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SKIVT-L  September 2002, Week 1

SKIVT-L September 2002, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 4 Sep 2002 07:03:15 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (237 lines)

Expires:200209042000;;918052
FPUS51 KBTV 040734
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-042000-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
330 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES. LOW AROUND 50.
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WIND 10
TO 20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN
THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S
AND HIGH NEAR 70.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 040642 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
242 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

...UPCOMING WEEKEND WARM-UP ON HOLD?!...

FCST DILEMMA: 00Z MDLS ARE SHOWING A CHG FM ERLR RUNS THAT WUD
AFFECT THE WKND/ERLY NXT WEEK AS BKDOOR CD FNT NOW FCSTD TO ARRIVE
24 HRS ERLR THAN PRVS THOUGHT.

CRNT: SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MVG ACRS CHMPL VLY AHD OF SFC CD FNT MVG THRU
ST LWRNC VLY.

SHORT TERM: ULVL S/W AND TROF AXIS TO MV ACRS FA THIS AFTN WITH
STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND SOME AVBL LLVL MOISTURE FOR
INSTABILITY CLDS ALG WITH SPRINKLES...MAINLY NRN/MTN ZONES. CAA
WL DROP H8 TMPS 5-6C COOLER THAN YDY WITH SFC TMPS ABT 10F COOLER
(SEASONABLE) THAN YDY.

MDLS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH SHARP DEEPENING OF ERN QUEBEC/NOVA
SCOTIA TROF TNGT WITH STG S/W DROPPING SE ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND
AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHD OF NEW SFC HIGH FOR FA. LLVL
INSTABILITY CONTS ALG WITH ULVL SUPPORT AND RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE
THAT CHC MTN SPRINKLE IN NRN VT STL PSBL. DECENT CAA CONTS TNGT BUT
GRADIENT WL PREVENT "COLD" TMPS BUT MUCH COOLER.

ON THU...SFC HIGH MVG INTO FA BUT STL DECENT GRADIENT ALG WITH
STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME GOOD MIXING AND CONTD COOL...DRY AIR
INTO FA. SFC HIGH ACRS FA THU NGT WL ACCNT FOR A "COLD" NGT ACRS FA
WITH MINS IN 30S/40S ACRS ENTIRE FA...PERHAPS SOME L30S IN DEEPEST
MTN VLYS BUT GRND TMPS WRM ENUF WITH RECENT WRM SPELL TO HOLD OFF
FROST THIS TIME.

SFC HIGH MVG JUST S OF FA AND COLD...DEEP TROF EXITING E WL ALLOW
FOR NICE MODERATING TMPS ON FRI WITH PLENTY OF SS. H8 TMPS RISE FM
6-10C THU TO 13-14C BY FRI PM...THUS 8-10F WRMR ON FRI.

LONGER TERM: THIS IS WHERE SOME ??? HAVE ARISEN AND CONFIDENCE IS
SLIPPING.

ETA BRKS DOWN MS/OH RVR VLY ULVL RDG MORE THAN OTHER MDLS AND HAS
A STGR...MORE AMPLIED S/W ROTATING UNDERNEATH NRN CNDN UPR LOW TO
PUSH BKDOOR FNT THRU FA SAT WITH DECENT SFC HIGH DROPPING ACRS
QUEBEC. THIS WUD MAKE FOR A COOLER SAT THAN CRNTLY INDICATED PLUS SFC
BNDRY TO BE SOUTH OF FA FOR ANY ACTVTY THAT DVLPS AND MVS UP/OVR ULVL
RDG SUN/MON FOR COOL AND PSBLY DAMP SCENARIO.

MEANWHILE...OTHER MDLS (AVN/GEM/UKMET) DO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A MORE SRN
SHIFT TO FNT BUT STL DRAPE IT ACRS ST LWRNC VLY CANADA SAT WITH ULVL
HIGH MAINTAINING IT'S GRIP AND KEEPING THE BNDRY THERE THRU THE WKND
WITH ACTVTY MVG UP/OVR RDG ALG BNDRY ACRS SRN CANADA/NRN NH/ME.

ATTM...WL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESCALE CHGS TO SAT/SUN BUT MAY TRIM TMPS
ACRS NRN FA A FEW DEGS SAT/SUN WITH STL VRY WRM ACRS SRN FA.

NO CHGS TO MON/TUE (FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS FAR OUT) BUT FEEL -SHRA
THREAT WUD LINGER ERLY MON AND DRY TUES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN.

WORKS AVBL ARD 230 AM.

***UPDATED***
DESPITE ABLE TO POPULATE GFE...PROBLEMS CREATING ZONE GROUPINGS AND
SPITTING OUT ZONES. NCF HAS BEEN NOTIFIED AND HOPE TO HAVE IT FIXED
BY 4 AM. IF NOT...WL EDIT PRVS ZONES BUT DIGITAL/GRAPHICAL DATABASES
WL BE UNAVBL.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW






FXUS61 KBTV 040056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
856 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2002

SHWRS/TSTMS CRNTLY N AND S OF FA WITH NOTHING IN BTWN ACRS RGN.
MAX INSTABY S AND BEST DYNAM N...NOT A GOOD RECIPE FOR RAFL.  CDFNT
NR YOW AT 00Z WL BE MVG ACRS FA OVRNGT AND NOT XPCTD TO CLR CT VLY
TIL 12Z.  CANT RULE OUT A SHWR WITH FROPA TNGT SO WL KEEP LOW POPS
IN EVERYWHERE XCP ST LAW VLY.  INSTABY DECRG RPDLY AFT 03Z SO BEST
CHC THUNDER WL BE NXT FEW HRS...MAINLY ACRS ADRNDCKS.  CRNT TMPS
LOOK GOOD...MAINLY 50S.

WED...UL S/WV SWINGS THRU AS TROF AXIS MVS ACRS RGN.  THIS COUPLED
WITH DEEPENING LL MSTR AND STEEP LPS RATES WL RSLT IN INCRG CLD CVR
DURG AFTN AND CHC SPRINKLES/SHWR...ESP MTNS.  RAISED TMPS A FEW DGRS
BASED ON H8/BL TMPS.

.BTV...NONE.

KJC






FXUS61 KBTV 032013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2002

SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AT TIME AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR TONIGHT.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  MODELS SHOW A SHRTWV MOVG SEWD FROM
QUEBEC WED AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN NE VT AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WED NIGHT...BUT THEN CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRES TO BUILD SE FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY..WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NEW 12Z MOS GUIDANCE NOW COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS
FCST.

EXTENDED...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.  NEW 12Z AVN MODEL RUNS
SHOWS THAT UPPER RIDGE TO BE SOMEWHAT FLATTER THIS WEEKEND THAN
PREVIOUS FCST...WITH A COLD FRONT TO LIE JUST NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT
GIVEN STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE THIS
IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT COMING DOWN
EARLIER IN THE DAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

    Our Local Student forecasts have been completed for the School year.
              They will resume again in September. Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
 RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
 330 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
 HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
 .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES. LOW AROUND 50.
 NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
 .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WIND 10
 TO 20 MPH.
 .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
 .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S.
 .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
 .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
 THE NIGHT. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
 .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN
 THE LOWER 70S.
 .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S
 AND HIGH NEAR 70.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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February 2002, Week 1
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