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SKIVT-L  March 2003, Week 3

SKIVT-L March 2003, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 15 Mar 2003 06:50:05 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (316 lines)

Expires:200303152200;;842850
FPUS51 KBTV 150845
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-152200-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
345 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
MORNING. HIGH IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 20S. LIGHT WIND.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 45 TO 50. SOUTH WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. LOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH NEAR 50.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 25 TO 30 AND
HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
30S AND HIGH IN THE MID 40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
232 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003

HI PRESS TO BUILD OUT TO THE EAST OF THE FA TODAY. TROF TO MOVE ACRS
THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN CANADA SUN/SUN NITE AND THEN ACRS THE FA
ON MON/MON NITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE SE USA TONITE THRU SUN...
THEN OUT TO SEA ON SUN NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FA FROM SE CANADA ON TUE. S/W (AS SEEN IN H2O VAP IMAGERY)
TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW EARLY TODAY.

NO USEFUL RUC DATA AVAILABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. GOOD H85 WAA TO TAKE
PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU SUN...THEN WK CAA FOR SUN NITE/MON. H85
TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA BY EARLY ON SUN. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TONITE...THEN
AGAIN LATER ON SUN AND INTO SUN NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE
FA EARLY TODAY...THEN AGAIN LATER ON SUN NITE. GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE
NRN FA ON SUN/SUN NITE AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA ON MON. SOME MID-LVL
MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE
AROUND 0.3" TODAY AND AROUND 0.5" ON SUN THRU MON.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SHSN MOVING DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW
ATTM. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE LOW-LVLS ACRS NE/NC VT MAY
STILL BE TOO DRY FOR THIS PCPN TO REACH THE SFC YET. WILL HANG ONTO
SCT POPS FOR SOME -SHSN ACRS MOST ZONES FOR EARLY TODAY (WITH S/W
PASSAGE) AND HANDLE ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF SN WITH THE STF AFTER
ZONE ISSUANCE. BEST CHC FOR ANY LIQUID PCPN THRU TUE APPEARS TO BE ON
MON WITH TROF PASSAGE THEN. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A -SHRA
AHEAD OF THIS SYS BY LATE ON SUN NITE AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SOME MORE CLDS ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE FOR NOW.

T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M30S-L40S TODAY AND IN THE 40S ON SUN. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE U20-L30S TONITE AND IN THE U30S-L40S ON SUN NITE.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SUN THRU MON...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR ICE JAMS THEN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE GOOD. THIS EVENT MAY JUST END UP FURTHER
RIPENING OUR SNOWPACK.

NO CHANGES TO THE WED THRU FRI FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO CLEAN UP SOME
BOGUS IFPS WORDING ON WED. WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP
BY 4 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 150336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

UPDATED ZONES ISSUED. RAISED POPS 10 PERCENT IN NORTHERN NY BASED
ON LATEST OBS, CANADIAN RADAR, SATL, AND SHORT RANGE MODELS. ALL
SHOW INCREASING RISK OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
EXPECTAMOUNTS TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FOR VT ZONES SINCE SFC DWPTS STILL SHOWING DRIER LOW LVL AIR.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS HAVE ARRESTED ANY TEMPERATURE FALL AND INDICATED
TEMPS NOW STEADY AT THEIR PRESENT LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

PREVIOUS AFD, ISSUED AT 4 PM, FOLLOWS....


THE LAST OF THE COLD FOR A WHILE.

POLAR VORTEX LIFTING OUT TO BE REPLACE BY RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP IN CANADA SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MAYBE AN
INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUD WILL PUT A CAP TO THE TEMPS
WITH EARLY EVENING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FROM BTV WEST TO
NEAR 10 FAR NE.

WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY IN VT BEFORE
NOON, THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 TO 40.

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOOK FOR DECOUPLING EAST OF THE GREENS WITH LOWER TEMPS THERE AND
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY RIDGING AND WSW FLOW SHOULD BRING TEMPS TO 50 MOST
LOCATIONS. IT COULD BE WARMER AS MODELS HAVE A TOUCH TIME WITH WARM
AIR MOVING OVER SNOW COVER, RESULTING IN A MUCH TOO COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER AS EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.


SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, COLDER ON ETA AND SRN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT WITH STRENGTH LOCATION OF EASTERN
CANADA RIDGING AND STRONG STORM OVER THE CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP AND
EXTEND CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THU-FRI, BUT PTYPE MAY BE DIFFERENT IF
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA.

.BTV...NONE.

SISSON/BELL









FXUS61 KBTV 142100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE LAST OF THE COLD FOR A WHILE.

POLAR VORTEX LIFTING OUT TO BE REPLACE BY RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP IN CANADA SLIDING SOUTHEAST ON NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MAYBE AN
INCH OR SO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUD WILL PUT A CAP TO THE TEMPS
WITH EARLY EVENING MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FROM BTV WEST TO
NEAR 10 FAR NE.

WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY IN VT BEFORE
NOON, THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 35 TO 40.

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOOK FOR DECOUPLING EAST OF THE GREENS WITH LOWER TEMPS THERE AND
STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY RIDGING AND WSW FLOW SHOULD BRING TEMPS TO 50 MOST
LOCATIONS. IT COULD BE WARMER AS MODELS HAVE A TOUCH TIME WITH WARM
AIR MOVING OVER SNOW COVER, RESULTING IN A MUCH TOO COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER AS EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.


SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, COLDER ON ETA AND SRN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT WITH STRENGTH LOCATION OF EASTERN
CANADA RIDGING AND STRONG STORM OVER THE CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP AND
EXTEND CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THU-FRI, BUT PTYPE MAY BE DIFFERENT IF
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA.

.BTV...NONE.

SISSON






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

982
ASUS51 KBTV 151108
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT MAR 15 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-151200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 19 18 95 CALM 30.20S FOG
MONTPELIER LGT SNOW 15 13 91 CALM 30.20R FOG
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 15 13 91 CALM 30.20S VSB 3/4
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 15 12 88 CALM 30.20R
RUTLAND CLOUDY 19 16 86 SE9 30.18R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 18 10 71 CALM 30.23R
BENNINGTON N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 30.15S
$$

______KEY______
VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                       5:00PM, Friday March 14, 2003
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Tiffany Yasus
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: The sun will disappear behind the clouds starting early this
   evening. Winds will be light from the west. There is a chance for a
   trace of snow flurries late tonight. Lows will drop down into the
   single digits to near 10 degrees above zero.

   Saturday: The day will have a cloudy beginning, but skies will start
   to clear in the afternoon. Any snow flurries will end by noon. Winds
   will be light from the southwest. Temperatures will reach into the low
   to mid 30's.

   Saturday Night: Partly cloudy skies will prevail. Light winds will be
   from the west at 5 to 10 mph. Lows will be in the upper teens to low
   20's.

   Sunday: With a high pressure system controlling our area, and warm
   temperatures, the day will seem like spring is here. Southerly winds
   will be pumping warm air into the region, raising the temperatures
   into the upper 40's, with some areas in southern VT, hitting the 50
   degree mark. There will be periods of sunshine through the day.
   Overnight lows will be in the upper 20's in areas like Burke Hollow or
   Island Pond, and low 30's elsewhere.

                             Extended Forecast

   Monday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day with breaks of sunshine.
   Highs will be in the mid 40's. Overnight lows will fall into the low
   20's.

   Tuesday: Much like Monday, it will be another cloudy day with highs in
   the mid 40's and lows in the lower 20's.

   Wednesday: Expect mild temperatures through the day with highs in the
   upper 40's. Mostly cloudy skies, with possible rain showers in the
   afternoon. Lows will only drop into the mid 30's.

                            Forecast Discussion

   This may have been the last of the cold temperatures for this winter,
   as an artic air mass is passing through the Northeast. Much milder
   conditions will begin on Saturday with temperatures at or above
   average, which for this time of year is near 37 degrees. This creates
   good news the snow pack will be melting. No significant precipitation
   is expected for the weekend. Although, some rain will make it into our
   region in the middle part of the week. So, it looks like we may be
   saying goodbye to Winter and are welcoming Spring.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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April 2011, Week 3
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March 2011, Week 4
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January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
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December 2010, Week 3
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December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
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October 2010, Week 3
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September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
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July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
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June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
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February 2010, Week 1
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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February 2002, Week 1
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