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SKIVT-L  February 2003, Week 3

SKIVT-L February 2003, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 15 Feb 2003 06:50:21 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (239 lines)

Expires:200302152100;;251199
FPUS51 KBTV 150749
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-152100-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
400 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 29
BELOW...

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY COLD. HIGH ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST
WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR AND BITTER COLD. LOW 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW. WIND
BECOMING CALM.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD. HIGH ZERO TO
5 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER WITH
A HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 10 ABOVE AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 10 ABOVE AND HIGH 25 TO 30.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOW 10 TO 15 AND HIGH
25 TO 30.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150640
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2003

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LT WINDS ACROSS AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH TEMPS ALL AREAS WELL BELOW OLD MAN ZERO. COLDEST READINGS
ACROSS FAVORED N NY ZONES WHERE KMSS AND KSLK APPROACHING -30F.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NO REAL CHANGES FROM CURRENT THINKING THAT TODAY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE COLDEST 24 HRS OR THE WINTER. WITH 1045
ARCTIC HIGH N OF LK SUPERIOR PROGGED TO BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE
NW. AS STATED EARLIER...THIS TYPE OF SETUP PRODUCES SHALLOW
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...AND THIS SHOWS UP
NICELY IN THE 1000-950 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES TODAY. THUS COLDEST
MAX TEMPS IN THESE LOCNS TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH WARMER ELSEWHERE
EITHER WITH HUGE SYNOPTIC INVERSION AT 3K FT. AT THIS TIME WILL OPT
TO GO WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL AREAS THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT
WIND INCREASES TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS AND TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW
ZERO. ALL AND ALL AN UNPLEASANT WX DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT AND WITH CLR SKIES AND A FULL 12 HRS OF
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...SHOULD SEE VERY LOW MINS. HAVE
CONTINUED IDEA OF -20 TO -30 IN THE CVLY...TO AS LOW AS -40 AT
KSLK...PERHAPS LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TEMPS TO ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH
STILL NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH LT WINDS AND NO APPRECIABLE ADVECTION OF
ANY SORT. ANOTHER COLD ONE SUN NT AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MINS MARKEDLY HERE. BY MONDAY A
SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH SFC SYSTEM MAKING A CLOSE CALL TO
SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WILL GO MORE CLOUDS AND LEAVE OUT
PRECIP...ESP E OF GREENS AS THIS TYPE OF SETUP ADVECTS MARINE BNDRY
LYR NORTHWESTWARD...AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MAKING IN
THERE.

MONDAY NT ONWARDS...MODERATING TREND COMMENCES IN FULL FORCE WITH
COASTAL SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF REGION MON NT. WEAK 850-500 TROF AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ARGUES FOR MC CONDS ON TUE WITH CHC SHSN...THOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS RATHER BENIGN. AFTERWARDS PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARCTIC AIR RETREATS
NORTHWARD...SOMETHING THAT HAS NOT BEEN COMMON THIS WINTER.
SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO GET MORE ACTIVE. MIXED SOLNS OFFERED BY GUIDANCE
ON SYSTEM PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA DURING FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CLEARLY SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF FEATURE HERE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON P-TYPE...WITH EXTENDED GFS RUNS OFFERING WARM
THICKNESS VALUES AND A RAIN SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE...AND WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE EXTENDED UNCHANGED AT
THIS TIME.

.BTV...WND CHILL ADVSY THIS MORNING NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001-012.

JMG







FXUS61 KBTV 150155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
855 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

SKC ACRS FA AND WL RMN CLR AS STG ARCTIC HI BLDS SWD KEEPING CLDS S
OF FA.  DONT THINK MINS WL BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NGT AS NLY GRAD
INCRS OVRNGT.  THIS SHD SERVE TO SLOW THE TEMP FALL OVRNGT.  UPDATED
FCST FOR CLR TNGT AND EXPANDED RNG ON HIGH END.

COLDEST DAY OF THE WINTER LKLY ON SAT ACRS CHMPLN VLY AND PSBLY ST
LAW VLY AS ARCTIC HI BLDS NW OF RGN WITH SHLW COLD AIR DRAINING DOWN
THE VLYS.  THIS IS CLASSIC SYNOP SET UP FOR REAL COLD AMS N VLYS AS
LL COLD AIR STRENTHENS UNDER INFLUENCE OF STG ARCTIC HI TO THE N AND
BTV/MSS MAY BE COLDEST IN FA.  TMPS WL BE SLOW TO RECOVER SAT AND
LKLY RMNG BLO ZERO ALL DAY W OF N GREEN MTNS WITH "MILDEST" RDGS IN
CT VLY.  WCHILL ADVSY MAY BE NEEDED SAT N ZNS AS N WNDS 15 MPH AND
SUBZERO TMPS CREATE 20-30 BLO CHILL.

RECORD MINS FOR SAT 2/15        RECORD MINS FOR SUN 2/16

BURLINGTON.......-26/1943       BURLINGTON.......-26/1943
ST JOHNSBURY.....-28/1987       ST JOHNSBURY.....-43/1943
MONTPELIER.......-14/1987       MONTPELIER.......-13/1987
MASSENA..........-22/1987       MASSENA..........-12/1959

.BTV...NONE.

KJC





FXUS61 KBTV 141953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

FLURRIES ENDED IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND SUN HAS COME BACK OUT.
TEMPS UP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MOST PART...AND EVEN LOWER
TEENS IN RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD.

COLD TEMPS ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT NOTHING NEW THERE.  COLD
CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO DRAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.  HUMIDITY LEVELS PRETTY LOW
WITH ONLY SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT A
COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND TOMORROW NIGHT A COUPLE
DEGREES COLDER STILL. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
TONIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR WINDSPEEDS TO DROP AND
GOOD RADIATION TO HELP OUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY CENTERED OVER
FORECAST AREAS FOR ALMOST IDEAL RADIATION.  LEFT IN 10 DEGREE TEMP
RANGES...WITH RADIATION AND THIS KIND OF COLD THERE WILL BE SOME
PRETTY GOOD RANGES.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STAY FAR TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING US DRY.  NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PASS BY
TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMING TEMPS AS WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NEXT FRIDAY...GFS HAS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER CANADIAN
MODEL..ENSEMBLES...AND NEWER AVIATION TAKE IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WITH FORECAST
THICKNESS INDICATING SNOW. FOR NOW INTRODUCED CHANCE SNOW WITH FRIDAY
FORECAST...AND WE'LL SEE HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES.

RECORD MINS FOR SAT 2/15        RECORD MINS FOR SUN 2/16

BURLINGTON.......-26/1943       BURLINGTON.......-26/1943
ST JOHNSBURY.....-28/1987       ST JOHNSBURY.....-43/1943
MONTPELIER.......-14/1987       MONTPELIER.......-13/1987
MASSENA..........-22/1987       MASSENA..........-12/1959

.BTV...NONE.

HANSON




   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

057
ASUS51 KBTV 151112
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-151200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY   -14 -19  79 CALM      30.37R
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY   -16 -21  78 CALM      30.26R
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY   -26 -32  72 CALM      30.30R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A    -23 -29  73 CALM      30.28R
RUTLAND        PTCLDY   -11 -18  70 CALM      30.26R
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY   -16 -20  82 CALM      30.28R
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    -6 -10  83 S3        30.21R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2007, Week 5
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