yourself into comparing it to
its more successful peers:  Intrawest is a real estate development company
with long established and year-round revenue streams.  It also has a MUCH
more favorable balance sheet than ASC can hope for in the next 5 years.
Vail has two unique advantages.  The first is that it is a brand unto
itself.  People will always be drawn to Vail because it is Vail.  The fact
that there are 5400 acres to play on can't hurt either.  Breck, Keystone,
and Beaver Creek all have their niches and they stick to them well.  The
fact the you have a ski happy metro area with several million people just a
couple hours away doesn't hurt either.  But why do you think Vail fought so
hard to add Blue Sky Basin and is doing the same now for Peak 7 at Breck?
They know that the failure to stay at the forefront of new terrain
expansions will lead to visitor stagnation.  Besides, if their stock price
is any guage, they aren't exactly at the top of the Wall St. "recommended"
list anyway.   A look at their stock chart shows an interesting phenomenon
over the lat three years.  The rises to its annual high as New Year
approaches, only to fall back to Earth in the spring and the offseason.  A
high flying success this is not.

To tell the truth, I think the closer comparisons are to ASC's
undercapitalized competitors Booth Creek and Resorts of the Canadian
Rockies (RCR)  Booth Creek is stumbling along just as badly as ASC, but out
of the public eye b/c it is privately held.  RCR followed the same
breakneck expansion path as ASC and has filed for bankruptcy.   Without a
major asset disposal (meaning that Sugarloaf, Sugarbush and Attitash don't
count), ASC will be in a hole for a long time to come.







Leigh Daboll <[log in to unmask]>@LIST.UVM.EDU> on 03/29/2001
12:55:11 PM

Please respond to Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports
      <[log in to unmask]>



Sent by:  Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>


To:   [log in to unmask]
cc:
Subject:  Re: [SKIVT-L] Breaking news from the Evril Empire!


As expected, I can't help but weigh in on this one (from, perhaps, the far
right as well, but what the hey).

However, I have to respectfully disagree with some of what MB said, and yet
agree with some of his other points.  This is a complicated issue, and for
virtually every negative associated with ASC or Intrawest, there is usually
a corresponding positive as well.  Sometimes I think that the members of
this list forget just how involved and, frankly, specialized their tastes
in
mountain recreation have become compared to Joe and Jane public.  Sometimes
I think you forget that the reason areas like Sunday River or Gore or
Whiteface close off their glades pending full coverage is that it's just
not
worth the customer complaints along the lines of "my ski bases got nicked
on
a stone/root, I want you to replace my skiis."  Sometimes I think you
forget
that  most of the public says "oh god, why can't they flatten out this &^%
$%
powder and widen the trails - I/myspouse/mykids can't ski this stuff.

In short, the big companies try to do the best job they can trying to
appeal
to the wider cross section of the skiing public.  None of them are crazy
enough to deliberately piss off this base.  Unfortunately, there just are
not enough of "us" out there in comparison.  HOWEVER, every big area I've
been to recently which one might think has catered to the worst excesses of
Ottendom (The Canyons is a good example), has used a large chunk of its
McSki income to develop many expert areas of the mountain which could never
have been financed without the McSki crowds/dollars.  In short, I have
learned to live with the 80:20 rule (eighty percent of the skiers on 20% of
the terrain, and to have a great time despite the crowds and McSki trails
elsewhere on the hill.  It ain't hard folks. The recent Mt. Sneux posts
make
a good case in proving my point.

Most importantly, we really need the big players in the industry to stand
up
to the myriad of environmental isssues/special interest groups like
Restore:
The North Woods who have a hate-on for the industry and everything it
stands
for, big OR small.  There are two reasons for this.  First, we need to
appeal to as broad a cross section of the public as possible to generate
the
maximum amount of public sentiment in favour of growing/preserving the
industry.  If every resport appealed to the same limited cisutomer base as
MRG, I will guarantee that skiing would soon suffer the same fate as
foxhunting is experiencing in England (ie:dying/legislated out of
existence).  Second, only the big players have the resources and contacts
to
successfully fight the extremist and unceasing arguments of the enviros.
It
is a misstatement to say that enviros are opposed only to the big resort
developments.  They are opposed to virtually everything.  Silverton is good
example, as is a recent cat skiing proposal in BC.  Both are limited
operations catering to high end skiers.  Both are vigourly opposed by the
enviro-industry despite the lack of any major resort lodging base being
proposed, and despite being favoured by a local community desperate for
tourist dollars.

No matter how much we slag K and Sunday River, there is no queston that
they
and resorts of their ilk introduce AND RETAIN the vast majority of
tomorrow's skiers in a volumetric way that MRG, high retention
notwithstanding, can't come close to matching.  If MRG was truly,
meritoriously desirous of introducing as many peolpe to the snow as
possibile, it wouldn't maintain a snowboard ban. It's a personal preference
among the existing members to enhance their personal experience
there -nothing less and nothing more, and it certianly has nothing to do
with growing the sport. But that's ok -it's a choice they've made (not
necessarily one I agree with), but it works for them.  However, for MRG
shareholders to flip the argument around and say that K is "not sucessful"
not only shows disrespect to those who enjoy the K experience ("ie: big,
bad, chock full of nightlife"), but is just plain silly from a financial
perspective.

I still think ASC will ultimately succeed at what they are doing, and I
still think that it will ultimately benefit the industry as a whole.  Use
Whistler as an example if you wish.  Anyone who says that "Whistler sucks"
either hasn't been there, or has the creartivity of a cockroach when it
comes to enjoying themslves in the smorgasboard of sliding options
available
there.  So what if the town centre looks like Disneyland?  My view is, the
more people that shop, the less are on the hill.  And the more people that
buy, the more money for lifts that get strung out into further and further
reaches of previously undeveloped expert terrain.  Besides, as my kids get
older, it's important to me that they want to contue accompanying me on
holidays.  I think there is a much greater chance of that at age 19 if they
can say BOTH  "Wow, that was some wicked club I was at last night with some
friends I met," as well as "Let's rip up some steeps together Dad!

There's room for all visions.  More importantly, we really NEED both
visions.

Leigh

----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bernstein" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Thursday, March 29, 2001 10:31 AM
Subject: Re: [SKIVT-L] Breaking news from the Evril Empire!


> Danger, danger!!  Rant coming.....

<snip>

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