Expires:200305012000;;825630
FPUS51 KBTV 010906
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
505 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
505 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

.TODAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH
WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW NEAR 50. SOUTH WIND 10
TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...RAIN. HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOW 35 TO 40.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 30 TO 35.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 35 TO 40 AND
HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 40 AND HIGH 55 TO 60.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 010946
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
545 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA ATTM...EXCEPT
SOUTHERN VT ZONES. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY...
EXCEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. SPC HAS THE FCST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEW MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. FEEL
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SEVERE TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA
ARE LOW AT BEST...SO WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK ATTM.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ATTM...THE
LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK REASONABLE. WENT WITH THE GFS MODEL
FOR QPF. NCEP HPC FORECASTERS SUGGESTING THAT TSTMS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM GETTING UP INTO OUR FCST
AREA...SO THE LOWER QPF FROM THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE.

COLD FRONT TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH COLDER
GFS MAV MOS TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE COOLER 3 HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THRU MONDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 010157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
957 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

WILL MAKE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.  TRIED TO ADD A BIT MORE TIMING TO THESE
ZONES AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...LOOKING LIKE WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL...IE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LOOKS ON SCHEDULE AND WILL NOT
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE.  LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION BY MID MORNING AND THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT 18Z RUN
NOW APPEARS TO FOLLOW ETA SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION ENDING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THIS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES NECESSARY FOR
THE LATER PERIODS.

UPDATED ZONES TO BE ISSUED NO LATER THAN 1015 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.







FXUS61 KBTV 302009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

HIGH PRES SLIDING EAST OF FA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLDS ADVANCING INTO
FA FROM WEST WITH DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE. CLDS WL THICKEN OVRNGHT
WITH APRCH OF WRMFNT. BEST LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT WL BE ACRS NRN
TIER OF ZONES LATE TONITE INTO EARLY THURS. MODELS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT RE ONSET TIME OF PCPN. EXPECT CHC RAIN IN ST LWR VLY BY
06Z...BUT NOT IN NE VT UNTIL AFT 09Z. WL GO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
POPS NRN NY...BUT ONLY CHC EAST AND SOUTH. WL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF TSRA FOR ST LWR VLY. GREATEST QPF WITH THE WRMFNT WL BE ACRS
NORTHERNMOST ZONES ALG CAN BORDER...WITH LESSER AMTS SOUTH.

THU/THU NITE: DURING THURSDAY...WRMFNT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF FA
DURING MORNING. BRISK S-SW FLOW DVLPS IN WARM SECTOR. WARM AND
MSTR LADEN AIRMASS FOR LATER AM/PM. PW'S INCR TO ARND 1.30 INCHES.
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WL TRACK ACRS XTRM NRN PTN FA DURING PM HRS...
DRAGGING CDFNT THRU FA LATER PM/NIGHT. ATMOS DESTABILIZES ENOUGH
AHEAD OF CDFNT TO ALLOW FOR CHC TSTRMS AHEAD OF CDNT...ALG WITH
WDSPRD SHWRS.

FRI: MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
PERIOD. GFS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN OUTLIER...DEPRESSING FRONT AND
PCPN FURTHER SOUTH THAN ALL OTHER MODELS. ETA/SEF/UKMET IN SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN TRACK OF SFC WAVE ALG FRONT JUST SOUTH OF FA...
RESULTING IN A HIR CHC OF RAIN. THIS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH OUR
EARLIER FCSTS...AND HAVE ACCEPTED THIS SOLUTION.

EXTENDED: MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WEEKEND WX. HIGH
PRES BUILDING SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY EVENTUALLY WINS THE BATTLE...
SUPPRESSING CDFNT SOUTH INTO MID ATLC STATES. EXCEPT FOR A CHC OF
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SHWRS SAT AM IN SRN ZONES...WEEKEND EXPECTED
TO BE DRY. DEBATABLE AS TO HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE'LL SEE SATURDAY. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH P/C NORTH AND M/CLDY SOUTH. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO
FA SUNDAY PROVIDING PRTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE HOLDS INTO
MONDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF RGN LATE MON/MON NITE. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APRCHS FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY MON NITE...BRINGING CHC RAIN OR
SHWRS TUE INTO WED.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS




   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

769
ASUS51 KBTV 011105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-011200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    48  45  89 SE8       29.97F
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    45  40  82 S7        30.07R
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  43  42  97 VRB3      30.04S FOG
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    52  34  50 SE17G23   30.02S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    50  34  54 S8        30.09S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    57  31  37 VRB7      30.03S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     5:00PM, Wednesday, April 30, 2003
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jesse Vecchione
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight:  Look  for clouds to be on the increase, with the chance of a
   shower  as  dawn approaches. Low temperatures will only fall to around
   40-45.  Winds  will  be  out  of  the  Southwest  and  will pick up in
   intensity as the evening wears on.

   Tomorrow  :  Mostly  cloudy  with widespread showers and thunderstorms
   during the day. High temperatures should easily make it into the upper
   60's, and if the sun gets a chance to break through in your area highs
   there  could  get  into  the  low  70's.  Winds  will  stay out of the
   Southwest at 10-15 mph.

   Tomorrow  Night  : Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue well
   into  the  evening.  Lows  will only drop down to about 45-48 degrees.
   Winds will remain out of the Southwest and will be light.

   Friday: The soggy trend continues with rain likely throughout the day.
   Highs  will climb into the upper 50's over the course of the day. Rain
   will  taper off to scattered showers overnight, with the nighttime low
   settling at 39-44.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday:  Mostly  sunny  skies will begin the weekend, but it will be
   cool  with  highs  only  in  the low 50's. Overnight, clear skies will
   allow  the  low  temperature  to  slide  back a bit further, with lows
   35-39.

   Sunday:  Very  similar  to Saturday's weather with mostly sunny skies,
   but  it  will be a bit warmer during the day with highs reaching 60 in
   most  locations.  Clouds  will move in overnight with lows dropping to
   40-45.

   Monday:  Clouds  will be on the increase and there is a chance of rain
   as  well. High temperautres should climb into the low 60's even with a
   considerable  cloud cover. At night, the rain should continue and lows
   will drop down to about 50.

                            Forecast Discussion

   High pressure, which has been controlling our weather for the past few
   days,  giving  us  sunny skies and seasonable temperatures, is exiting
   the  Northeast  Kingdom at this moment. In its wake, a warm front will
   make  a  run  for  the  North  Country  bringing  with  it some warmer
   temperatures,  but more noticeably, clouds and rain. In addition, some
   decent  thunderstorm  activity  may be seen rumbling around our region
   tomorrow  afternoon. As for the coming weekend, it looks like Canadian
   high  pressure will come and visit us again, giving us more of what we
   saw Monday and Tuesday: Sunny skies and lukewarm temperatures.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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