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SKIVT-L  November 2003, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2003, Week 3

Subject:

The Skiing Weatherman has good news...

From:

Michael Bernstein <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 21 Nov 2003 14:11:23 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (106 lines)

Herb Stevens sez...

Mild weather to linger for another week...

Weather Discussion 11/20/03

First of all, I have to apologize for this first weather discussion being
later than normal. For a variety of reasons, getting all the “ducks in a
row” for the start of my television report season has been more difficult
than in years past, and I am working on a new broadcast venture that I
hope will be announced in the near future. Throw in trips to school to
pick up the kids, basketball practice, yoga classes (if you are a skier or
rider, don’t laugh…nothing is better for getting you ready for the season)
and there you have it…I’m late.

“Alright, enough with the mea culpas…how about some weather talk?” Okay.
First of all, let’s address the Pacific Ocean…what’s out there? La Nina,
El Nino, La Nada? Actually, the signal from the Pacific is neutral right
now. There are some signs that we could see a V-E-R-Y weak El Nino develop
this winter, but before you panic, keep in mind that historically, weak El
Nino’s normally result in above normal snow in much of the eastern U.S.
Again, the operative word is weak, and in reality, I don’t think it’s
going to be a factor.

Last year at this time, the northern hemisphere was blanketed with near-
record snow cover. As you might expect, snow cover helps to keep cold air
masses cold as they flow out of the northern latitudes. Fast-forward to
early October this year, and the northern hemisphere snow cover was
lagging considerably. By the end of the month, it was back in near-record
territory again (I sound like I am reporting on Wall Street!). This bodes
well for the prospects for snowmaking leading up to the holidays.

Although the water temperature distribution in the Pacific gets all the
press, in recent years, meteorologists, climatologists and weather weenies
everywhere have started to pay more attention to water temps in the
Atlantic, and specifically, how they correlate with east coast storm
formation and the sign of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A negative NAO,
which occurs when an upper level ridge parks over the North Atlantic,
lends itself to cold air in the East, and also storm tracks that don’t
turn out to sea so easily. When the waters of the North Atlantic are
warmer than normal, and a stripe of cooler than normal water lies south of
it, it has seemed to favor a negative NAO. That is the distribution patter
that we have right now, and as we head for Thanksgiving, the upper pattern
is starting to undergo a change that will bring winter to the East in the
next ten days to two weeks.

For the bulk of the past month, an upper level trough has resided in the
West, and that part of the country has enjoyed bountiful early season
snows. As a result, the season is off to a very fast start in CO, NM, UT,
CA, WY, OR, and WA. The jet stream has been flowing straight in from the
northwest, and the mountains have been wringing out the moisture. At the
same time, an upper level ridge has been parked over the southeastern
U.S., and temperatures have been above normal in much of the East. Not as
much above as you might think, however, because there have been two cold
outbreaks that have tempered the numbers. Those outbreaks were enough to
allow resorts from Sugar Mountain, NC to Mont Sainte Anne in Quebec to
open. Northern Vermont actually got tagged with one to two feet of snow a
week ago, as a deepening upper level low passed overhead. With the ground
still relatively warm, and with mild temps arriving earlier this week, the
snow pack got eaten at from both sides.

The upper low that is passing out to see late this week in the east is
helping to set up the blocking pattern that will ultimately lead to cold
air moving into the East. By transferring warm air northward, from the
southwest Atlantic into the Atlantic provinces of Quebec, the building of
the upper level high will be assisted. As the high strengthens over
northeast Canada during the next week, colder air will flow into the
country from Canada, first entering the U.S. in the northern Rockies and
northern Plains, two regions that will have a very cold weekend, with a
good deal of snow, too, as a low forms in the lee of the Rockies and heads
north northeastward through the western lakes. Minnesota is in for a
weekend blizzard. As that low heads into Canada, a trailing cold front
will move to the east coast by Tuesday morning. By that time, the trailing
air mass will have modified so much that it will only return temps to
normal in the East. The next cold front, which will move through on
Thanksgiving, will bring an air mass that travels over more snow covered
ground, thanks to the weekend storm, so it will result in another step
down in the temperature regime in the East. And that’s the way I see the
East getting into winter…by a series of small steps, rather than with the
arrival of a blob or arctic air.

Thanksgiving skiing and riding will be much more limited than a year
before, but there should be enough cold air around next week for at least
limited snowmaking in much of the region. By the time we get into the
first week of December, the southeastern ridge will have been trampled,
the eastern Canadian block will have strengthened, and more and more cold
air will have flowed southeastward. With residual warmth in the south, a
negative NAO, and cold air in abundant supply, the time will come for snow
hounds to get excited. That time is ten days to two weeks away, but it’s
coming, of that you can be sure. I’ll have my next discussion early next
week, and I’ll talk a little more about my thoughts for the upcoming
winter…relax…it looks okay…not a record breaker, but it looks pretty
solid. Until then, finish up the yard work, play the last round of golf,
and get ready…winter’s lurking.



Check it out here so we are not bleeding away his traffic:

http://www.skiingweatherman.com/weather.php

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