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SKIVT-L  May 2003, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2003, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 2 May 2003 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (486 lines)

Expires:200305022000;;847724
FPUS51 KBTV 020836
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-022000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
436 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

.TODAY...RAIN. HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WIND AROUND 15
MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW NEAR 30.
.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
ON. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 40 AND HIGH 55 TO 60.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGH NEAR 60.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 020906
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
505 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE MORE BATCH
OF RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY...AS SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING SHRTWV OVER EASTERN OHIO MOVG NEWD. EXPECTING RAIN TO END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
AND LATE TODAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VT...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VT.  EXPECTING CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND THEN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND NORTHERN VT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

NEW GFS MODEL INDICATES THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WAS COVERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 020121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
920 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES TO DEAL WITH EXITING PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND TIMING OF NEXT PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM THE
WEST TOWARD MORNING.  FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.  SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
FOG DUE TO THE RAIN THAT FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP MOST AREAS AND WILL ADD TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD MORNING.  THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  SOUTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT
SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY.  GOING FORECAST OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND
THE FIRST PERIOD.

STORMS IN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING PRODUCED
MANY REPORTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS BEFORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCURRED.  HAD POWER LINES DOWN IN PITTSFORD...RUTLAND
COUNTY...AROUND 600 PM.  POWER LINES WERE ALSO REPORTED DOWN IN
MINERVA...ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...AT 445 PM.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.









FXUS61 KBTV 012321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO DROP SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. ALSO...LOWERED POPS ACRS WESTERN CWA BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND CRNT POSITION OF SFC FRNT. ALSO...BASED ON
CRNT OBS ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG ACRS ST LAWRENCE AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES. FINALLY...ADJUSTED WINDS AND REMOVED
BECOMING WORDING TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES IN THE WIND
DEPARTMENT.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WATER VAPOR AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD AS TROF FROM CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES NE CONUS. THE
COMBINATION OF RRQ OF 140KT JET AND STRONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
VORTS ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NY INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT 5H MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACRS WESTERN NY
AND UPSTREAM WAVE OVER CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...BASED
ON RAOB DATA ACRS THE REGION MODELS ARE UNDER ESTIMATING 25H JET ACRS
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY 10 TO 20 KTS. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS PLACE
COLD FRNT ACRS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRNT WL PUSH ACRS CWA THIS EVENING AND WL BE FOCUS FOR
RW/TSTM. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE
U40S/L50S. THIS AREA ACRS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR SVR WX POT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...SVR WX POT WL BE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
GENERAL RA. SFC FRNT ACRS WESTERN NY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL
PUSH ACRS CWA THIS EVENING. GOOD LLVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS
PUSHED ALONG SFC FRNT INTO CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FLOW/STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS FLOW ACRS EASTERN VT FROM
THE ATLANTIC...WHICH IS ADVECTING IN COOL/STABLE MARITIME AIR INTO
OUR CWA. MESO-ETA SHOWS GOOD LLVL WIND SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY
REACHING OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG...TT'S NEAR 50...AND LI'S
BWTN ZERO AND -1 OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. FEEL THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LLVL JET AND GOOD SFC/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRNT WL HELP
IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TS ACRS OUR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK TO SOUTHERN
VT ZONES THIS EVENING. GIVEN CRNT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS FEEL
SMALL HAIL/MARGINALLY WIND GUSTS WL BE PRIMARY SVR THREATS FOR ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LINE OF RW/TS WL PUSH SOUTH OF CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AS SFC FRNT STALLS ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES. PROGGED MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM BUFKIT AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NE CONUS AS SW FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED S/W'S CONTINUE IN FLOW ALOFT. THESE S/W'S WL HELP
ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE FRNT ACRS SOUTHERN NY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE OVERRIDING FRNT AND
GOOD 7H FG FEEL RAIN WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
WITH GOOD FG...STRONG UVM...AND GOOD UL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
25H JET FEEL MOST OF CWA WL RECEIVE 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
BUFKIT SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CAPE NEAR KRUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...
COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
EMBEDDED TS. HOWEVER...WL NOT MENTION GIVEN PROGGED LLVL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WL ONLY BE IN THE
50S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRNT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM
CANADA. MOISTURE PROGGES SUGGEST CLRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACRS CWA AND SKIES WL BE MS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAK DOWN AS VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY APPROACHES CWA FROM SW. ONCE AGAIN TIMING SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW IS DIFFICULT. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC FOR RW
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE NE CONUS BY WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 10C SUGGEST HIGH INTO THE 60S/70S ON TUESDAY. WEAK CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND S/W AND SFC FRNT WEDS INTO THURSDAY AND TEMPS WL COOL BACK
INTO THE U50S/60S. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL KEEP LATE WEDS
INTO THURSDAY DRY ATTM.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER





FXUS61 KBTV 012034
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
434 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES. ALSO...DROPPED PREVIOUS SVR
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FCST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SVR WX POT THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR
PRECIP AND TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

WATER VAPOR AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD AS TROF FROM CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES NE CONUS. THE
COMBINATION OF RRQ OF 140KT JET AND STRONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
VORTS ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NY INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT 5H MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACRS WESTERN NY
AND UPSTREAM WAVE OVER CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...BASED
ON RAOB DATA ACRS THE REGION MODELS ARE UNDER ESTIMATING 25H JET ACRS
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY 10 TO 20 KTS. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS PLACE
COLD FRNT ACRS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRNT WL PUSH ACRS CWA THIS EVENING AND WL BE FOCUS FOR
RW/TSTM. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE
U40S/L50S. THIS AREA ACRS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR SVR WX POT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...SVR WX POT WL BE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
GENERAL RA. SFC FRNT ACRS WESTERN NY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL
PUSH ACRS CWA THIS EVENING. GOOD LLVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS
PUSHED ALONG SFC FRNT INTO CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FLOW/STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS FLOW ACRS EASTERN VT FROM
THE ATLANTIC...WHICH IS ADVECTING IN COOL/STABLE MARITIME AIR INTO
OUR CWA. MESO-ETA SHOWS GOOD LLVL WIND SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY
REACHING OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG...TT'S NEAR 50...AND LI'S
BWTN ZERO AND -1 OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. FEEL THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LLVL JET AND GOOD SFC/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRNT WL HELP
IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TS ACRS OUR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK TO SOUTHERN
VT ZONES THIS EVENING. GIVEN CRNT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS FEEL
SMALL HAIL/MARGINALLY WIND GUSTS WL BE PRIMARY SVR THREATS FOR ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LINE OF RW/TS WL PUSH SOUTH OF CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AS SFC FRNT STALLS ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES. PROGGED MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM BUFKIT AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NE CONUS AS SW FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED S/W'S CONTINUE IN FLOW ALOFT. THESE S/W'S WL HELP
ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE FRNT ACRS SOUTHERN NY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE OVERRIDING FRNT AND
GOOD 7H FG FEEL RAIN WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
WITH GOOD FG...STRONG UVM...AND GOOD UL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
25H JET FEEL MOST OF CWA WL RECEIVE 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
BUFKIT SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CAPE NEAR KRUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...
COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
EMBEDDED TS. HOWEVER...WL NOT MENTION GIVEN PROGGED LLVL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WL ONLY BE IN THE
50S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRNT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM
CANADA. MOISTURE PROGGES SUGGEST CLRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACRS CWA AND SKIES WL BE MS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAK DOWN AS VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY APPROACHES CWA FROM SW. ONCE AGAIN TIMING SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW IS DIFFICULT. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC FOR RW
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE NE CONUS BY WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 10C SUGGEST HIGH INTO THE 60S/70S ON TUESDAY. WEAK CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND S/W AND SFC FRNT WEDS INTO THURSDAY AND TEMPS WL COOL BACK
INTO THE U50S/60S. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL KEEP LATE WEDS
INTO THURSDAY DRY ATTM.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER





FXUS61 KBTV 011843
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

FCST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SVR WX POT THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR
PRECIP AND TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR FRANKLIN AND ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM...

WATER VAPOR AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD AS TROF FROM CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHES NE CONUS. THE
COMBINATION OF RRQ OF 140KT JET AND STRONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
VORTS ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NY INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT 5H MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACRS WESTERN NY
AND UPSTREAM WAVE OVER CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...BASED
ON RAOB DATA ACRS THE REGION MODELS ARE UNDER ESTIMATING 25H JET ACRS
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY 10 TO 20 KTS. MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS PLACE
COLD FRNT ACRS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRNT WL PUSH ACRS CWA THIS EVENING AND WL BE FOCUS FOR
RW/TSTM. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE
U40S/L50S. THIS AREA ACRS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR SVR WX POT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...SVR WX POT WL BE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
GENERAL RA. SFC FRNT ACRS WESTERN NY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL
PUSH ACRS CWA THIS EVENING. GOOD LLVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAS
PUSHED ALONG SFC FRNT INTO CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FLOW/STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS FLOW ACRS EASTERN VT FROM
THE ATLANTIC...WHICH IS ADVECTING IN COOL/STABLE MARITIME AIR INTO
OUR CWA. MESO-ETA SHOWS GOOD LLVL WIND SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY
REACHING OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG...TT'S NEAR 50...AND LI'S
BWTN ZERO AND -1 OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. FEEL THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LLVL JET AND GOOD SFC/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRNT WL HELP
IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TS ACRS OUR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK TO SOUTHERN
VT ZONES THIS EVENING. GIVEN CRNT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS FEEL
SMALL HAIL/MARGINALLY WIND GUSTS WL BE PRIMARY SVR THREATS FOR ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LINE OF RW/TS WL PUSH SOUTH OF CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AS SFC FRNT STALLS ACRS MID ATLANTIC STATES. PROGGED MOISTURE
PROFILES FROM BUFKIT AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPS WL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NE CONUS AS SW FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED S/W'S CONTINUE IN FLOW ALOFT. THESE S/W'S WL HELP
ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE FRNT ACRS SOUTHERN NY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE OVERRIDING FRNT AND
GOOD 7H FG FEEL RAIN WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
WITH GOOD FG...STRONG UVM...AND GOOD UL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
25H JET FEEL MOST OF CWA WL RECEIVE 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
BUFKIT SHOWS SOME ELEVATED CAPE NEAR KRUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...
COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
EMBEDDED TS. HOWEVER...WL NOT MENTION GIVEN PROGGED LLVL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WL ONLY BE IN THE
50S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRNT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA FROM
CANADA. MOISTURE PROGGES SUGGEST CLRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACRS CWA AND SKIES WL BE MS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAK DOWN AS VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY APPROACHES CWA FROM SW. ONCE AGAIN TIMING SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW IS DIFFICULT. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC FOR RW
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE NE CONUS BY WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 10C SUGGEST HIGH INTO THE 60S/70S ON TUESDAY. WEAK CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND S/W AND SFC FRNT WEDS INTO THURSDAY AND TEMPS WL COOL BACK
INTO THE U50S/60S. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL KEEP LATE WEDS
INTO THURSDAY DRY ATTM.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER




   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

283
ASUS51 KBTV 021105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-021200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  46  45  96 NW10      29.88R FOG
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  49  49 100 CALM      29.89R FOG
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  49  47  93 NE3       29.88S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     50  48  93 CALM      29.85S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    52  48  87 N5        29.84S VSB<1/4
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       57  57 100 CALM      29.83S VSB 1/2
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    59  57  93 CALM      29.80F FOG
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                        5:00pm Thursday May 1, 2003
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Janna Brown
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

                    Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm

   Tonight:  There  is  a  chance for thunderstorms this evening, some of
   which  may  be severe. So, keep your eye on the sky tonight and try to
   stay  home!  These  storms  and showers will change over to light rain
   showers later this evening. Overnight temperatures will be quite mild,
   dropping  to  the  upper 40's. Winds will be from the south near 10mph
   changing to the north.

   Friday:  Rain  showers  will  be  light  in the morning hours but will
   become  steady  as  the  day  progresses. Highs will be slightly below
   normal,  ranging  from 53 to 58 degrees. Northerly winds will make way
   for chillier conditions.

   Friday  night:  There  is  a  chance  for showers in the early evening
   hours,  however  skies  will gradually begin to clear up. Lows will be
   between 35 and 40 degrees accompanied by a chilly northerly wind at 10
   to 15mph.

   Saturday:  The sun will return to the Northeast Kingdom today allowing
   temperatures  to climb into the upper 50's. There will be a mix of sun
   and  clouds throughout the day, so any outdoor activities should go on
   as  planned, but watch out for puddles! Skies will remain mostly clear
   overnight allowing chilly temperatures in the low 30's.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday: Another beautiful day in store for the Northeast! Temperatures
   will  warm  up  to  average with a high in the mid 60's. Skies will be
   mostly  sunny making it a great day for a barbecue! Evening skies will
   stay mostly clear and lows will be in the upper 30's.

   Monday:  Expect  partly  cloudy  skies  with  highs in the upper 60's.
   Clouds  will be on the increase in the evening and lows will be in the
   mid to upper 30's.

   Tuesday:  The  day  will begin with mostly cloudy skies in the morning
   with a chance for rain by the early afternoon hours. Temperstures will
   get quite warm, reaching the mid to upper 60's. Overnight lows will be
   between 38 and 42 degrees.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Temperatures  have  been  chilly  and slightly below average this past
   week  in  the  region.  However, relief is on the way! Over the next 5
   days  we  are going to see a gradual increase in temperatures. By this
   weekend,  conditions  will  be  sunny  and beautiful with highs in the
   60's.  Unfortunatly,  before  we can enjoy the spring weather, we will
   have  to  deal  with  the rain moving into the area for Friday. On the
   bright  side, the much needed rain will improve the soil and gardening
   conditions.  This  weekend will be the perfect time to get outside and
   work  in  the  garden temperatures will be delightful, the sun will be
   shining,  and  the  rain showers from today and tomorrow will make way
   for a pleasent gardening experience!

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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