Expires:200405061333;;582996
FPUS51 KBTV 230746
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-346133-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
346 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2004

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 16. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
50. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 230801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT)...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
FOCUSED ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
RAIN WORKING ALONG FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST. DYNAMICS WITH WK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP MVS EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY THEN OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WITH SFC HIGHS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF FORECASTED PRECIP...GOING WITH GFS MDL AND KEEPING PRECIP
NO FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF RUT/WIND CTYS.
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA STAY DRY TODAY. UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC SYSTEM MVS THRU EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. LATEST GFS HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
CWA WITH ENOUGH CAA ON NW FLOW BEHIND TROUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF
-SW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR OVERNITE PERIOD...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TO -RW DURNG THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
&&

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING OUT
REGION WITH NW FLOW. HIGH MVS OVER REGION SATURDAY NITE W/ CAA OVER
REGION ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A
COLD APRIL NIGHT. WILL TWEAK GUIDANCE FOR OVERNITE PERIOD. TEMPS IN
SOME AREAS WILL BE LOW. SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MV NE
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AS SFC HIGH MVS SE. LOW MVS NE INTO OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN NORTHEAST THRU WESTERN NY BY SUNDAY  NIGHT.
MDLS FORECASTING FAIR AMT OF PRECIP W/ THIS EVENT. CUREENT ZONES HAVE
CHANCE POPS AND WILL UPGRADE THOSE TO LOW LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER ST LAW VALL DURING THE ONSET...AND COORD W/ SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&

.EXTENDED...(MONDAY THRU THURSDAY)...SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF CWA BY
MONDAY...ALLOWING WRAP-AROUND TO WORK INTO REGION BY MON EVENING.
ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD WORK IN WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE TO GIVE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOME LIGHT SW. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT
CHANGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

JN





FXUS61 KBTV 230207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT THU APR 22 2004

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A THICK BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST ARE ATTM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF...SO WILL
LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS WELL. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA...WILL ALSO BOOST UP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
18Z GFS MODEL RUNS BRINGS RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...
SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTHEAST VERMONT.  WESTERLY COMPONENT
HAS LED TO SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE OVER BY EARLY TONIGHT AND COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.  VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS
IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ESSENTIALLY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC AND BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SUCH THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE AGAIN COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. STRONG DRYING TO TAKE PLACE AT THE SAME TIME
WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOW DEW POINTS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY AT NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
FULL FORCE.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AND
ALLOWS MOVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OHIO VALLEY TO
SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM (MON THRU THURS)...
MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO
GOING FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 5H MOVES THROUGH THE
GREATLAKES...AND THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS EAST.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRAGS A
COLDFRONT THRU THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE UPPER TROF LAGS THE COLDFRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...FELT IT PRUDENT TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY FOR SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS TEMPS FALLING TO 0 TO -4C...AND LOWERING
1000HPA-500 HPA THICKNESS THAT COULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY.

HEIGHTS RISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN US. MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BORDER...AND LAST TWO
DAYS OF FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 221906
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
306 PM EDT THU APR 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTHEAST VERMONT.  WESTERLY COMPONENT
HAS LED TO SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE OVER BY EARLY TONIGHT AND COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.  VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS
IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ESSENTIALLY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WHILE THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC AND BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SUCH THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE AGAIN COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. STRONG DRYING TO TAKE PLACE AT THE SAME TIME
WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  LOW DEW POINTS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY AT NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
FULL FORCE.

NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AND
ALLOWS MOVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OHIO VALLEY TO
SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MON THRU THURS)...
MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...AND CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO
GOING FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 5H MOVES THROUGH THE
GREATLAKES...AND THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS EAST.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRAGS A
COLDFRONT THRU THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE UPPER TROF LAGS THE COLDFRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...FELT IT PRUDENT TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY FOR SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS TEMPS FALLING TO 0 TO -4C...AND LOWERING
1000HPA-500 HPA THICKNESS THAT COULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY.

HEIGHTS RISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN US. MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BORDER...AND LAST TWO
DAYS OF FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.VT...NONE.
.NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

702
ASUS51 KBTV 231010
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI APR 23 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-231100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    37  29  72 N10       30.21R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  31  67 CALM      30.20R
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    38  30  73 VRB3      30.20R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     41  30  65 VRB6      30.16R
RUTLAND        MOCLDY    43  36  75 N5        30.16R
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      46  43  89 N3        30.16R
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  45  43  93 SW5       30.12R



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