Expires:200209262000;;311898
FPUS51 KBTV 260734
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-262000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
340 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

.TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY THROUGH LATE MORNING. RAIN...DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF
RAIN NEAR 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE
LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID
60S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE MID
40S AND HIGH IN THE MID 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 260657
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH REMNANTS OF
ISIDORE AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TS ISIDORE MOVING NE ACRS EASTERN CONUS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
ALSO...NOTICING S/W AND ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY ACRS CENTRAL CANADA
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC
FRNT IS DRAWING ISIDORE NORTH INTO MISS VALLEY. AT 7H/5H AVN
INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF ISIDORE
BASED ON VAPOR TRENDS AND EVENING RAOB DATA. ETA WAS SLIGHTLY TOO
FAR WEST WITH THE CENTER. ALSO...AVN INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NORTHERN CONUS...THEREFORE WL
LEAN TOWARD IN THIS PACKAGE. SATL PICS CONTINUE TO SHOW CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CORRELATES WELL WITH THE 40
PERCENT 500-100MB LAYER RH VALUE OFF THE AVN. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
SHOW PRECIP SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. AVN QPF FIELDS...HAVE DONE WELL IN
PREDICTING THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE SO FAR
ASSOCIATED WITH ISIDORE.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AS ISIDORE
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVES INTO THE MISS VALLEY. 850-700MB AND
500-100MB LAYER MOISTURE PROGS SHOW A STRONG NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT
ACRS THE CWA TODAY. I WL MENTION MSTLY CLDY SOUTHERN CWA AND PC
NORTH. TEMPS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. 850MB TEMPS AND
850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD AVN AND ETA HAVE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE. ETA HAS THE
MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION SITTING AND
SPINNING ACRS GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AVN INDICATES MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS PICKS SYSTEM UP AND MOVES IT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE
AVN ON THIS SYSTEM I WL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN. THE SYSTEM WL WEAKEN
QUICKLY OVER LAND AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WL ALSO HELP TO
ELONGATE THE MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THIS ENERGY SLIDES ALONG
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. ALSO...WITH LIMITED SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS...FEEL PROGGED SFC PRES ARE
TOO LOW. (994MB NEAR ALB BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE AVN IS A BIT OVER
DONE) HOWEVER...STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ACRS CWA...I
WL CONTINUE TO MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL AVN IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE
WITH LLVL FORCING ACRS REGION BECAUSE OF SFC PRES BEING TOO STRONG
AND LIMITED ULVL SUPPORT. 850MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS I WL MENTION TEMPS ONLY IN THE
50S/60S.

SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF FLATTENS ACRS EASTERN CONUS AND CAA
DEVELOPS ON NW SFC FLOW. I WL MENTION A CHANCE OF MORNING LEFTOVER
-RW EASTERN CWA SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND SUPPORT TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S HIGHER TERRAIN TO 60S CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SFC COLD FRNT DROPS ACRS OUR CWA SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACRS REGION SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. SUNDAY NITE...SKIES WL BECOME CLR AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S MTN VALLEYS TO MID 30S
ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 260243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002

UPDATED ZONES ISSUED FOR A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUDINESS A BIT AND CORRESPONDINGLY
ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP 2 TO 3 DEGREES ALL ZONES. THURSDAY
MAY TURN OUT ALSO A BIT CLOUDIER AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED BY CURRENT SATL IMAGERY AND MAV MOS
TEMPS FROM 18Z AVN MODEL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECASTS
STILL MATCH WELL WITH LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ISADORE.

...DISCUSSION TEXT FROM 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES TO BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THRU THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS FROM ISIDORE ALREADY STARTING TO
MOVE IN ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ON THE THIN
SIDE...SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING AREAS
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST AND
EATSERN VT OVERNIGHT...AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL (FORMERLY AVN MODEL) FOR THIS FCST. NEW 12Z GLOBAL
MODEL RUN NOW HOLDS OFF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN VT.

FOR FRIDAY...GLOBAL/UKMET/CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS NOW COMING ITO
LINE WITH THE TRACK ON THE REMAINS OF ISIDORE...WHICH TAKES IT
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY
ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS MOVE THE REMAINS OF ISIDORE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

REMAINS OF ISIDORE WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH/BELL






FXUS61 KBTV 251917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002

IN THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES TO BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THRU THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS FROM ISIDORE ALREADY STARTING TO
MOVE IN ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ON THE THIN
SIDE...SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING AREAS
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST AND
EATSERN VT OVERNIGHT...AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL (FORMERLY AVN MODEL) FOR THIS FCST. NEW 12Z GLOBAL
MODEL RUN NOW HOLDS OFF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN VT.

FOR FRIDAY...GLOBAL/UKMET/CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS NOW COMING ITO
LINE WITH THE TRACK ON THE REMAINS OF ISIDORE...WHICH TAKES IT
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY
ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS MOVE THE REMAINS OF ISIDORE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

REMAINS OF ISIDORE WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z
SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

749
ASUS51 KBTV 260905
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-261000-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 52 51 97 CALM 30.26S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 48 48 100 CALM 30.32S FOG
MORRISVILLE FOG 47 47 100 CALM 30.30S VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 48 46 93 CALM 30.29S
RUTLAND CLOUDY 52 46 82 SE6 30.27F
SPRINGFIELD FOG 48 47 96 CALM 30.31S VSB 3/4
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 51 50 96 CALM 30.26S
$$

______KEY______
VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                   12:00 PM, Wednesday September 25, 2002
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Adam Gautie
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   This Afternoon: Mostly sunny and above average temperatures for this
   time of the year. The average high for today is 63, but todays highs
   are expected to reach around 70. Winds will be light and variable.

   Tonight: Crystal clear early with patchy dense fog forming in the
   valleys late, lows should fall to around 44. Winds will be light and
   variable.

   Thursday: Another perfect day with light winds and plenty of sunshine,
   maybe a few clouds here and there. Highs will be in the low 70s.

   Thursday Night: Remaining mostly clear early with increasing
   cloudiness late. Lows will be in the mid 40s and winds will remain
   light and variable.

                             Extended Forecast

   Friday: Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers later in the
   day. Cooler with highs only reaching in the low to mid 60s.

   Saturday: Steady rain early becoming scattered with showers through
   out the afternoon. Highs will remain in the low 60s.

   Sunday: Mostly cloudy early with clearing conditions during the day.
   It will become more fall-like and seasonable with highs struggling to
   reach above 60.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Two more perfect days are ahead for our region. Above average
   temperatures are expected to run around 10 degrees above normal. Winds
   will remain light and variable as high pressure is expected to pass
   through the northeast kingdom today. The next problem will probably be
   in the form of remnants from tropical storm Isidore now located
   roughly 300 miles southeast of New Orleans. As high pressure moves of
   the New England coast left over rain from Isidore should move into our
   area sometime early in the weekend. Which may be a good thing
   considering the average September rainfall is 3.40 inches and so far
   this month we have only received 1.73 inches continuing a drought from
   the past few months. This rain probably will be light, but should help
   to increase the rain total closer to the monthly average. Sunday we
   will see more seasonable highs with temperatures only reaching into
   the upper 50s to lower 60s.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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