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SCIENCE-FOR-THE-PEOPLE  April 2004

SCIENCE-FOR-THE-PEOPLE April 2004

Subject:

The future is here: Introduction to Predictive Markets

From:

Maurice Bazin <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Science for the People Discussion List <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 15 Apr 2004 12:51:14 -0300

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (139 lines)

Dear friends,
I once thought that MIT's Technology Review would be interesting to
browse through...
So, today, I got the letter that follows and makes me feel very
estranged from their present, not to mention how estranged I will
become from their supposed future.
What is all this about, from our "radically analytical" perspective"?


> From: "Technology Review" <[log in to unmask]>
> Date:  abr 14, 2004
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Introduction to Predictive Markets
> Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
Dear Technology Review Reader,

Last summer much was made about the Pentagon's plans to launch a market
that predicted future acts of terrorism. While terror-themed markets
are understandably controversial predictive markets do have powerful
applications in fields other than terrorism. Predictive markets are
based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which suggests the collective
wisdom of a group is greater than the individual wisdom of a single
person.

To illustrate, the process of valuing a company is a fairly arduous
task for a single person. That person might speak with company
executives, customers, and competitors in order to make an educated
guess about the company's future cash flows. Alternatively, the public
stock markets do a good job of valuing companies by aggregating
information that a lot of different people have. The market quickly
"prices in" new information by driving a stock price up or down.

A market's ability to aggregate information can be used to forecast a
variety of future events.

Technology Review's Innovation Futures marketplace is designed to
forecast the outcome of events related to emerging technology and
business trends.

For example:

When will there be a commercially available electronic device using
ultra wideband technology? According to our audience, there is an 85.5%
probability that a device using ultra wideband technology will not be
publicly available before 7/1/04.
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/market/market.html?_sym=UWB01

When will Google have an IPO? According to our audience, there is an
84% probability that the IPO will not occur before June 2004.
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/market/market.html?_sym=GOOGLE01

What will be the Q1 2004 worldwide Linux server revenue? According to
our audience, there is a 73.5% probability that the Q1 2004 worldwide
Linux server revenue will exceed $1.1 billion.
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/market/market.html?_sym=LINUX1Q04

In order to participate in these markets, simply complete our free
registration. Once you are registered, you will be allocated 10,000
virtual trading dollars. The sharpest traders are awarded prizes. Past
prizes have included flat screen TVs and other electronics gear. Come
to trade or to glimpse into the future of technology and business.

~Technology Review Innovation Futures
Dear Technology Review Reader,

Last summer much was made about the Pentagon's plans to launch a market
that predicted future acts of terrorism. While terror-themed markets
are understandably controversial predictive markets do have powerful
applications in fields other than terrorism. Predictive markets are
based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which suggests the collective
wisdom of a group is greater than the individual wisdom of a single
person.

To illustrate, the process of valuing a company is a fairly arduous
task for a single person. That person might speak with company
executives, customers, and competitors in order to make an educated
guess about the company's future cash flows. Alternatively, the public
stock markets do a good job of valuing companies by aggregating
information that a lot of different people have. The market quickly
"prices in" new information by driving a stock price up or down.

A market's ability to aggregate information can be used to forecast a
variety of future events.

Technology Review's Innovation Futures marketplace is designed to
forecast the outcome of events related to emerging technology and
business trends.

For example:

When will there be a commercially available electronic device using
ultra wideband technology? According to our audience, there is an 85.5%
probability that a device using ultra wideband technology will not be
publicly available before 7/1/04.
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/market/market.html?_sym=UWB01

When will Google have an IPO? According to our audience, there is an
84% probability that the IPO will not occur before June 2004.
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/market/market.html?_sym=GOOGLE01

What will be the Q1 2004 worldwide Linux server revenue? According to
our audience, there is a 73.5% probability that the Q1 2004 worldwide
Linux server revenue will exceed $1.1 billion.
http://trif.technologyreview.com/bk/market/market.html?_sym=LINUX1Q04

In order to participate in these markets, simply complete our free
registration. Once you are registered, you will be allocated 10,000
virtual trading dollars. The sharpest traders are awarded prizes. Past
prizes have included flat screen TVs and other electronics gear. Come
to trade or to glimpse into the future of technology and business.

~Technology Review Innovation Futures

If you no longer wish to receive email from Innovation Futures. you can
unsubscribe at:
[log in to unmask]http://trif.technologyreview.com/dm/user/
prefs.html

If you no longer wish to receive email from Technology Review, Inc. you
can unsubscribe from all communication at:
http://www.technologyreview.com/customerservice/optout.asp

To read our Privacy Policy go to:
http://www.technologyreview.com/trif/Terms.asp#2

Technology Review, Inc.
One Main Street, 7th Floor
Cambridge, MA 02142

>
>
Maurice Bazin
Rua Pau de Canela 1101
Campeche / Florianópolis
88063-505   Brasil

Tel: 55 48 237 3140
Fax: 55 48 338 2686 (may need oral warning; pode precisar avisar)

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