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SKIVT-L  October 2002, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2002, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 16 Oct 2002 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (294 lines)

Expires:200210162000;;730713
FPUS51 KBTV 160742
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-162000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
342 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002

.TODAY...RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING...THEN HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOW AROUND 40. NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WEST WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35.
.SATURDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. HIGH IN THE 40S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH IN THE 40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 160636
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
236 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002

RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...IN RESPONSE TO WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  GOING
FORECAST HAS SITUATION WELL COVERED WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR TODAY
AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONGEST 850 AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.  ONLY TWEAK TO THIS WILL BE TO
ADD TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND FEEL IT WILL BE SPREAD
OUT OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO NOT NEED A FLOOD WATCH.  RIVER AND
LAKE LEVELS WILL DEFINITELY RISE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.  TEMPERATURES
MAY GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO HAVE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AND WILL MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST.  OTHERWISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.  FEEL THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30
TO LOWER 40 RANGE.

SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY.  THIS SHOULD AID IN SOME DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THIS TENDS
TO WARM THIS AREA UP MORE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO WHILE MOST PLACES REMAIN IN THE 40S...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOWER
50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING WILL TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY.  THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 FEET.  1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONDITIONS IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
RAIN.  SO WILL MENTION SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.  PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MAIN DYNAMICS STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION.  850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAISE SNOW LEVELS.  SO WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIFFERENTIATE THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR SUNDAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY.  DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS MORE DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 AM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.







FXUS61 KBTV 160044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
845 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

CRNT/SHORT TERM: TMPS HAVE DROPPED TO NR LOW LVLS FOR THE NGT AS
INC/THKNG CLDS WL ACT AS BLANKET AND KEEPS TMPS STEADY OR RISE A
DEG/TWO...ESP WHERE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DVLP BFR DAWN ACRS ST LWRNC/
ADRNDKS/SRN VT.

00Z SFC ANALYSIS BEST MATCHES UP WITH GFS (AVN) AND THUS TIMING OF
AVN USED IN SLGT TWEAKING OF ZONES THAT HAD MIS-MATCHED POPS VS.
WORDING FOR LKLY/CHC OR LKLY/CAT. DVLPG INVERTED SFC TROF WL BRG
ABT LKLY POPS INTO ST LWRNC/ADRNDKS AS WELL AS SRN VT DESPITE S-N
MVMNT RATHER THAN SW-NE.

CHGS: CLD COVER...COLDEST TMPS ERLY THEN SLOWLY RISING AND
CONSISTENCY BTWN POPS AND WORDING.

WORKS AVBL. ZONES SHORTLY.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW






FXUS61 KBTV 152055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

WAVELENGTH OF TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS STILL
SHORTENING...WHILE STRONG JET ENERGY STILL DIGGING NTO THE TROF FROM
BOTH RIO GRANDE VLY AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  ENTIRE UPR TROF IS
STILL A BIT PROGRESSIVE.  THE S/WV IN ALABAMA STILL LOOKS TO BE
RETAINING CLSD CHARACTER A BIT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND
SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW.  EXPECT A TRACK HUGGING
THE EAST COAST...BUT HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY BE DISPLACED INLAND
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE H7 LOW WHERE FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED AND
HIGH P.W. IS BEING SQUEEZED BY LAST MINUTE THICKNESS FALLS.

HAVE ADVANCED PCPN TIMING TO FASTEST GFS.  AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTD THRU THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LOCALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.
CONSIDERING LACK OF ANY RECENT SGFNT RAINFALL...FF GUIDANCE VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...AND RFC RIVER GUIDANCEWHICH
ONLY BRINGS RIVER LEVELS TO A COUPLE FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM.  PLAN TO ISSUE AN ESF DISCUSSING
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT...BUT PROBABLY
WITHOUT ACCUMULATION.

COMPARED TO THIS SFC STORM...OTHER SYSTEMS APPEAR WEAK THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...WE WILL
BE STUCK IN A MEAN TROF WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT TWO S/WVS WILL SWING TOWARD US FROM THE OH VLY ON FRI AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH LMTD MSTR EXPCT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
AMOUNT TO ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH WATER EQUIVALENT AT BEST.
SOME TEMPORARY DIURNAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SO IT WILL SEEM THAT AUTUMN IS TRANSITIONING
QUICKLY TO WINTER.

.BTV...NONE.

BELL





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

820
ASUS51 KBTV 160905
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-161000-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    45  35  68 S7        30.01F
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  36  82 S9        30.09S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    42  36  79 VRB5      30.06S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     37  33  85 CALM      30.07S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    45  36  70 SE12      30.03F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    38  31  76 CALM      30.09S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    46  38  73 E7        30.00F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     12:00PM, Tuesday October 15, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tuesday: This afternoons conditions will be great to watch The LSC
   Womans Soccer team play at home against Green Mountain under mostly
   sunny skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
   with highs in the lower 50s and winds will be from the south at 5-10
   mph.

   Tuesday Night: Clouds increase as well as the winds from the south
   that will gust between 5-15 mph. Low temperatures will be in the lower
   40s.

   Wednesday: Rain is likely. Temperatures will be in the mid-upper 40s
   and winds will be breezy from the east at 10-20 mph.

   Wednesday Night: Rain continues, falling heavy at times. Temperatures
   will be in the lower 40s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Thursday: A chance for rain during the morning hours otherwise mostly
   cloudy. Highs will be in the upper 40s.

   Friday: Chance for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers
   during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Temperatures will
   range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

   Saturday: More clouds than sun. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   We will see one more day of nice weather until cool and damp
   conditions settle in tomorrow. A coastal storm now developing in the
   Southeast is going to track up the eastern seaboard through tomorrow.
   Winds and rain will buffet the immediate coastline while just rain
   will threaten Vermont where up to 1-2 total inches of rain could fall.
   The height of the storm will occur during the overnight, meaning that
   the heaviest rain will fall during that time. By Thursday morning the
   storm will have tracked into the Canadian Maritimes leaving New
   England cool and cloudy with only isolated morning showers. In the
   meantime, go out and enjoy todays beautiful, sunny weather before all
   the rain moves in.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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April 2010, Week 5
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April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
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