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SKIVT-L  September 2002, Week 3

SKIVT-L September 2002, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 20 Sep 2002 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (276 lines)

Expires:200209202000;;207601
FPUS51 KBTV 200758
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-202000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 75 TO 80. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20
MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW 55 TO 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70
PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 40S AND HIGH IN THE 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 40S AND HIGH IN THE 60S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 40S AND HIGH IN THE 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 200751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

UNSEASONABLY WRM CONDS WL CONT NXT 2 DAYS UNDER STG UPR RDG...THEN A
PD OF WET WX LKLY LTR IN THE WEEKEND AS TROP MSTR SURGES NWD ALG
FNTL BNDRY.

MAIN FCST PRBLM THRU TNGT IS SKY CONDN AND WHETHER TO INCL POPS FOR
W ZNS AS GUIDNC POPS RTHR HI.  WITH RDG AXIS OVR NE...DEEPER MSTR WL
RMN N/W OF FA SO WL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST.  CANT RULE OUT A LGT
SHWR FOR ST LAW VLY WHICH IS CLOSEST TO DEEPER MSTR BUT DECIDED TO
LV OUT TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREV FCST.  XPCT CONSIDERABLE
HI CLDS ACRS RGN...ESP N BUT SHD BE ENUF SUN THRU CLDS FOR PTSUNNY
SKIES.  2M/BL TMPS SUGGEST A FEW DGRS WRMR TDA WHICH PUTS MAXES IN
U70S TO L/M 80S.  ONLY POTL PRBLM WL AMT OF CLD CVR BUT MID 80S
CERTAINLY ATTAINABLE ST LAW VLY IF ENUF SUN AS YDA UPSTREAM MAXES IN
WNY/OH WHERE MID 80S.  WITH DWPTS CLIMBING TO M/U60S FM ST LAW VLY
TO CHMPLN VLY IT WL FEEL LIKE MID SUMMER.

MSTR OVR RGN TDA LIFTS NWD TNGT SO PTCLDY TO MOCLR CONDS TNGT.  SLY
BREEZES AND HI DWPTS WL RSLT IN MILD NGT WITH MINS MSTLY IN 60S...
XCP SOME 50S CT VLY RGN WHERE LGT WNDS XPCTD.

WHAT/S LEFT OF CNTRL PLNS UPR LOW WL AFFCT RGN LTR SAT.  UPR LOW
WKNS CONSIDERABLY AS IT MVS EWD INTO RDG WITH WKNG VORT LOBE MVG
INTO RGN LT SAT WHILE ASSCD FNT APCHS ST LAW VLY.  ASSCD BAND OF
DEEPER MSTR MVS ACRS RGN DURG SAT SO CHC SHWRS LOOKS GOOD SAT
AFTN...MAINLY FM CHMPLN VLY WWD.  WL KEEP IT DRY E/S VT AS MSTR AXIS
RMNS W OF RGN FOR MCH OF SAT.  WRMST H8 TMPS OVR RGN 12Z SAT WITH
TMPS 18+ GRDLY COOLG 18-00Z.  WITH FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE XPCTD ACRS E
ZNS...TMPS INTO 80S LKLY PER MET GUIDNC.  KEPT MAXES IN 75-80 RNG
W ZNS WITH MORE CLDS.

XTNDD...ETA/AVN SHW FNTL BNDRY BCMG STNRY ACRS RGN SAT NGT/SUN AS
UPR FLOW BACKS AHD OF AMPLIFYING TROF MVG INTO GT LKS AND WAVE DVPS
ON FNT.  TROP MSTR SURGING NWD WITH PW/S > 1.5" AND STNRY CNVGC AREA
SUGGEST POTL HVY RA SAT NGT/SUN ACRS FA.  ETA TARGETS W ZNS WHILE
AVN TARGETS CHMPLN VLY/NC VT.  SEF SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF HVY RAFL
TIL SUN NGT/MON.  ONLY CHG TO XTNDD PD WAS TO UPGRADE TO SHWRS LKLY
SUN.

.BTV...NONE.

KJC






FXUS61 KBTV 200132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
932 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS
AND GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
NEARLY CALM ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EASTERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD FAIRLY CLOSE...SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THESE ZONES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REMAINDR OF
FCST LOOKS GOOD.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH






FXUS61 KBTV 191839
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
238 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TONITE THRU SAT...AS A
CF MOVES ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. THIS CF TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
FA ON SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD IN
ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS
REGION ON SUN/SUN NITE AND THE FA ON MON.

WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI/EARLY FRI
NITE...THEN WK CAA FOR LATE ON FRI NITE AND INTO SAT. LOW-LVL MSTR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON FRI AND THEN
AGAIN ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA
ON SUN AS WELL. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA TONITE AND
FOR MUCH OF FRI...THEN LOW-LVLS LOOK TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA ON FRI
NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE AGAIN ACRS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SAT THRU SUN. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON FRI
AFTERNOON. MID-LVLS TO BASICALLY BE DRY ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI
NITE...WITH SOME MID-LVL MSTR AFFECTING THE NRN TIER ZONES ON FRI.
MORE MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON SAT/SAT NITE. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BASICALLY BE 1-1.5" ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU FRI NITE...THEN 1.5+" ON
SAT.

NOTED MUCH OF FA IN SPC GEN TSTM OUTLOOK FOR TONITE THRU FRI NITE.
SAT PIX SHOW JUST A FEW CLDS ACRS THE FA ATTM. WILL DISCOUNT GEN TSTM
OUTLOOK AND HANG ONTO DRY FCST FOR TONITE THRU FRI NITE. WILL ALSO
CONT TO INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR ANY SHRA ON SAT WILL BE TOWARDS THE
WRN ZONES AS THE CF APPROACHES THEN. CF LOOKS LIKELY TO STALL OUT (OR
AT LEAST SLOW DOWN) ACRS A PORTION OF THE FA IN THE SAT NITE THRU SUN
NITE TIME-FRAME. WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NITE AND CHC POPS
FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF MENTIONING TS ON
SAT/SAT NITE WITH CFROPA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. MON
LOOKS AT THIS PT TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY INTO SOME DRIER WX...BUT
WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE NEXT
TWO NITES. T1MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON FRI/SAT AND LOOK A
TAD WARM FOR SAT BASED ON EXPECTED CLD COVER THEN.

INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESS TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WX FOR TUE THRU THU...HENCE DRY FCST AND SEASONAL
TEMPS FOR THEN.

WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 PM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

253
ASUS51 KBTV 201005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    67  61  81 S17G25    29.93S
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    63  58  83 SE14      30.00F
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    64  59  83 S5        29.95F HAZE
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     60  56  86 CALM      29.96F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    61  55  82 SE7       30.00F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    56  54  93 CALM      30.04S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    64  59  83 W6        30.02F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                    12:00PM, Thursday September 19, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Thursday: This afternoon it will be mostly sunny and pleasant with
   winds flowing from the south at 5-10 mph, raising the temperatures
   into the mid-upper 70s.

   Thursday Night: Scattered clouds filter in, winds die down and
   temperatures cool into the low-mid 50s. Fog will still be a threat,
   mainly patchy along valley floors.

   Friday: If you are planning on heading home for the weekend, travel
   will be a breeze. Anticipate a mixture of sun and high thin clouds
   along with warm temperatures climbing again into the mid-upper 70s.

   Friday Night: Overall it will be partly cloudy and comfortable.
   Temperatures are only going to fall into the mid-upper 50s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday: There will be increasing amounts of clouds and temperatures
   maximizing between 75-80 degrees. There is a slight chance for showers
   after dark. Conditions will, however, remain dry through the afternoon
   making it a perfect day to watch LSCs soccer teams play at home
   against Thomas College, womens starting at 1pm and mens at 3pm.

   Sunday: Expect mostly cloudy skies and off and on showers as well as
   slightly cooler temperatures rising into the lower 70s.

   Monday: The first official day of fall of 2002, will feel like it
   should. Skies will gradually clear and temperatures will raise right
   around the average between 65-70 degrees.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Summer just does not seem to want to give up and is going to stick
   around until its end on the 23rd. An area of high pressure positioned
   over the top of us the past couple of days has pushed to the east of
   New England today changing the flow to southerly. Above average air
   into the 70s to near 80 will settle into the Northeast through
   Saturday, because of that particular wind direction. The warm air on
   the backside of this high is also what is ahead of a developing storm
   system in the heart of the country. The storm system is going to
   weaken on its easterly trajectory and introduce clouds on Friday and
   Saturday and showers on Sunday. By the time Monday rolls around and
   fall begins temperatures will drop, near the average of 66 degrees and
   conditions will slowly dry.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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