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SKIVT-L  September 2002, Week 4

SKIVT-L September 2002, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 22 Sep 2002 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (295 lines)

Expires:200209222000;;243354
FPUS51 KBTV 220801
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002



VTZ003-004-006>008-010-222000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGH
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 40 TO 45 AND HIGH 60 TO 65.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 40S AND HIGH 60 TO 65.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 35 TO 40 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 220841
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

SHWRS IN THE FCST FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS OR SO AS MOIST AIRMASS RMNS IN
PLACE ACRS FA. CDFNT WL MOVE THRU RGN LATE TONITE/EARLY MONDAY...
AFTER WHICH TIME DRIER AIR WL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO RGN.

WEAK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN VT. IT STRETCHES FROM SW TO NE ACRS THE
STATE...AND WL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY OR
PERHAPS RETROGRADING A BIT TDY BEFORE WASHING OUT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...BUT MORE ARE LIFTING
NEWRD FROM SRN TIER OF NYS....SO WL KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHWRS IN FCST
ALL DAY TDY FOR ALL ZONES FROM CHMPLN VLY EASTWARD. SOME BRKS OF SUN
PSBL DURING PM IN SRN VT...BUT MSTLY CLDY SHUD COVER IT. FOR ST LWR
VLY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF DAY. SOME SUNSHINE THIS AM WL
GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AND CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATER TDY.

CDFNT WL MOVE ACRS FA TONITE...ROUGHLY BTWN 06Z AND 12Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS THE RGN. WITH PW'S OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN PLACE ACRS THE
FA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPCT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE SEVERAL HRS OF
RAIN OVRNITE IN ADVANCE OF...AND ALG THE FRONT. BEST CHC FOR SEEING
TSRA WL BE IN NRN NYS. NOTED THAT SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE NRN NYS IN
SLITE RISK FOR TDY.

MON/TUE: ETA/AVN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN HOW FAST THEY MOVE FRONT
EAST OF FA...AND CONSEQUENTLY WITH THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO
THE FA. AVN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR THAN
ETA. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE. WITH FLOW ALOFT REMAINING
SOUTHWESTERLY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CLEARING IS
SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OVER ERN PTN FA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH FCST OF
PRTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR ST LWR VLY MON...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT CLDS TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF DAY ALG WITH CHC FEW MORNING SHWRS IN ERN VT. MORE
CLDS MON NITE AND PERHAPS INTO TUES FOR ERN ZONES...WITH CLR TO P/C
SKIES EXPECTED WEST.

EXTENDED: HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST.
MODELS OFFERING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS TO THU/FRI PERIOD...SO
THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS






FXUS61 KBTV 220100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
900 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002

WEAKENING FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL VT THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
SCATTERED ALONG IT. BTV RECEIVED 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. A FEW CG
LTG STRIKES EARLIER THIS EVENING IN LAKE GEORGE REGION. THESE CELLS
HAVE WEAKENED. PLUME OF 1.7+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (> 200% OF
NORMAL) TO REMAIN ALONG THIS DISSPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS GOING THERE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE, BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN NRN NY. LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL MAKE FOR A SOUPY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP. RUC VSBY
ALGORITHM SHOWING VSBY BELOW 0.25 MI AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN VT AND MESHES WITH LAMP/MOS OUTPUTS. WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO
THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREAS
WILL HAVE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION NOTED IN THE MODELS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN NY. MAIN ACTION WILL BE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY REACHING BTV EARLY MON MORNING. OTHER THAN
REDEFINING SHOWER THREAT, FOG AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT, NO CHANGES
NEEDED BEYOND THAT.

.BTV...NONE.

SISSON






FXUS61 KBTV 211829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
229 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002

1ST WK CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON SUN. 2ND...STRONGER...CF
TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ON SUN...THEN ACRS THE
FA ON SUN NITE. HI PRESS TO BUILD IN ACRS THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. UPR
TROF TO SWEEP ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON MON NITE AND TUE.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...THEN WK WAA FOR SUN.
GOOD CAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON...THEN WK WAA FOR
MON NITE/TUE. NOSE OF H85 JET TO MOVE UP ACRS THE FA LATE ON SUN AND
INTO EARLY ON SUN NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE
ACRS THE FA ON LATE TONITE RIGHT THRU EARLY ON SUN NITE AND AGAIN
LATE ON MON NITE AND INTO TUE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS
THE FA TONITE THRU SUN NITE...THEN LOW-LVL DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS
THE FA ON MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON MON NITE AND
TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON SUN AND MON
AFTERNOONS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA LATE ON SUN ACRS
NRN NY STATE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND ON SUN...
THEN GOOD MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON SUN NITE. MID-LVL DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE
AROUND 1.5" ACRS THE FA TONITE THRU SUN NITE...THEN BLO AN INCH ON
MON.

NOTED FA IN SPC SLIGHT RISK OF SVR ACRS NY STATE ON SUN/SUN NITE (GEN
TSTMS ELSEWHERE THEN AND TONITE). CAPES TO BE AOB 600 J/KG ACRS THE
FA TONITE...THEN BLO 1000 J/KG ON SUN...AND AOB 200 J/KG ON SUN NITE.
SAT PIX SHOW A FAIR AMT OF CLDS ACRS THE FA ATTM. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC
SHOWS SOME SHRA MOVING NE ACRS NY STATE AND SRN CANADA AS WELL. HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY LTG STRIKES THOUGH. CURRENT AREAL PCPN DEPICTION IN
LATEST MODEL DATA APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE...SO HAVE CUT POPS BACK TO
CHC/SCT FOR TONITE ACRS THE FA. RUC VSBY DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY
SHOWED SOME FOG POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA AS WELL TONITE...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON THAT FOR NOW AS NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PCPN WILL
BE TONITE. INSTABILITY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SVR
WX ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF CLD COVER EXPECTED THEN. WILL THEREFORE
DISCOUNT SPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN ACRS THE
WRN/CENTRAL ZONES ON SUN AND CUT POPS BACK TO SCT ACRS THE ERN/SRN
ZONES. LIKELY POPS SEEM LIKE A GOOD IDEA FA-WIDE ON SUN NITE WITH
STRONGER CFROPA EXPECTED THEN. MON CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
TRANSITION DAY TO DRIER WX ACRS THE FA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING -SHRA
ACRS THE ERN ZONES EARLY ON MON...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST FOR THEN
FOR NOW.

INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HI PRESS TO BE IN CONTROL OF
OUR WX FOR TUE/WED...SO DRY FCST FOR THEN. CFROPA EXPECTED NOW ON THU
OR FRI...SO CHC OF SHRA LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA FOR THEN FOR NOW. MORE
HI PRESS (AND DRY WX) EXPECTED ON SAT.

WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 PM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

680
ASUS51 KBTV 221005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    64  64 100 CALM      30.01S FOG
MONTPELIER     FOG       67  66  97 CALM      30.07S VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE    FOG       64  64 100 CALM      30.05S VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     65  64  97 CALM      30.02S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    66  66 100 CALM      30.04R
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       68  67  96 CALM      30.04R VSB 1/2
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  68  67  96 CALM      30.03S FOG
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     12 P.M Saturday September 21 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Paul Gebelein
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Today: It will be a wonderful day for the Lyndon Institute football
   game and the LSC Men's rugby game. It will become partly sunny this
   afternoon and warm for one more day. Temperatures will be 78 to 82.
   Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

   Saturday Night: It will become mostly coudy with scattered showers and
   thunderstorms moving across the area as a cold front will be moving
   in. It will be warm and muggy with low temperatures 60 to 65.
   Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

   Sunday: Sunday will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks possible. There
   will be a chance of showers at any time during the day. It will muggy
   with high temperatures 72 to 78. Southwest winds shifting northwest
   late in the day.

   Sunday Night: Expect Cloudy skies with a chance of a few showers.
   There will be areas of dense fog, so exercise caution will traveling.
   Lows 55 to 60.

                             Extended Forecast

   Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks possible. There will
   also be a chance of showers. It will be coller with highs in the mid
   60's

   Tuesday: Partly Sunny and nice. High temperatures 65 to 70

   Wednesday: Partly sunny with highs getting back close to 70.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Summer just doesn't want to give up yet. Today will be the last warm
   day for a while. Expect highs over 80. Tonight and tommorrow rain will
   move in ending our recent warm spell. Next week expect high
   temperatures right were they should be for this time of year, in the
   mid 60's. Down in the tropics. Hurricane Isidore is about 75 miles
   west northwest of the the western tip of Cuba. Maximum sustained winds
   are 115 mph. This puts it at a category 3 hurricane. The storm is
   expected to move west brushing the Mexican coast and slowly
   strengthen. Also in the tropics, Subtropical storm Kyle is located 770
   west of Bermuda. Top winds are 45mph. This storm is expected to move
   north and slowly become more tropical and possibly strengthen into a
   hurricane. Have a great day everyone.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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