Expires:200404132000;;352445
FPUS51 KBTV 130857
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
457 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-132000-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN
FRANKLIN VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL VT...ISLAND POND VT...
MONTPELIER VT...NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...RICHFORD VT...
ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT...UNDERHILL VT
457 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

.TODAY...RAIN...MAY MIX WITH OR BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
UNTIL MID MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100
PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS 40 TO 45. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HIGHS 50 TO 55. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH LATE IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING.
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 45 TO 50. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 25 TO 30.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 40.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 131003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
603 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION SOME SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BREAK AFTER THIS FIRST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE MORE RAIN
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA.

MODELS AGAIN DIFFERENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS TODAY...WITH THE ETA AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE GFS MODEL HAS
HEAVIEST QPF OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH THE ETA MODEL FOR
THIS FORECAST...AS THIS HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ETA QPF HAS HEAVIEST QPF OVER EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CONNECTICUT VLY. CONSENSUS AMONG NEIGHBORING OFFICES IS THAT QPF WILL
NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING FLOOD WATCHES. ALTHOUGH
SHARP RISES IN WATER LEVELS WILL BE LIKELY ON RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VERMONT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOOD PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...AS SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHES ZERO.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHTNING OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER...
BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVAULATE THIS.

SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING.

WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME MORNING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY EASTWARD...BUT ALL MODELS INDICATE
CLEARING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY.


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 130148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TARGET SO NO UPDATE NEEDED. WITH WARM FROM
ALOFT LIFTING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION 06-14Z. SOUNDINGS
MARGINAL FOR SNOW/SLEET BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS IN THE FAR
NORTH. 88D/VWP SHOWS CLOUDS LOWERING DOWN TO 10K FT WITH SOME
RETURNS NEAR 7K FT AS DOES ALY SOUNDING. MODELS INDICATING SOME
BREAK IN STEADY PRECIP TUES AM IN WARM SECTOR ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER ONSET OF PRECIP 04-06Z MPV TO
MSS. SOME MODERATURE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET OVER KSLK-KMSS
POSSIBLY KMPV BUT LEFT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
STEADY PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING. WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING PER GFS
ON TUES TRENDED TOWARD IFR BY 21Z. AT MPV IFR COULD COME MORE
QUICKLY WITH MARITIME SE FLOW. MOS GENERALLY HAS LIFR CAT FCSTS TUES
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOK TOO LOW BUT MAYBE NOT FOR 00Z WED. ENE WINDS
GENRLY 10-20KTS AT KMSS AND LIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 440 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACRS APPALACHIANS DURING THIS
FCST PERIOD...BRINGING SOAKING RAIN TO ALL OF FA. STLT PICS INDICATE
HIGH CLDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH TO CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITES SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RAIN MOVG INTO NRN PA...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN 12Z ETA INDICATED...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS. BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO REGARDING ONSET OF PCPN IN BTV CWA WILL HOLD...SO
EXPECT PCPN TO OVRSPRD FA BTWN 02Z AND 07Z. LLVLS VERY DRY...AND
DWPTS VERY LOW. SO WHILE IT MAY TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE THE
LLVLS...TEMP PROFILES AT ONSET OF PCPN SUGGEST MXD PCPN
...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES. HAVE MENTIONED A PSBL MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET.
SOME MINOR ACCUM (1-2 INCHES) PSBL NE VT. PCPN AMTS WITH THIS
INITIAL SURGE OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ASSOCD WITH WAA EXPECTED TO BE IN
1/2 INCH RANGE...WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY.

WHILE MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN TRACK OF SFC LOW TUE/TUE
NITE...THEY DIGRESS IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF MAX PCPN...DUE IN PART TO
DIFFERENCES IN STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER JET. GFS SHOWS MAX PCPN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD OVER NRN NY...WHILE ETA HAS MAX PCPN MUCH FURTHER
EAST. BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES CLOSER TO ETA...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD INDICATE ADDED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH ACRS THE RGN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS REGARDING QPF...HAVE ISSUED ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. SINCE ANY FLOOD THREAT WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
TUES NITE/WED...THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES
IF NEEDED.

WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSUR WED/WED NITE. GFS LOOKS A
BIT FAST IN OPENING THE UPPER LOW AND PROGRESSING IT EAST. HAVE GONE
A LITTLE CLOSER TO ETA SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...KEEPING
SHWRS LIKELY WED...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WED
NITE/THURS AM. IMPROVEMENT DURING THURS AS SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST OF
FA. ANY SHWRS EXPECTED TO END DURING AM...FOLLOWED BY CLRNG. LLVL
NORTHERLY FLOW WL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS IN ST LWR VLY AND NRN
CHMPLN VLYS.

&&
.EXTENDED...ENSEMBLES DATA AND LATEST GEM/GFS ARE MUCH QUICKER IN
MOVING MID/UPPER LVL LOW FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WL
BUILD INTO OUR FA AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM OHIO VALLEY
INTO NE CONUS. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECT MS
SKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM TO 4C BY FRI AFTN...WHICH WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S/L60S. SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY WEAK WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT/MOISTURE WL INCREASE CLOUDS AND CHCS FOR -RW. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. HOWEVER...WITH BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE LIFTING
INTO CANADA AND SFC COLD FRNT PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT FEEL FA WL
RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WX. SPRING MAY
FINALLY ARRIVE ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN L70S DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT











FXUS61 KBTV 122045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACRS APPALACHIANS DURING THIS
FCST PERIOD...BRINGING SOAKING RAIN TO ALL OF FA. STLT PICS INDICATE
HIGH CLDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH TO CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITES SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RAIN MOVG INTO NRN PA...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN 12Z ETA INDICATED...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS. BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO REGARDING ONSET OF PCPN IN BTV CWA WILL HOLD...SO
EXPECT PCPN TO OVRSPRD FA BTWN 02Z AND 07Z. LLVLS VERY DRY...AND
DWPTS VERY LOW. SO WHILE IT MAY TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE THE
LLVLS...TEMP PROFILES AT ONSET OF PCPN SUGGEST MXD PCPN
...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES. HAVE MENTIONED A PSBL MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET.
SOME MINOR ACCUM (1-2 INCHES) PSBL NE VT. PCPN AMTS WITH THIS
INITIAL SURGE OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ASSOCD WITH WAA EXPECTED TO BE IN
1/2 INCH RANGE...WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY.

WHILE MODELS SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN TRACK OF SFC LOW TUE/TUE
NITE...THEY DIGRESS IN THEIR PLACEMENT OF MAX PCPN...DUE IN PART TO
DIFFERENCES IN STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER JET. GFS SHOWS MAX PCPN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD OVER NRN NY...WHILE ETA HAS MAX PCPN MUCH FURTHER
EAST. BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES CLOSER TO ETA...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD INDICATE ADDED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH ACRS THE RGN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS REGARDING QPF...HAVE ISSUED ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. SINCE ANY FLOOD THREAT WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
TUES NITE/WED...THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES
IF NEEDED.

WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSUR WED/WED NITE. GFS LOOKS A
BIT FAST IN OPENING THE UPPER LOW AND PROGRESSING IT EAST. HAVE GONE
A LITTLE CLOSER TO ETA SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...KEEPING
SHWRS LIKELY WED...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WED
NITE/THURS AM. IMPROVEMENT DURING THURS AS SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST OF
FA. ANY SHWRS EXPECTED TO END DURING AM...FOLLOWED BY CLRNG. LLVL
NORTHERLY FLOW WL RESULT IN COOLEST TEMPS IN ST LWR VLY AND NRN
CHMPLN VLYS.

EXTENDED...ENSEMBLES DATA AND LATEST GEM/GFS ARE MUCH QUICKER IN
MOVING MID/UPPER LVL LOW FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WL
BUILD INTO OUR FA AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM OHIO VALLEY
INTO NE CONUS. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECT MS
SKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM TO 4C BY FRI AFTN...WHICH WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S/L60S. SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY WEAK WARM FRNT AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT/MOISTURE WL INCREASE CLOUDS AND CHCS FOR -RW. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. HOWEVER...WITH BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE LIFTING
INTO CANADA AND SFC COLD FRNT PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT FEEL FA WL
RECEIVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WX. SPRING MAY
FINALLY ARRIVE ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN L70S DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

RJS/BOT








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

081
ASUS51 KBTV 131011
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-131100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  39  34  82 E5        30.13F
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  34  33  96 CALM      30.19S
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  35  34  96 CALM      30.17F FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     35  35 100 CALM      30.16F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    36  30  80 SE20G37   30.08F
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  36  34  92 NE6       30.17F FOG
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  39  32  76 SE17G26   30.05R



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