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SKIVT-L  November 2002, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2002, Week 1

Subject:

interesting avalanche discussion . . .

From:

Todd Fisher <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 6 Nov 2002 17:45:31 +0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (97 lines)

The Tuckerman Ravine Avalanche advisory for today is pretty interesting.  It
goes into detail about possible situations based on wind direction and
different forms of precipitation.  It's clear that the avalanche threat
becomes much greater with quick changes in wind, precip and temp. . .

I'm really just looking to keep some ski related stuff around during this
political discussion.  O'Brien lost, all is well in MA.

http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/index.html

***** WINTER STORM THROUGH THIS EVENING--BE PREPARED FOR AN INTERESTING DAY
PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW**** Winter sure seems to be establishing
itself in the mountains! SNOW, SNOW, SNOW!!(Perhaps a bit of Rain?) Be
prepared and well practiced in snow stability assessment, travel in
avalanche terrain, and avalanche rescue.

This is an early season GENERAL ADVISORY. Use of the 5 scale avalanche
rating system will begin when conditions warrant. Until then new advisories
will be issued as needed. We are getting very close to using the U.S. 5
scale danger rating, but realize avalanches are occuring even though we are
still issuing 'General Advisories'. It is important to remember that until
we have more widespread snowfields, and therefore avalanche danger, we will
continue to issue General Avalanche Advisories due to the isolated hazard.
Check tuckerman.org frequently as we move through November and certainly
check the latest avalanche advisory before heading into avalanche terrain.

Snow began last night on the summit of Mount Washington around 10:00 pm with
SE and S winds. Precipitation has slowly intensified through the evening
hours and the NWS is predicting near 5 inches for the mountains before the
change over to rain this afternoon. As this occurs expect the winds to shift
from the S-SE to the NE. At 4 am the summit temperature was 15 F and
currently stands at 19 F. High summit temperatures are anticipated to reach
25 F as warm air moves into the region later today. It appears the higher
summits may be spared the rain the rest of us will receive. As this system
moves out to sea colder air will come in changing rain back to snow for an
additional inch or two this evening. It is difficult to say whether
avalanche start zones from 5000ft down will receive liquid precipitation or
stay frozen, in the form of snow, all the way through the storm cycle. If in
the mountains today expect snow, rain, light winds and then high winds.

Some of the snow that lingered into yesterday morning generated some natural
avalanche activity in a few isolated pockets, namely Left gully, the Chute,
and Central gully in Huntington. As mentioned in advisories over the past
week these snowfields have been growing and yesterdays avalanche activity
significantly increased the size of what will be the next cycles 'base'. 5
inches are expected through the morning hours, but will come in from the SE
and S which will limit the amount of loading in the ravines. However some
loading will occur and as the day progresses snow will become heavier
creating a possible unstable, 'inverted' snowpack. As temperatures increase
heavier snow will deposit over the lighter snow which fell during the past
several hours. As temperatures rise instability should increase and if we do
get rain in 'the current' avalanche terrain instability should increase
rapidly. This triggers the old saying "if it rains in avalanche terrain go
home". Although snowfields with southerly aspects are quite small a sun
crust from yesterdays radiation may create some small unique instability
problems. Expect some crossloading in the Ravines and loading of northern
aspects with these S-SE winds, but they shouldn't load the snowfields of
most concern as a W or NW wind would. Again, 'some' of these snowfields are
Left Gully, the Chute, isolated areas growing beween rocks on the Headwall
of Tuckerman, and the E and NE side of the summit cone. In Huntington
Ravine, Central, the top of O'Dells, and the upper sections of Yale gully
should generate the most concern. These snowfields, as well as, exposed ice
are the most likely areas for possible avalanche activity during the next
series of weather makers. Ice develops rapidly each fall in both Ravines and
often act as an excellent sliding layer for avalanches to occur.

Be aware that a small slab or sluff can be very dangerous. This is
particularly true in the steep gullies and slopes of Tuckerman and
Huntington Ravines for early season ice climbers. As a climber picks their
way through a route they will usually cross small pockets of snow. Often
this snow has deposited over blue ice, making for a poor bond at the
interface. Consider this ahead of time and place protection before crossing
suspect slopes. It doesn't take much snow to knock you off your feet and
depending how high you are this could be a considerable problem. Remember if
the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's large enough to
avalanche. Approach early season snowfields with skepticism and be
conservative while on them, near them, or in their runout zones. As always,
this bulletin is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in
avalanche terrain. It should be used along with your own snow stability
assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, and skill in reading
mountain weather's effect on the snowpack.

Pull out your beacon and practice, ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!! Review
your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up
for an avalanche course. We will have all the avalanche courses offered in
the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org very soon


_________________________________________________________________
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