Expires:200404122000;;329621
FPUS51 KBTV 120840
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-122000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
440 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 45 TO 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN RAIN DEVELOPING LATE ...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR BEGINNING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR SLEET. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING SOUTHEAST. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STEADY IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS 55 TO 60. SOUTH WINDS 10 MPH
BECOMING WEST. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 25 TO 30.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 120937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
537 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE VLY TODAY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY ON
TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE ETA MODEL FOR TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. GFS MODEL TOO FAST IN BRING
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD TODAY. PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH OR BEGIN
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND GFS MODELS QPF FOR
THIS FORECAST. FELL ETA MODEL QPF UNDERDONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE HEAVIER QPF OF THE GFS MODEL...WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET MODEL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL IN THE LATE THIRD
PERIOD FOURTH PERIOD TIME FRAME WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
AT THIS TIME AND LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE THE SITUATION. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SHOW SOME RIVER BASINS WILL ONLY NEED 2
INCHES OR LESS IN 12 HOURS FOR FLOODING. WILL LIKELY SEE SHARP RISES
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...FEEL MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
HAVE GONE BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODEL SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP..ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING FOR NOW. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ADD TO FORECAST. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

GFS MODEL AND CANADIAN SEF MODEL NOW SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MRF...SO WILL REMOVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY
THURSDAY...AS ETA MODEL SUGGESTING SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 120109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
910 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

.UPDATE...
STLT LOOP SHWS CLDS CLRG OUT OF FA BUT STILL SOME CLDS UPSTREAM AND
SNDGS INDCT SHLW LL MSTR SO PTCLDY FCST LOOKS OK.  WITH LGT WINDS
AND LOW DWPTS MINS WILL SETTLE INTO 20S WITH SOME TEENS PSBL IN
ADRNDCKS/NE KINGDM VLYS (SLK ALRDY 26).  GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
SO NO CHGS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU THE PD WITH LGT/CALM WNDS TNGT AND NLY WINDS < 10 KTS MON.
CLR OR SCT SC/AC TNGT THEN MAINLY SCT-BKN HI CLDS WITH FEW CU MON.
&&

KJC

.PREV DISCUSSION...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG EAST ACRS ONT/QUE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE FA WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH P/C SKIES. CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 20S...THEN NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS MON WITH HIGHS 45 TO 55.

HIGH MOVES UP INTO MARITIMES MON NITE. CLOUDS ADVANCE QUICKLY NORTH
MON NITE WITH ONSET OF WAA...AND PCPN EXPECTED TO DVLP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION...ENHANCED BY SHRTWV LIFTING
OUT OF OH VLY PW/S ON THE RISE MON NITE...RISING TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES TUE PM/NITE. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST IT WL BE COOL ENOUGH AT
ONSET FOR SOME MXD PCPN NRN AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A MIX
FOR ONLY NE VT ATTM. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND SPEED OF SFC
LOW...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH QPF DURING THIS INTIAL STAGE OF
THE EVENT WITH WDSPRD AMTS AROUND 1 INCH BY TUE EVENING. MAV TEMPS
APPEAR TOO MILD FOR TUES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REGARDING TUE NITE/WED TIME
PERIOD. GFS QUICKER THAN ETA IN LIFTING CUTOFF LOW NEWRD. THEY
DIFFER IN PLACEMENT OF SFC LOWS AS WELL. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN QPF. ETA BRINGS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PCPN INTO FA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHILE AMTS ON GFS NOTICEABLY LESS (.25 TO
.75 INCHES) WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF JUST EAST OF FA.

GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE FIRST PCPN EVENT (MON NITE/TUE) WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING...AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF AMT OF PCPN
WHICH WILL FOLLOW IN LATER PERIODS...HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ESF
ATTM.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WL PROVIDE FA WITH UNSETTLED WX AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS ROTATING AROUND ULVL LOW AND SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE/LIFT WL KEEP MENTION OF POPS IN MOST PERIODS OF THE FCST.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS U40S/L50S WITH LOWS IN THE U30/L40S.
EXPECT LIMITED DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN FCST. WL
KEEP SAT DRY ATTM AS WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS FCST. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE CWA WITH PC SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. ON SUNDAY...NEXT SYSTEM IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT











FXUS61 KBTV 112018
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG EAST ACRS ONT/QUE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE FA WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH P/C SKIES. CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 20S...THEN NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS MON WITH HIGHS 45 TO 55.

HIGH MOVES UP INTO MARITIMES MON NITE. CLOUDS ADVANCE QUICKLY NORTH
MON NITE WITH ONSET OF WAA...AND PCPN EXPECTED TO DVLP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION...ENHANCED BY SHRTWV LIFTING
OUT OF OH VLY PW/S ON THE RISE MON NITE...RISING TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES TUE PM/NITE. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST IT WL BE COOL ENOUGH AT
ONSET FOR SOME MXD PCPN NRN AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A MIX
FOR ONLY NE VT ATTM. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND SPEED OF SFC
LOW...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH QPF DURING THIS INTIAL STAGE OF
THE EVENT WITH WDSPRD AMTS AROUND 1 INCH BY TUE EVENING. MAV TEMPS
APPEAR TOO MILD FOR TUES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REGARDING TUE NITE/WED TIME
PERIOD. GFS QUICKER THAN ETA IN LIFTING CUTOFF LOW NEWRD. THEY
DIFFER IN PLACEMENT OF SFC LOWS AS WELL. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN QPF. ETA BRINGS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PCPN INTO FA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHILE AMTS ON GFS NOTICEABLY LESS (.25 TO
.75 INCHES) WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF JUST EAST OF FA.

GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE FIRST PCPN EVENT (MON NITE/TUE) WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING...AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF AMT OF PCPN
WHICH WILL FOLLOW IN LATER PERIODS...HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ESF
ATTM.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WL PROVIDE FA WITH UNSETTLED WX AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL
EMBEDDED 5H VORTS ROTATING AROUND ULVL LOW AND SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE/LIFT WL KEEP MENTION OF POPS IN MOST PERIODS OF THE FCST.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS U40S/L50S WITH LOWS IN THE U30/L40S.
EXPECT LIMITED DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN FCST. WL
KEEP SAT DRY ATTM AS WEAK MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS ACRS FCST. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE CWA WITH PC SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. ON SUNDAY...NEXT SYSTEM IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

443
ASUS51 KBTV 121011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-121100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    26  20  77 E3        30.28R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     23  19  85 CALM      30.29R
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     21  19  92 CALM      30.29R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     23  20  88 CALM      30.26R
RUTLAND        PTCLDY    28  19  69 CALM      30.26R
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    26  21  81 CALM      30.28R
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    27  23  85 CALM      30.23R



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